UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Diouf]

If UKIP manages not to implode over the leadership election and ends up with a decent leader, then they could have some good years ahead in terms of adding to their seat total. There could again be defections from the Eurosceptic right wing of the Conservative party and there will be an EU-referendum where they will be the only significant party which will campaign in unison for leaving the EU. Perhaps they could get a (smaller version) of the SNP effect by uniting many of the voters at one side of the referendum question. It might not last all the way to the next general election due to the lack of focus on EU in general elections and because it will likely be a few years after, but in many months before and after the referendum, they could very well pick up a number of seats in by-elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Second places are basically entirely irrelevant.

[136or142]

Does anybody have the vote share for London?

[jaichind]

Does anybody have the vote share for London?

LAB           45      43.7%
CON          27      34.9%
LD              1         7.8%
UKIP           0         8.1%
Green         0         4.9%

[136or142]

Does anybody have the vote share for London?

LAB           45      43.7%
CON          27      34.9%
LD              1         7.8%
UKIP           0         8.1%
Green         0         4.9%

Thanks!

Where did you find that from?

Lib Dem got the same vote share (less 0.1%) in London as their national result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The result in Hereford (LibDem MP 1997-2010 and a longtime target and local government base beforehand) is quite something... Con 52.6, UKIP 16.8, Labour 12.8, LDem 10.6, Green 7.2

That's minus 30.5 for the LibDems.

[homelycooking]

I'm sure I'm missing a few seats but I can't quite figure what they are. England and Wales only here.

Lab to Con (9)	Con to Lab (10)	LD to Con (27)	LD to Lab (12)
Plymouth Moorview	Hove	St Ives	Bristol West
Southampton Itchen	Brentford and Isleworth	Cornwall North	Norwich South
Gower	Enfield North	St Austell and Newquay	Cambridge
Vale of Clwyd	Ealing Central and Acton	Devon North	Birmingham Yardley
Telford	Ilford North	Torbay	Manchester Withington
Morley and Outwood	City of Chester	Taunton Deane	Burnley
Bolton West	Wirral West	Yeovil	Cardiff Central
Derby North	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Dorset Mid and Poole North	Redcar
Corby (by-election)	Wolverhampton SW	Eastleigh	Bermondsey and Old Southwark
	Dewsbury	Somerton and Frome	Brent Central
		Wells	Hornsey and Wood Green
		Bath	Bradford East
		Chippenham
		Thornbury and Yate
		Cheltenham
		Lewes
UKIP to Con (1)	Respect to Lab (1)	Eastbourne
Rochester and Strood (by-election)	Bradford West (by-election)	Portsmouth South
		Colchester
		Solihull
		Cheadle
		Hazel Grove
		Brecon and Radnorshire
		Berwick-upon-Tweed
		Twickenham
		Sutton and Cheam
		Kingston and Surbiton

[kcguy]

On the subject of the Lib Dems: what exactly is (or was ) their social and regional base of support? Do they even have one, or is part of the issue the fact that they rely a lot on protest votes scattered throughout different constituencies?

(apologies if this question has been answered before, or has an obvious answer).

This is just my impression, but it seems like Lib Dem base demographics is just several distinct groups layered on top of one another.

1.  People in regions distant from London, which were never really a part of the English Establishment.  In particular, the Scottish Highlands, rural Wales, and the southwestern peninsula.  These are not people who live in the country and commute to work for a large employer in town; these are people who live in the country and make their living in fishing or farming.

2.  People who live in regions where the Labour party acquired the image, especially in the 1970's and 1980's, of the "loony Left".  The Liberal Democrats would capture the local government, run it competently, and build upon that.  Here, their support came from not just the center and center-left, but also from right-wingers who would vote for anyone capable of getting Labour out of office.  Geographically, this would be random scattered seats in inner-city London, Liverpool, Manchester, etc.

3.  People who reacted negatively to the rise of the right wing in the Conservative Party in the 1990's, particularly reacting to stridently anti-European right-wing elements.  These people would have regarded themselves as too middle class to vote Labour.  Mirroring #2, Lib Dem support in these constituencies would be padded by people who would otherwise have voted Labour.  Geographically, the poster children for this demographic would have been the 5 well-heeled seats in outer southwestern London taken from the Tories in 1997.

4.  People on the left of the Labour Party who opposed Tony Blair and the Iraq War.  Cambridge and the two Oxford seats are the obvious examples, although the Lib Dems had already held the more rural of the two Oxford seats even before the war.

[jaichind]

Does anybody have the vote share for London?

LAB           45      43.7%
CON          27      34.9%
LD              1         7.8%
UKIP           0         8.1%
Green         0         4.9%

Thanks!

Where did you find that from?

Lib Dem got the same vote share (less 0.1%) in London as their national result.

I found this site which I found to be very good.  It allows to review results by subregions.

http://principalfish.co.uk/election2015/live/

[kcguy]

I'm sure I'm missing a few seats but I can't quite figure what they are. England and Wales only here.

Lab to Con (9)

Con to Lab (10)

LD to Con (27)

LD to Lab (12)

Sky News had a list, so I compared it to yours.

It looks like the only seat you missed was Clacton, which is technically a UKIP gain compared to 2010, even if it was won by the same candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good list. Conventionally by-election recaptures are not classed as gains, fwiw.

Anyway, some maps tomorrow I guess...

