UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[afleitch]

However, if accurate it fits rather poorly with quite a lot of pundits' analysis of the election result.

Indeed. I will note that this point that it happens to fit the general pattern of results much better than said pundit-driven analysis...

Because pundits relied on the polls and the polls were sh!te.

It was clear as mud over the past year that the number of CON>LAB switchers was negligible and in a system that still remains a two way contest then that indicates little change at that level. The polls showed x number of LIB>LAB switchers which people then assumed would be a cross the country movement, paying no attention to where the Lib Dem voters were, what seats they found themselves in and why they had been voting Lib Dem in the first place for however many elections.

The ABC1 numbers speak volumes.

I'd like to see some Election Study stuff for Scotland, especially as the polls there also overestimated Labour

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The polls also overestimated turnout.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Ipsos-MORI's big demographic survey results are out:



All of the usual caveats apply, of course, and with that in mind I will point out that the figures are not as theoretically accurate as the sort of demographic exit poll data that most of the non-British posters here will be used to, but it's the best you're going to get. So please read with caution: in particular be really careful with the class stuff, because (amongst other things) the model used is kind of dreck.

Its the olds wot won it?

[Phony Moderate]

Worth noting that the Labour 'ABC1' vote is little different from that of 1997.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would have to caution against reading much into apparent* factoids such as that; amongst other things - and there are a lot of of things - the labour market has changed significantly since the 1990s. 1997 might actually have been the last General Election when the old ABC system could be used without at least a mild degree of absurdity.

_{*Whoever told you that one is misremembering anyway. For what (very little) it's worth, the BBC/NOP figures for 1997 were AB 31 and C1 47.}

[Torie]

It's interesting that one of the biggest spikes to the Tories were BME's.

[Clyde1998]

The polls also overestimated turnout.

I think they're always going to - ask the people who are more likely answer the polls are the ones interested in politics.

[Phony Moderate]

Having just watched a snippet of the 2nd Salmond-Darling debate (nothing better to do at this hour) I spotted what may have been key to ensuring the SNP's dominance of Scottish politics for a long time to come. Salmond pointed at Darling and uttered "In bed with the Tory Party! In bed with the Tory Party!" That had to have resonated.

[ChrisDR68]

Having just watched a snippet of the 2nd Salmond-Darling debate (nothing better to do at this hour) I spotted what may have been key to ensuring the SNP's dominance of Scottish politics for a long time to come. Salmond pointed at Darling and uttered "In bed with the Tory Party! In bed with the Tory Party!" That had to have resonated.

Unless the Scots vote for independence within the next 10 years I think the present spike in support for the SNP will turn out to be an electoral blind alley.

After Labour lose again in 2020 (which seems likely right now) the desire to get the Conservatives out will reassert itself north of the border and in all likelihood Labour will make a strong comeback in time for the 2025 general election.

Ultimately all voting SNP does is make life easier for the Tories as it means fewer Labour MP's in the House of Commons. Eventually that will draw people back to voting Labour but I think it will take most of the next two parliaments for that to happen.

[Phony Moderate]

Almost half the country doesn't even want to be in the UK, though.

[ChrisDR68]

Almost half the country doesn't even want to be in the UK, though.

True but as someone said on the Daily Politics recently unless they are sure they will win a second independence referendum the SNP won't risk losing again.

Losing two referendums in a short space of time will almost certainly put an independent Scotland to bed as an issue for decades.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Maybe they should go down the BQ route and make up an independence question so convoluted nobody could possibly understand it.

[YL]

The polls also overestimated turnout.

I think they're always going to - ask the people who are more likely answer the polls are the ones interested in politics.

That, and people who are in fact unlikely to vote saying that they probably will.

However, I suspect that the pollsters' over-estimation of turnout may, in fact, have been a big part of why they got the election as a whole wrong.  If that's the case, it's something they need to work on.

[Clyde1998]

Maybe they should go down the BQ route and make up an independence question so convoluted nobody could possibly understand it.

"The Scottish Government has proposed that Scotland should seek a new arrangement from the United Kingdom Government which would give Scotland exclusive and independent power to enforce its own laws, generate tax revenue, control welfare, hold international relations, give citizenship and control its own defence program - in other words, Scottish Independence from the United Kingdom - while maintaining an economic relationship with the United Kingdom, using the Pound Sterling in a currency union and staying part of the Common Travel Area, retain the British monarchy as the head of state, as well as retaining Scotland’s European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation memberships; should the Scottish Government pursue a new arrangement for Scotland from the United Kingdom Government on these terms?"

That's that Sorted.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

However, I suspect that the pollsters' over-estimation of turnout may, in fact, have been a big part of why they got the election as a whole wrong.  If that's the case, it's something they need to work on.

Yes. This is what I was getting at.

[minionofmidas]

The point of no return regarding Scottish Independence has very very very probably been crossed during this election campaign. It may quite plausibly take another generation, but my money'd be on rather less than that.

[afleitch]

The point of no return regarding Scottish Independence has very very very probably been crossed during this election campaign. It may quite plausibly take another generation, but my money'd be on rather less than that.

Ten years probably.

The truth is that independence was closer the day after the referendum than the day before it, simply because the votes had been cast. I wouldn't be surprised if it's simply granted without a vote by the next but one government.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Three election petitions have been submitted:

Orkney and Shetland: as reported upthread four electors allege false statements by Alastair Carmichael.

Mid Bedfordshire: an independent candidate alleges false statements by Nadine Dorries.  By all accounts they hate each other with a passion so this could be fun to watch.

Woking: the "Magna Party Conservation Party" candidate alleges that the Tory MP wasn't qualified to be a candidate.

[joevsimp]

was there any more about that ukip candidate in Darlington who got left off some of the ballot papers

[Cubby]

I haven't been able to find a good 2015 UK Election results map where you could click on a district and it would tell you who won, by how much and who the opponents were, etc. Wikipedia has more info like that than the BBC, Guardian and Telegraph websites combined.

So I apologize for being late to the discussion but I just learned today that the Lib Dems were completely wiped out in their usual stronghold of Cornwall. Were there any reasons for that besides the nationwide drop in their support? They always did well there, even before 2010.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well none of their majorities there were large, which given the general picture...

[joevsimp]

I haven't been able to find a good 2015 UK Election results map where you could click on a district and it would tell you who won, by how much and who the opponents were, etc. Wikipedia has more info like that than the BBC, Guardian and Telegraph websites combined.

yeah, the bbc were rubbish with that this year, they've had full flash animated maps at the last two

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm honestly not sure what the fyck is wrong with the Beeb at the moment. They seem determined to turn everything to sh!t.

[Cubby]

Okay, thanks. It seems like Labour does terrible in Cornwall anyway, so Lib Dems are the only viable opposition to the Conservatives. Is it because it's seen as a more "urban" party, and Cornwall is very rural? That's part of the reason Democrats did so bad in places like Michigan and Minnesota until FDR.

yeah, the bbc were rubbish with that this year, they've had full flash animated maps at the last two

For the 2005 and 2010 elections, there was a great website where you could click on each constituency and it would give you a 2 or 3 sentence description of it. Also had election results going back to 1992. I think it was on the Guardian's website. I was very disappointed they didn't have it this time.

[jaichind]

I haven't been able to find a good 2015 UK Election results map where you could click on a district and it would tell you who won, by how much and who the opponents were, etc. Wikipedia has more info like that than the BBC, Guardian and Telegraph websites combined.

So I apologize for being late to the discussion but I just learned today that the Lib Dems were completely wiped out in their usual stronghold of Cornwall. Were there any reasons for that besides the nationwide drop in their support? They always did well there, even before 2010.

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/