UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[136or142]

There's panic on the streets of carlisle, dublin, dundee, humberside.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I feel genuinely queasy right now. Center-right 'managerial' 'modernizing' types or whatever the [Inks] along those general lines Cameron is are almost the literal exact opposite of appealing to me.

[jaichind]

Political betting markets at  

Con 306 .. Lab 252 .. LibDem 26.5 .. SNP 46.5

So the exit polls it not completely believed.

[Gallium]

YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48

This has a sample size of 6000. The BBC one has 20,000...

Increase in polling size after 2,000 respondents has almost no effect on the margin of error.

Nationwide - you are right. But the point of polling 20,000 is to have constituency samples.

Also the Yougov poll isn't even an exit poll, it's a recontact survey.

[ag]

Sunderland is being slow

[136or142]

Political betting markets at  

Con 306 .. Lab 252 .. LibDem 26.5 .. SNP 46.5

So the exit polls it not completely believed.

I wouldn't want to be one of those M.Ps cut in half!

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Political betting markets at  

Con 306 .. Lab 252 .. LibDem 26.5 .. SNP 46.5

So the exit polls it not completely believed.

That still sickening, if not even more so because it gives ConDem a larger majority.

[ObserverIE]

I feel a little sick.

Why? Five years from now you may be living in an independent Scotland. Alternatively you may be living in a Scotland where the Tories are doing a Mariano Rajoy on you.

[Clyde1998]

"BBC: Labour looks set to suffer a hammering in Scotland at the hands of the SNP, with their vote dropping an average of 18%."

[The Free North]

Is there a map where live results are being uploaded to?

[ag]

Is there a map where live results are being uploaded to?

http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results

[Lief 🗽]

The guy who did the exit poll says Lib Dems got about 8% nationally (like the polls said), but no incumbency advantage.

[Vosem]

Is there a map where live results are being uploaded to?

Yes, there are many such, but in Britain partial results are never reported -- seats announce the total vote figures when they have counted all votes. Thus, so far all maps are blank.

The guy who did the exit poll says Lib Dems got about 8% nationally (like the polls said), but no incumbency advantage.

All 10 who won had an incumbency advantage, I'd imagine.

[Lief 🗽]

LABOUR HOLD A SEAT

[The Free North]

Is there a map where live results are being uploaded to?

Yes, there are many such, but in Britain partial results are never reported -- seats announce the total vote figures when they have counted all votes. Thus, so far all maps are blank.

How long does it usually take for all results to filter in?

[Donnie]

Sunderland Central

                       2010          2015

Labour             19,495         21,218
Conservative     12,770         7,105
Liberal Dem.       7,191           791

[Lief 🗽]

^^holy crap the lib dems, absolute decimation (behind the Greens even!!)

[Gallium]

Electoral Calculus who were most accurate at the 2010 election are predicting:

CON = 280

LAB = 274

LIB DEM = 21

SNP = 52

[Iosif]

UKIP second in Sunderland!

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Sunderland Central

                       2010          2015

Labour             19,495         21,218
Conservative     12,770         7,105
Liberal Dem.       7,191           791

That's not that bad, but of course swing isn't going to be uniform.

[Clyde1998]

Houghton & Sunderland South:
Lab - 21,218 (+4.8%)
UKIP - 8,280 (+18.8%)
Con - 7,105 (-3.0%)
Grn - 1,095
Lib - 791

Labour hold.

[Diouf]

So generally John Curtice suggest that the polls were not much wrong, perhaps expect a slightly better Conservative performance, but that the seat predictors have done a poor job. The Lib Dems and Labour in Scotland have lost by far more in their strongest constituencies than  the seat predictors expected, and therefore will have lost some seats by enormeous swings.

[Lief 🗽]

okay when are the BBC going to whip out the SWINGOMETER

[Iosif]

okay when are the BBC going to whip out the SWINGOMETER

Too many parties, too many tactical voters.

[Kushahontas]

cute MP #superficial