UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 174226 times)
Hydera
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« Reply #1125 on: May 08, 2015, 01:10:11 PM »

It seemed like the issue that hurt the Liberal Democrats most was tuition fees, in the sense that that was where they were perceived to have sold out. The raise in tuition fees was passed in December 2010 with the support of a majority of LD MPs. The questions I have:

1. Could the Liberal Democrats have stopped the government from implementing this plan?
2. If the answer to the previous question was no and the Liberal Democrats had withdrawn their support for the government over tuition fees, how would they have done in the following election?


I was up at night looking at the results in constituency after constituency. most libdem voters rather than vote for left wing parties, had a 50-70% shift to UKIP or tories. Most likely it was a much much different reason than tuition fees that caused their voters to shift, otherwise it would of went towards the left wing parties but didn't.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1126 on: May 08, 2015, 01:13:03 PM »

I guess they could have withdrawn from government and continued to give confidence.

The trouble was abolishing tuition fees was pretty much the Lib Dem policy the man on the street knew in the previous decade. It would have been like UKIP voting for a rise in immigration or Labour voting to abolish the NHS.

Belfast South btw, elected the SDLP with 24.5 % of the vote. This is apparently the smallest winning share on record.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1127 on: May 08, 2015, 01:17:02 PM »

At this point Labour, just like most of European Socialist/Social Democratic parties, should simply disband and start over.

Why?  CON were crushed in 1997 2001 and soundly defeated in 2005.  They did not have to disband and start over to come back to power.
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Boris
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« Reply #1128 on: May 08, 2015, 01:17:22 PM »

Lib Dems were already polling like sh**t before they reneged on the tuition fees promise and Clegg posted the apology video, no?
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« Reply #1129 on: May 08, 2015, 01:20:05 PM »

All four major parties saved their deposit in Belfast South, as did the Alliance and the Greens. Even UKIP came within a tenth of one percentage point of saving their deposit!

Lib Dems were already polling like sh**t before they reneged on the tuition fees promise and Clegg posted the apology video, no?

Their numbers were way down, but my impression is that breaking with the government over their signature issue would have helped them rebound.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1130 on: May 08, 2015, 01:45:40 PM »

Fun Fact: the BNP have scored the second worst result in their history, and in the popular vote trail behind all the Northern Irish lot, the continuing Liberal Party, TuSC, the Cannabis party, Mebyon Kernow, Yorkshire First, Monster Ravings Loonies, both the Christian parties and People Before Profit. Their support to the nearest two significant figures is 0.0%.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1131 on: May 08, 2015, 01:48:41 PM »

It's totally a coincidence that the BNP's worst result coincides with UKIP's best though. Because UKIP is definitely not at all racist.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1132 on: May 08, 2015, 01:50:01 PM »

When the UKIP candidates do racist things it's not their fault, merely part of the BBC liblabcon conspiracy.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #1133 on: May 08, 2015, 01:50:08 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2015, 01:56:29 PM by PR »

On the subject of the Lib Dems: what exactly is (or was Tongue) their social and regional base of support? Do they even have one, or is part of the issue the fact that they rely a lot on protest votes scattered throughout different constituencies?

(apologies if this question has been answered before, or has an obvious answer).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1134 on: May 08, 2015, 01:50:31 PM »

I would have thought that the addition of the SNP factor/total wipeout in Scotland, combined with a thoroughly unexpected Conservative majority,  might have made this one even worse - even though there, of course, have been other  surprising defeats to the Tories as well.

Everyone had mentally adjusted to 'Scottish Labour is going to lose everything' though.

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The scale of the defeats was not expected and was (particularly in 1987) really galling.
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Torie
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« Reply #1135 on: May 08, 2015, 01:52:56 PM »

On the subject of the Lib Dems: what exactly is (or was Tongue) their social base of support?

(apologies if this question has been answered before).

Before the late unpleasantness, the same social base as the bulk of the posters who post on this forum.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1136 on: May 08, 2015, 01:53:22 PM »

Is this the first time there have been no Liberal or Lib Dem seats in the South-West of England since the 1950s?

Yes
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Torie
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« Reply #1137 on: May 08, 2015, 01:56:11 PM »

Is this the first time there have been no Liberal or Lib Dem seats in the South-West of England since the 1950s?

Yes

You think the LD's might be permanently finished there (well nothing is perhaps indubitably "permanent," but you know what I mean)?
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #1138 on: May 08, 2015, 02:01:39 PM »

Pleasantly surprised by the results of this election, other than UKIP being a thing and getting so many votes. Congrats to Cameron and all Conservative supporters Smiley
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #1139 on: May 08, 2015, 02:17:12 PM »

It's totally a coincidence that the BNP's worst result coincides with UKIP's best though. Because UKIP is definitely not at all racist.
Or, or, maybe, just maybe it has to do with the BNP falling apart due to Nick Griffith using it as a personal bank account?