[homelycooking]

Vertigine della lista

GREEN TOP 10 SEATS

Candidate	Constituency	Percent
Caroline Lucas	Brighton Pavilion	41.8%
Darren Hall	Bristol West	26.8%
Jillian Creasy	Sheffield Central	15.8%
Heather Finlay	Hackney North and Stoke Newington	14.6%
Lesley Grahame	Norwich South	13.9%
Alan Francis	Buckingham	13.8%
Vix Lowthion	Isle of Wight	13.5%
Natalie Bennett	Holborn and St Pancras	12.8%
John Coughlin	Lewisham Deptford	12.5%
Martin Dobson	Liverpool Riverside	12.1%

UKIP TOP 10 SEATS

Candidate	Constituency	Percent
Douglas Carswell	Clacton	44.4%
Robin Hunter-Clarke	Boston and Skegness	33.8%
Nigel Farage	Thanet South	32.4%
John Bickley	Heywood and Middleton	32.2%
Tim Aker	Thurrock	31.7%
Jamie Huntman	Castle Point	31.2%
Mark Reckless	Rochester and Strood	30.5%
Jane Collins	Rotherham	30.2%
Peter Harris	Dagenham and Rainham	29.9%
Allen Cowles	Rother Valley	28.1%

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

On the subject of the Lib Dems: what exactly is (or was ) their social and regional base of support? Do they even have one, or is part of the issue the fact that they rely a lot on protest votes scattered throughout different constituencies?

(apologies if this question has been answered before, or has an obvious answer).

This is just my impression, but it seems like Lib Dem base demographics is just several distinct groups layered on top of one another.

1.  People in regions distant from London, which were never really a part of the English Establishment.  In particular, the Scottish Highlands, rural Wales, and the southwestern peninsula.  These are not people who live in the country and commute to work for a large employer in town; these are people who live in the country and make their living in fishing or farming.

2.  People who live in regions where the Labour party acquired the image, especially in the 1970's and 1980's, of the "loony Left".  The Liberal Democrats would capture the local government, run it competently, and build upon that.  Here, their support came from not just the center and center-left, but also from right-wingers who would vote for anyone capable of getting Labour out of office.  Geographically, this would be random scattered seats in inner-city London, Liverpool, Manchester, etc.

3.  People who reacted negatively to the rise of the right wing in the Conservative Party in the 1990's, particularly reacting to stridently anti-European right-wing elements.  These people would have regarded themselves as too middle class to vote Labour.  Mirroring #2, Lib Dem support in these constituencies would be padded by people who would otherwise have voted Labour.  Geographically, the poster children for this demographic would have been the 5 well-heeled seats in outer southwestern London taken from the Tories in 1997.

4.  People on the left of the Labour Party who opposed Tony Blair and the Iraq War.  Cambridge and the two Oxford seats are the obvious examples, although the Lib Dems had already held the more rural of the two Oxford seats even before the war.

So how did these groups vote in 2015?

I'm guessing the first group voted SNP (in Scotland) and Conservative elsewhere, then groups 2 and 3 went Conservative, and then the fourth group went to Labour and maybe the Greens? Is that about right?

[adma]

Second places are basically entirely irrelevant.

Not to fun-loving psephologists ;-)

[Famous Mortimer]

I tried to do it myself but I lost count by the time I had finished doing the Cs alphabetically. Will try to convince a nerdier friend to help me. This is a two person job.

[homelycooking]

Quick-and-dirty constituency map (colored according to margin of victory), 'cause what else was I going to do with my Friday night?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

What's the deal with the random place in Scotland that voted Conservative?

[Ebsy]

What's the deal with the random place in Scotland that voted Conservative?

The Tories have always done better in the seats closer to the border.

[ag]

Second places are basically entirely irrelevant.

Not to fun-loving psephologists ;-)

In Wales, I believe, the second places went

15 Con
10 Lab
6 PC
6 UKIP
3 LD

[136or142]

This election result was similar to 1987 in at least 3 ways:
1.Although the share of the vote for both Labour and Conservative was lower in 2015 than in 1987, in both elections the gap between the 2 parties was around 7%.

2.Although the final seat result in this election was 331-232 while in 1987 it was 336-271, if you gave Labour the 40 seats back from the largely even more left wing SNP this election would be 331-272.

3.In both 1987 and 2015 the polls were pretty much tied with most analyists predicting that Labour would have the slightly better possibility of forming a government.

[rob in cal]

What areas would look the most different with the upcoming Boundary changes that the Conservatives are talking about doing.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

thanks for the lists and the map homely!

I wonder, is there a reason UKIP tends to have its best showings on the East Coast?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I wonder, is there a reason UKIP tends to have its best showings on the East Coast?

I've been going with the theory that they see how bad Europe really is right from their house, and I'm running with that until a UK poster tells us about immigration patterns (or perhaps just historical opposition to Europe) in those constituencies.

[Blair]

I wonder, is there a reason UKIP tends to have its best showings on the East Coast?

I've been going with the theory that they see how bad Europe really is right from their house, and I'm running with that until a UK poster tells us about immigration patterns (or perhaps just historical opposition to Europe) in those constituencies.

They tend to be more working class, deprived areas that haven't had any love from the tories or labour. They also have very very low levels of immigration, which means they're scared they're going to get swamped

[YL]

The result in Hereford (LibDem MP 1997-2010 and a longtime target and local government base beforehand) is quite something... Con 52.6, UKIP 16.8, Labour 12.8, LDem 10.6, Green 7.2

That's minus 30.5 for the LibDems.

Sheffield Central:

Lab 55.0 (+13.7)
Green 15.8 (+12.1)
Con 11.1 (+1.0)
LD 9.7 (-31.2)
UKIP 7.5 (+5.9)

The Lib Dems were only 165 votes behind Labour in 2010.