UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 174204 times)
Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1250 on: May 10, 2015, 09:03:26 AM »

Greens in Wales...

Like UKIP, very consistent level of support - only saving their deposit in Swansea West, Ceredigion, and Cardiff Central. All seats with universities.

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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1251 on: May 10, 2015, 10:13:31 AM »

Plaid

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CrabCake
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« Reply #1252 on: May 10, 2015, 10:57:46 AM »

Breaking news: Conservative MP grateful for dick inside box.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1253 on: May 10, 2015, 11:04:47 AM »



The North West.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1254 on: May 10, 2015, 11:23:52 AM »

LibDems polled just 6% in Colne Valley. For historical reasons that's just... Jesus.
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« Reply #1255 on: May 10, 2015, 11:32:07 AM »

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_West_Derby_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

This might be their biggest epic fail. I'm sure someone will see what I'm referring to...
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Hnv1
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« Reply #1256 on: May 10, 2015, 11:33:00 AM »

Labour took Liverpool Walton with 81.3%! that's probably the highest % in this election, couldn't find a higher one in recent campaigns. is this a record?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1257 on: May 10, 2015, 11:36:14 AM »



Yorkshire and The Humber.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1258 on: May 10, 2015, 11:39:12 AM »

Labour took Liverpool Walton with 81.3%! that's probably the highest % in this election, couldn't find a higher one in recent campaigns. is this a record?

Highest figure on record for Labour is IIRC 91% in West Ham Silvertown in 1945.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1259 on: May 10, 2015, 11:55:51 AM »

Oxford, Reading, Slough, Brighton and Southampton - only really. Not much fertile ground for Labour in the South East.

Hopefully the Greens can continue to grow in the region though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1260 on: May 10, 2015, 11:56:47 AM »



The North East.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1261 on: May 10, 2015, 12:37:10 PM »

Are there any exit polls with subs such as ethnicity, religion etc?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1262 on: May 10, 2015, 12:39:23 PM »

Are there any exit polls with subs such as ethnicity, religion etc?
The BBC/ITN/Sky Exit Poll data is never realised, sadly.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1263 on: May 10, 2015, 12:43:27 PM »

Are there any exit polls with subs such as ethnicity, religion etc?
The BBC/ITN/Sky Exit Poll data is never realised, sadly.

It is conducted by Mori and NOP, who usually do release it sometime after the election. Here is 2005's for instance: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2252/How-Britain-Voted-in-2005.aspx?view=wide
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1264 on: May 10, 2015, 12:57:59 PM »


Liberal Democrat behind the Liberal candidate?
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« Reply #1265 on: May 10, 2015, 01:03:19 PM »

Yep
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Peter
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« Reply #1266 on: May 10, 2015, 01:09:21 PM »

Hardly surprising given the Liberal survival there for 25 years. The biggest epic fails are places like the Isle of Wight where they have gone from holding the seat less than 20 years ago, to barely holding their deposit.

I'm not aware of any recent wins from general elections where they have actually lost their deposit. Anybody?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1267 on: May 10, 2015, 01:23:17 PM »

Are there any exit polls with subs such as ethnicity, religion etc?

Not anymore, but even if there still was why would you trust it?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1268 on: May 10, 2015, 01:24:47 PM »



I'll probably do my own UK-wide outline map at some point, but for now, why not use the old classic?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1269 on: May 10, 2015, 01:34:38 PM »

Are there any exit polls with subs such as ethnicity, religion etc?
The BBC/ITN/Sky Exit Poll data is never realised, sadly.

It is conducted by Mori and NOP, who usually do release it sometime after the election. Here is 2005's for instance: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2252/How-Britain-Voted-in-2005.aspx?view=wide
Maybe they do - eventually. I found 2010 - https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2613/How-Britain-Voted-in-2010.aspx?view=wide
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1270 on: May 10, 2015, 01:38:02 PM »

I'm not aware of any recent wins from general elections where they have actually lost their deposit. Anybody?

Not sure. Let's check a few possible candidates.

Liverpool Wavertree is the partial successor to Liverpool Mossley Hill - 6.0% there. Equally they weren't far off in Colne Valley - 6.0% again.

Found one! Leeds West (1983-87) - 3.9%

And another! Leicester South (2004b-05) - 4.6%

And another! Cambridgeshire North East (1973-87) - 4.5%

And an arguable one - Erith & Thamesmead - 2.3%. Thamesmead was part of Woolwich which, as you know, was an SDP seat in the 1980s. Which leads me to note that deposits were also lost in both Plymouth seats.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1271 on: May 10, 2015, 01:38:39 PM »


I believe those are just adjusted poll aggregate data.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1272 on: May 10, 2015, 01:51:39 PM »

Which of the various defeated 'big names' (Balls, McVey, the two Alexanders, Murphy, Laws, Kennedy etc) will attempt a comeback I wonder?
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YL
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« Reply #1273 on: May 10, 2015, 01:53:43 PM »

Any idea why Labour had such an epic fail in Hendon, especially compared to the rest of north London?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1274 on: May 10, 2015, 02:15:07 PM »

Any idea why Labour had such an epic fail in Hendon, especially compared to the rest of north London?

I suspect part of the issue was that Dismore overperformed in 2010 (that he nearly held on was a real surprise) and that he did so based on his personal appeal. Loss of incumbency won't have helped there. Its possible that he lost some Orthodox Jewish support due to a dislike of Miliband's foreign policy views, but that wouldn't be enough votes to account for the result (though I'm sure that will be cited as the reason), at least not without some other factor.

But I note that the Tories also had decent results in the Harrow seats. Are the Tories making further inroads with the growing Hindu community - even if only the middle class ones - in N.W. London perhaps?
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