Anywho, democracy worked and the voters kinda/sorta rejected UKIP. Farage shouldn't be bitching about FPTP. He failed. It is time for new blood, and I am hoping someone like Daniel Hannan steps up to the plate.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1140 on: May 08, 2015, 02:18:42 PM »

Is this the first time there have been no Liberal or Lib Dem seats in the South-West of England since the 1950s?

Yes

You think the LD's might be permanently finished there (well nothing is perhaps indubitably "permanent," but you know what I mean)?

They might win a couple of seats back at the next election as the Liberal tradition is battered but still exists there. Being very pro-EU does them no favours though in this part of the country.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #1141 on: May 08, 2015, 03:15:22 PM »

Paddy Ashdown better start munching on a hat on camera soon, it's my only opportunity for enjoyment this election.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1142 on: May 08, 2015, 03:25:23 PM »

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Bacon King
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« Reply #1143 on: May 08, 2015, 03:45:22 PM »

The Guardian: 9 Reasons to be cheerful about the election in spite of everything
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1144 on: May 08, 2015, 03:46:47 PM »

I don't know much about Ian Murray, but the fact that he held on against the tide has to be a plus....

It's no coincidence that the three seats that withstood the wave were some of the strongest 'No' areas last year.
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bore
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« Reply #1145 on: May 08, 2015, 03:48:48 PM »

If England was so satisfied with the current government, then why were the Lib Dems punished so harshly? Was it something like:

Voted Lib Dem in 2010, satisfied with current government -> Conservative
Voted Lib Dem in 2010, dissatisfied with current government -> Labour
Voted Lib Dem in 2010, mostly as an antiestablishment/protest vote -> UKIP

Also, I wonder how much there was polling error, and how much was just a last minute breaking of the undecideds to the Conservatives due to a combination of a) Miliband's personal unpopularity finally catching up to him and b) Fear of SNP influence, and c) UKIP tactical voting.

I feel it is b) and c).  Of course b) leads to c).

I notice that there are a lot of Labour held seats in Northern England, particularly in general the more rural ones, where the Tory plus UKIP vote was above 50%, and even more such seats if you put say half the LD vote in the center right column. Several more are very close to that. So that is something that Labour might worry about, if they don't want to become like the US Democrats, and be largely leashed to more urban seats. This might be particularly worrisome for them, if as may well be the case, Scotland, one way or the other, is gone for them forever more.

You can't just assume that UKIP voters prefer the conservatives to labour, any more than you could (as people did) assume that lib dem voters last time would prefer labour to the conservatives. In some areas and seats that's true, but in others its not.

It's not as simple as adding all the "right wing parties" together and comparing with the sum of all the "left wing parties" to find who should win a given seat. To give just reason why, many votes for third parties are protest votes designed to send labour and the tories a message, not an ideological statement.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1146 on: May 08, 2015, 03:53:28 PM »

Yes, there are no blocs (even unofficially) in British elections.
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Torie
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« Reply #1147 on: May 08, 2015, 03:57:55 PM »

If England was so satisfied with the current government, then why were the Lib Dems punished so harshly? Was it something like:

Voted Lib Dem in 2010, satisfied with current government -> Conservative
Voted Lib Dem in 2010, dissatisfied with current government -> Labour
Voted Lib Dem in 2010, mostly as an antiestablishment/protest vote -> UKIP

Also, I wonder how much there was polling error, and how much was just a last minute breaking of the undecideds to the Conservatives due to a combination of a) Miliband's personal unpopularity finally catching up to him and b) Fear of SNP influence, and c) UKIP tactical voting.

I feel it is b) and c).  Of course b) leads to c).

I notice that there are a lot of Labour held seats in Northern England, particularly in general the more rural ones, where the Tory plus UKIP vote was above 50%, and even more such seats if you put say half the LD vote in the center right column. Several more are very close to that. So that is something that Labour might worry about, if they don't want to become like the US Democrats, and be largely leashed to more urban seats. This might be particularly worrisome for them, if as may well be the case, Scotland, one way or the other, is gone for them forever more.

You can't just assume that UKIP voters prefer the conservatives to labour, any more than you could (as people did) assume that lib dem voters last time would prefer labour to the conservatives. In some areas and seats that's true, but in others its not.

It's not as simple as adding all the "right wing parties" together and comparing with the sum of all the "left wing parties" to find who should win a given seat. To give just reason why, many votes for third parties are protest votes designed to send labour and the tories a message, not an ideological statement.

Fair enough, but with respect to the UKIP voters up there who were formerly Labour voters, does that not indicate some estrangement with the party, an estrangement that will not be easy to assuage?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1148 on: May 08, 2015, 04:33:15 PM »

Is this the first time there have been no Liberal or Lib Dem seats in the South-West of England since the 1950s?

Yes

More exactly, they have always had some presence in the west or south-west since the 1958 Torrington by-election.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #1149 on: May 08, 2015, 04:57:04 PM »

Has anybody tallied up second place finishes yet?

I'm particularly wondering how many seats UKIP came in second in but I wonder for all the parties.
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