UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 174229 times)
ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1275 on: May 10, 2015, 03:25:23 PM »


Mr Heineken himself won 13 seats for Labour in 1997 in the south east and held them all in 2001. In 2005 the party lost just one of them (Gravesham).

http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/1303/swing-constituencies-south-east.thtml
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1276 on: May 10, 2015, 03:34:53 PM »

Does anyone think there is enough residual Liberal Democrat strength in the West Country for them to mount a comeback there in the coming years?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1277 on: May 10, 2015, 04:04:35 PM »

Does anyone think there is enough residual Liberal Democrat strength in the West Country for them to mount a comeback there in the coming years?
Yes - they came second in almost all seats in the West Country. However, I don't think the 2020 election will be the time for the Lib Dem re-breakthrough in the South West. Maybe 2025 (assuming the fixed-term parliament act stays in place).
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1278 on: May 10, 2015, 04:25:18 PM »

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

I find the responses to questions about Scotland's independence fascinating.  It seems that the SNP's conquest in Scotland has convinced more non-Scots to be okay with Scottish independence.  Or this might have something more to do with the fact that more voters seem to think getting rid of Scotland would make England and Wales better off.
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Torie
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« Reply #1279 on: May 10, 2015, 05:13:43 PM »

Here is the kind of interactive map toy of the UK election that I was looking for, where you can adjust the map for various swings, etc. The LD collapse does alas make the map utility less useful than it might be alas, because sometimes it is not so much the swing between Labour and the Tories, as it is how the LD vote was divided up between the UKIP, the Tories, and Labour.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1280 on: May 10, 2015, 05:23:24 PM »

Tories in Wales

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adma
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« Reply #1281 on: May 10, 2015, 05:51:59 PM »

I'm not aware of any recent wins from general elections where they have actually lost their deposit. Anybody?

Not sure. Let's check a few possible candidates.

Liverpool Wavertree is the partial successor to Liverpool Mossley Hill - 6.0% there. Equally they weren't far off in Colne Valley - 6.0% again.

Found one! Leeds West (1983-87) - 3.9%

And another! Leicester South (2004b-05) - 4.6%

And another! Cambridgeshire North East (1973-87) - 4.5%

And an arguable one - Erith & Thamesmead - 2.3%. Thamesmead was part of Woolwich which, as you know, was an SDP seat in the 1980s. Which leads me to note that deposits were also lost in both Plymouth seats.

If I may cheat, there's also the matter of Mike Hancock's 1.7% in Portsmouth South ;-)
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change08
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« Reply #1282 on: May 10, 2015, 05:59:33 PM »

Wavertree was a key target for the Libs in 2010. Everyone thought they'd take it when Luciana Berger was selected.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1283 on: May 10, 2015, 06:02:22 PM »

If I may cheat, there's also the matter of Mike Hancock's 1.7% in Portsmouth South ;-)

Ah, but he was standing for United Russia.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1284 on: May 10, 2015, 06:52:28 PM »

Lib Dems in Wales. To sum up: lol

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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #1285 on: May 10, 2015, 08:57:16 PM »

Do any of you guys have a map of the Norn Iron seats? They sure seemed to be interesting this time around.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #1286 on: May 11, 2015, 12:11:12 AM »

So what exactly is the difference between the DUP and the UUP?
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #1287 on: May 11, 2015, 01:30:20 AM »

So what exactly is the difference between the DUP and the UUP?

UUP is more liberal-conservative, officially secular and largely aligned with the Tories on policy. The mainstream unionist party for most of NI modern history and the governing party from 1921-1972. Much more moderate than the DUP.

DUP is much, much more socially conservative and I think more populist on economics. They were founded by evangelical Presbyterian minister Ian Paisley in the 1970's as an alternative to UUP and have kept their Christian undertones and links to Protestant churches and Ulster loyalist groups. In the last 15 years they have overtaken the UUP as the main unionist party and have moderated a bit, although they are still pretty batsh*t.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1288 on: May 11, 2015, 01:48:33 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2015, 01:50:43 AM by Bacon King »

In more practical terms there's a class divide between the two parties, with UUP voters generally being the more well-off members of the Protestant community. The UUP is effectively the North Irish branch of the Conservative Party (not to be confused with the actual North Irish branch of the Conservative Party, which usually polls about 2% where they bother running candidates) but some portions of the UUP also have more of a leftist tendency than you really see anywhere in the Tories. Lady Hermon for example was on the left of the party and first sat as an independent when the Ulster Unionists initiated their ill-fated merger with the Conservative Party, back in 2010.

The DUP is interested in three things: 1) themselves, 2) the NI Protestant community in general, and 3) bringing home the bacon from Westminster for those first two things. They're less of a political party and more of a personification of that one SimCity advisor:



I hope this helps! Actual Brits, feel free to correct my misconceptions
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Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
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« Reply #1289 on: May 11, 2015, 02:56:22 AM »

Any idea why Labour had such an epic fail in Hendon, especially compared to the rest of north London?

I suspect part of the issue was that Dismore overperformed in 2010 (that he nearly held on was a real surprise) and that he did so based on his personal appeal. Loss of incumbency won't have helped there. Its possible that he lost some Orthodox Jewish support due to a dislike of Miliband's foreign policy views, but that wouldn't be enough votes to account for the result (though I'm sure that will be cited as the reason), at least not without some other factor.

