UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[ChrisDR68]

I predict the result will be inbetween the exit poll and the YouGov poll of today...

[SPQR]

Labour sources say Farage ends up third in South Thanet.

[jaichind]

Political markets


CON   307
LAB    250
LD        15.5
UKIP      3
SNP     54.5

More convergence toward exit poll results

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I actually really like David Cameron as a person, but then I think Madeleine and I have noticed before that we have opposite opinions on this sort of thing.

To be fair we have opposite opinions on most things.

True, true. Still a pleasure to talk with you usually

Likewise.

[Lief 🗽]

lol, apparently the ballot boxes in Ed Balls' district haven't even been opened yet, they just arrived...

[Simfan34]

Labour sources say Farage ends up third in South Thanet.

They're getting pretty desperate...

[BaconBacon96]

Labour sources say Farage ends up third in South Thanet.

Ha.

[MaxQue]

Labour sources say Farage ends up third in South Thanet.

Those are baseless Twitter rumours, as with every count.

[ChrisDR68]

Kay Burley on Sky is saying the Tory vote is up on 2010 and the Labour vote is down.

That cannot be right.

There's no way Labour is lower than 29%!!!

[The Free North]

Rockefeller ice > tile map

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I heard [spins wheel] Caroline Flint lost by [rolls dice] a whopping margin to [throws dart] the BNP. Source: A friend of a friend's dad works for Cameron.

[Lief 🗽]

LAB 2, CON 0.

end the election now

and Lib Dem in FIFTH PLACE again, rofl

[Clyde1998]

Sunderland Central
Lab - 20,959
Con - 9,780
UKIP - 7,997
Grn - 1,706
Lib - 1,105
Indy - 215

Labour hold.

[Vosem]

538 had H&SW as 59% Labour, 22% Tories, 13% UKIP. The actual results were 55% Labour, 21% UKIP, 19% Tories. Of course the 538 model has been criticized by many here, and with good reason, but it reflects 'conventional wisdom' about this election pretty well. Now, UKIP won't be up 8% on polling numbers all around the country, but if they are in some places, that's a very good sign for them. I would feel encouraged right now if I was Farage.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

How do we think Children of the Atom will do in Shrewsbury?

[Torie]

lol, apparently the ballot boxes in Ed Balls' district haven't even been opened yet, they just arrived...

I assume it's based on the exit poll. But if the UKIP vote votes Tory, he's probably done for. That is one of the things in play here - are UKIP voters voting Tory where the Tory is in the hunt, and UKIP is not, otherwise voting UKIP, draining votes from from Labour. Labour's vote in Sunderland went up because of the LD collapse, while at the same time Labour was losing votes to the UKIP, is what I strongly suspect. That is a very dangerous dynamic for Labour if that is what is going on.

[Lief 🗽]

Lab +4, Tories -7 in Sunderland Central...

[Lief 🗽]

lol, apparently the ballot boxes in Ed Balls' district haven't even been opened yet, they just arrived...

I assume it's based on the exit poll. But if the UKIP vote votes Tory, he's probably done for. That is one of the things in play here - are UKIP voters voting Tory where the Tory is in the hunt, and UKIP is not, otherwise voting UKIP, draining votes from from Labour. Labour's vote in Sunderland went up because of the LD collapse, while at the same time Labour was losing votes to the UKIP, is what I strongly suspect. That is a very dangerous dynamic for Labour if that is what is going on.

Maybe, but UKIP has been doing better than predicted in the first two seats.

[ObserverIE]

How do we think Children of the Atom will do in Shrewsbury?

Outpoll the Lib Dems?

[Lief 🗽]

These two seats seem a lot closer to the consensus before the election than they do to the exit poll, at least to my untrained eye.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

How do we think Children of the Atom will do in Shrewsbury?

Outpoll the Lib Dems?

#LibDemSwag

[Thomas D]

What does "Lost deposit" mean?

[ag]

lol, apparently the ballot boxes in Ed Balls' district haven't even been opened yet, they just arrived...

I assume it's based on the exit poll. But if the UKIP vote votes Tory, he's probably done for. That is one of the things in play here - are UKIP voters voting Tory where the Tory is in the hunt, and UKIP is not, otherwise voting UKIP, draining votes from from Labour. Labour's vote in Sunderland went up because of the LD collapse, while at the same time Labour was losing votes to the UKIP, is what I strongly suspect. That is a very dangerous dynamic for Labour if that is what is going on.

Maybe, but UKIP has been doing better than predicted in the first two seats.

These are safe Labour seats. UKIP people could vote their preference without benefiting Lab.

[YL]

These two seats seem a lot closer to the consensus before the election than they do to the exit poll, at least to my untrained eye.

True, but apparently the exit poll thought that Labour did OK in the North East, where those seats are.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Be careful about jumping to conclusions.