UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[MaxQue]

I don't know much about Ian Murray, but the fact that he held on against the tide has to be a plus....

No, just no. The Scottish Labour leader ought to be a MSP sitting in Edinburgh, not an MP sitting in London.

[Silent Hunter]

I don't know much about Ian Murray, but the fact that he held on against the tide has to be a plus....

No, just no. The Scottish Labour leader ought to be a MSP sitting in Edinburgh, not an MP sitting in London.

Yes, as there's now only one more non-SNP MP in Scotland than there are pandas...

[Talleyrand]

It looks like final results will be 331 Conservative, 232 Labour? Wow.

[jaichind]

Overall LAB gained 10 from CON, while CON gained 8 from LAB.  In Wales it was CON gain 2 from LAB while in England it was CON gain 6 from LAB and LAB gain 10 from CON.  Most of LAB gains from CON were in London, I think 5.  So the best place for CON relative to 2010 was Wales and the best place for LAB relative to 2010 was London.

[adma]

While I'm not much up for number guessing (I'm more into wiggle-room allowance), I'd have to say that I saw a lot of this coming--look, in practice, Miliband was the UK version of Stephane Dion for the Liberals in Canada in '08.  And likewise with Canadian examples in mind, I was anticipating that with *those* kinds of polling figures, the Lib Dems could be headed for a single digit seat total--*not* the 20-30 base others were claiming...

[jaichind]

Wow.  I think the CON+UKIP vote share in GB (not UK though) is slightly over 50%.

[jaichind]

I think I mentioned this before.  But this will the the first time an incumbent ruling party managed to increase BOTH seat and vote share after a full term since the 1950s.  Harold Wilson manged this twice in 1964/1966 and the 2 1974 elections but I do not count either one, especially the 2 1974 elections since anti-incumbency did not have enough time to sink in either case, especially in 1974.  CON in 2010 to 2015 went the entire 5 years and still managed to increase its vote share and seat share.

[jaichind]

Some very early England council election results seem to confirm the same trend.  CON and UKIP gaining  ground and LD losing ground.   LAB flat to slightly losing ground. 

[Skye]

So exit polls were wrong... they underestimated the Tories. lol.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that with SNP abstentions on strictly English only matters then the Tory majority for those votes will be substantial.

[Phony Moderate]

I think I would have felt less depressed, in a weird way, after the 79, 83, 87 and 92 results than I do now.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP sends their regards:



ÖVP-parliamentary club leader Lopatka.

[Famous Mortimer]

2 seats are still out? Which 2?

[Talleyrand]

Only St. Ives is out. It may not actually come in until 4 PM.

[bore]

I don't know much about Ian Murray, but the fact that he held on against the tide has to be a plus....

The seats demographics always made Edinburgh South one of the very last seats to go SNP, so it's not that much of a shock, although Murray still ran a good campaign. It helped him that his opponent was woeful, but on the other hand that didn't help Douglas Alexander.

[ChrisDR68]

I think I would have felt less depressed, in a weird way, after the 79, 83, 87 and 92 results than I do now.

History repeating itself yet again. The polls were wrong and the Shy Tory Voter phenomenon is very much alive and well.

The Tory vote underestimated for the 6th general election in a row.

It feels quite like 1992 again except for what happened in Scotland and the brutal crushing of the Lib Dems.

[Paleobrazilian]

Lib Dems have lost 170 thousand pounds on deposits.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Lib Dems have lost 170 thousand pounds on deposits.

My thoughts on the Lib Dems' lost deposits:

[Phony Moderate]

Won't be seeing any more coalitions for a few decades methinks.

[Lurker]

Is this the most dissapointing/crushing election night in the history of the Labour Party?

Can't be far from it. Of course, 1970 and 1992 are also good candidates (strange how often the pollsters strongly overestimate Labour's chances). 1983 was terrible of course, but so expected that it can't have felt anywhere near this bad.

[Kalimantan]

I think I mentioned this before.  But this will the the first time an incumbent ruling party managed to increase BOTH seat and vote share after a full term since the 1950s.  Harold Wilson manged this twice in 1964/1966 and the 2 1974 elections but I do not count either one, especially the 2 1974 elections since anti-incumbency did not have enough time to sink in either case, especially in 1974.  CON in 2010 to 2015 went the entire 5 years and still managed to increase its vote share and seat share.

Well technically the incumbent was the Con+LD coalition, and as a group they did lose seats (and probbaly vote share but haven't checked)

[Simfan34]

Mori: Con 35, Lab 30, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 8 msg4584308

Not good for Labour, but also not the first poll in which we have seen a weirdly high Green share.

Oh yeah, and "Others" are on 9...

Please don't be wrong!

The parliament in this case would be truly hung though, no? Neither Con-Lib or Lab-SNP could muster a majority. What would happen then?

Ah-hah!

Only St. Ives is out. It may not actually come in until 4 PM.

Come on! I've been waiting to see Cornwall go blue for ages and now it's just the tip...

[Kalimantan]

Is this the most dissapointing/crushing election night in the history of the Labour Party?

Can't be far from it. Of course, 1970 and 1992 are also good candidates (strange how often the pollsters strongly overestimate Labour's chances). 1983 was terrible of course, but so expected that it can't have felt anywhere near this bad.

No, 1992 (in my memory at least). Really this election result was very predictable, we just allowed ourselves to be kidded by the polls that perhaps Miliband and Balls weren't as unpopular as we all knew they really were, and that losing Scotland didn't matter because the SNP are left-wing anyway. All a big house of cards and the cold light of day reveals these beliefs to be the fallacy we secretly knew all along. But a new leader, a miserable Tory government run by the 60 or so far right in their ranks, and a big win in 5 years beckons

[ag]

I think I mentioned this before.  But this will the the first time an incumbent ruling party managed to increase BOTH seat and vote share after a full term since the 1950s.  Harold Wilson manged this twice in 1964/1966 and the 2 1974 elections but I do not count either one, especially the 2 1974 elections since anti-incumbency did not have enough time to sink in either case, especially in 1974.  CON in 2010 to 2015 went the entire 5 years and still managed to increase its vote share and seat share.

Well technically the incumbent was the Con+LD coalition, and as a group they did lose seats (and probbaly vote share but haven't checked)

LD lost over 15 percentage points, while Conservatives gained less than one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this the most dissapointing/crushing election night in the history of the Labour Party?

Well, no. If we're just talking postwar defeats, cases can be made for 1951, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1987 and 1992. The wins in 1950 and in October 1974 was also very disappointing as Labour had reasonable expectations of clear majorities.