UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[morgieb]

People need to calm down, only 3 seats have been counted and they look more like the pre-election polling than exit polling.

[The Free North]

[Talleyrand]

People need to calm down, only 3 seats have been counted and they look more like the pre-election polling than exit polling.

The exit poll has been spot on for those seats. It predicted Labour doing relatively better in the NE than the rest of the country.

[Cubby]

I would caution about taking the individual seat projections especially seriously. They might be right, but...

The safest non-SNP seat in Scotland is probably Orkney & Shetland, which are two islands far to Scotland's north that are absolutely safe for the Lib Dems, that basically stayed as a Liberal stronghold through their whole mid-20th century wilderness period.

Okay, got it.

Well at least its not all decided yet, I thought I'd missed most of the fun.

Its too bad Labour stuck with Miliband. If they had someone more charismatic, they might have had a shot. But they said, "you know what, we're fine the way we are".

[Cubby]

I'm following The Daily Telegraph & The Guardian, because the American media sucks and wouldn't follow a foreign election if it's life depended on it.

The former says the SNP won every seat but one in Scotland. What is the one seat and what is the party that won it? It'd be hilarious if it was that one seat in the Southwest that the Tories already have. Its like Dumfries or something.

The safest non-SNP seat in Scotland is probably Orkney & Shetland, which are two islands far to Scotland's north that are absolutely safe for the Lib Dems, that basically stayed as a Liberal stronghold through their whole mid-20th century wilderness period.

Is that the one with the Naval Base? I seem to recall Scapa Flow being up there

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I know this is a different election but let's remember the Israeli exit poll had ZU and Likud both at equal proportions and they ended up pretty damn wrong. It's not over till it's over.

[morgieb]

People need to calm down, only 3 seats have been counted and they look more like the pre-election polling than exit polling.

The exit poll has been spot on for those seats. It predicted Labour doing relatively better in the NE than the rest of the country.

Did they also predict a UKIP surge?

[AelroseB]

I know this is a different election but let's remember the Israeli exit poll had ZU and Likud both at equal proportions and they ended up pretty damn wrong. It's not over till it's over.

That was conducted days before the election, and this poll was conducted with actual voters.

[MalaspinaGold]

I know this is a different election but let's remember the Israeli exit poll had ZU and Likud both at equal proportions and they ended up pretty damn wrong. It's not over till it's over.

That was conducted days before the election, and this poll was conducted with actual voters.

No, they were conducted in the same fashion.

[Talleyrand]

People need to calm down, only 3 seats have been counted and they look more like the pre-election polling than exit polling.

The exit poll has been spot on for those seats. It predicted Labour doing relatively better in the NE than the rest of the country.

Did they also predict a UKIP surge?

I have no idea, but they said it was on track with the poll, so I assume it's another NE-specific thing they picked up on.

[YL]

More possibly dodgy rumours, but suggestions that Labour may have held some of the Edinburgh seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

[BaconBacon96]

Suggestions that Galloway might be struggling in Bradford West.

GOOD. He deserves it.

[Phony Moderate]

Anyone else temped to go on a Donald Trump-style Twitter meltdown?

[Diouf]

Nate Silver writes that 292 - 305 seats for the Conservatives and 240 - 263 seats for Labour would be within the 90 percent confidence interval of both the exit poll and of their forecast.


Liveblog here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Suggestions that Galloway might be struggling in Bradford West.

GOOD. He deserves it.

[Colbert]

If Britain is divisible, Scotland must be divisible.

syllogism used ad nauseam by quebecers traitors in 1995

[bullmoose88]

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

Are Tory voters voting ukip in safe lab seats for the hell of it?

[Torie]

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

The thing is, is where the Tory and the Labour vote, is close, the UKIP's who defect from the LD's and Labour, vote Tory rather than for the UKIP candidate. It's all about strategic voting. If the exit poll is right, the electorate has done that in rather massive numbers.

[Vosem]

If Britain is divisible, Scotland must be divisible.

Everybody is divisible in principle, but Scotland may prove harder to divide than Britain.

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

Are Tory voters voting ukip in safe lab seats for the hell of it?

No, but UKIP voters in Lab/Tory marginals are suspected to be backing the Tories rather than throwing their votes away. It'll be an interesting exercise, after this election, to plot margin vs. UKIP vote, to see if UKIP does better in noncompetitive seats (which I suspect is the case).

[Colbert]

F U, as it were.

Yes. I'm happy this underwood's vogue bring back FU on light

[Torie]

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

Are Tory voters voting ukip in safe lab seats for the hell of it?

Mostly Labour and LD voters doing so, with just some from the Tories. But these are working class Northern England seats. Not much gentry vote is in play.

[Clyde1998]

Danny Alexander set to lose his seat.

[Talleyrand]

Exit poll has Simon Hughes losing? Only Labour to Tory gains it "predicts" and Gedling and North East Derbyshire.

[ObserverIE]

Exit poll has Simon Hughes losing? Only Labour to Tory gains it "predicts" and Gedling and North East Derbyshire.

The predicted Labour -> Tory gains are all in the East Midlands.