But I note that the Tories also had decent results in the Harrow seats. Are the Tories making further inroads with the growing Hindu community - even if only the middle class ones - in N.W. London perhaps?

Dismore did hugely outperform in the London Assembly elections in 2012 - but the Tory candidate he was up against was Brian "Taxi" Coleman who had a strongly negative personal vote.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1290 on: May 11, 2015, 04:46:58 AM »

So what exactly is the difference between the DUP and the UUP?

UUP is more liberal-conservative, officially secular and largely aligned with the Tories on policy. The mainstream unionist party for most of NI modern history and the governing party from 1921-1972. Much more moderate than the DUP.

That depends on the particular UUPer. It would be true of Kinahan in South Antrim, but not of Elliott in Fermanagh-South Tyrone.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1291 on: May 11, 2015, 05:15:42 AM »

Lots of ignorant folk have suggested in recent days that the DUP is a 'natural ally' of the Tories. Lol.
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Vega
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« Reply #1292 on: May 11, 2015, 06:27:26 AM »

I'll never forget how transparent the dude on BBC election night was; "we'll go to the highest bidder".

I guess there is something to be said for honesty.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1293 on: May 11, 2015, 06:41:55 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2015, 06:47:36 AM by Phony Moderate »

Normal service, it is fair to say, has been resumed in many, many big city seats, with the Labour vote rising back to at least pre-Iraq levels. Only major difference being that UKIP are in the thousands rather than the hundreds/not standing at all.

Oh, and sorry to bring up Liverpool Walton again, but it really should be noted that the Labour vote there was higher than in 1997...maybe in the other Liverpool seats too, but I can't be bothered at the moment. Does the release of those certain 30-year rule documents from a few years ago form part, or most, of the explanation?
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adma
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« Reply #1294 on: May 11, 2015, 07:02:28 AM »

Hardly surprising given the Liberal survival there for 25 years.

Indeed, if you notice here, Steve Radford's been doing well as an old-school Liberal for some time now--better than LD in both 1997 and 2001, nearly even in 2005, etc...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_West_Derby_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
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YL
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« Reply #1295 on: May 11, 2015, 07:11:47 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2015, 07:55:10 AM by YL »

Normal service, it is fair to say, has been resumed in many, many big city seats, with the Labour vote rising back to at least pre-Iraq levels. Only major difference being that UKIP are in the thousands rather than the hundreds/not standing at all.

Oh, and sorry to bring up Liverpool Walton again, but it really should be noted that the Labour vote there was higher than in 1997...maybe in the other Liverpool seats too, but I can't be bothered at the moment.

The 2010 boundary changes mean a simple comparison of the seats with the same names may be wrong, but it appears that it's yes for Wavertree and West Derby and no for Riverside, and also yes for nearby Sefton Central compared with 1997 Crosby.  With the same boundaries caveat, several London seats appear to have done the same: Walthamstow, Bethnal Green & Bow, Hackney South & Shoreditch, Edmonton, Brent North, Ilford South.  And, of course, Sheffield Hallam (and probably some more where the Lib Dems squeezed the Labour vote in 1997).  Oh, and Bradford West.

Edit: some more (boundary changes caveat again): Brum Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne can take some consolation after the fiasco of his joke), Leicester South, Manchester Gorton, Blackburn.  And finally one which actually helped in the context of this election, Wirral West.
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Јas
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« Reply #1296 on: May 11, 2015, 07:16:58 AM »

Labour took Liverpool Walton with 81.3%! that's probably the highest % in this election, couldn't find a higher one in recent campaigns. is this a record?


North Down, 1959, UUP, 98%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Down_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1950s
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Hnv1
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« Reply #1297 on: May 11, 2015, 09:19:40 AM »

Labour took Liverpool Walton with 81.3%! that's probably the highest % in this election, couldn't find a higher one in recent campaigns. is this a record?


North Down, 1959, UUP, 98%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Down_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1950s

I hardly consider NI\Ireland elections to be fitting for the title. You got a figure for mainland Britain?
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #1298 on: May 11, 2015, 10:31:13 AM »

Labour took Liverpool Walton with 81.3%! that's probably the highest % in this election, couldn't find a higher one in recent campaigns. is this a record?


North Down, 1959, UUP, 98%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Down_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1950s

I hardly consider NI\Ireland elections to be fitting for the title. You got a figure for mainland Britain?


Plaistow, 1918, Labour, 94.9%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaistow_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

or if by-elections count:
Middleton and Prestwich by-election, 1940, Conservative, 98.7%
(Running just against the British Union of Fascists, during WW2)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middleton_and_Prestwich_by-election,_1940


That wiki entry did point me to:
East Kerry, 1885, Irish Parliamentary Party, 99%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Kerry_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#1885

...which apparently is the record for a Westminster election.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1299 on: May 11, 2015, 10:40:10 AM »

That wiki entry did point me to:
East Kerry, 1885, Irish Parliamentary Party, 99%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Kerry_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#1885

...which apparently is the record for a Westminster election.

And in which the Conservatives got only four votes fewer than in West Belfast 130 years later...
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