UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[jaichind]

Conservative leader David Cameron now 5/6 at Betfair; previously had been evens.
Labour leader Ed Miliband’s odds of becoming PM lengthen to 6/5 from evens, Betfair says in e-mail

[jaichind]

Final Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 33 (-1), LD 10 (-), UKIP 14 (+1), Greens 5 (-), Others 5 (-)

[jaichind]

GUARDIAN/ICM POLL

LABOUR 35%, CONSERVATIVE 34% UKIP 11%, LIB DEM 9%, SNP 5%, GREENS 4%

[jaichind]

 ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index”, respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score, continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%

[jaichind]

Pretty much all the political betting shops odds has CON+LD around 316 seats which I guess is their basis for better than even odds for Cameron for PM.

[jaichind]

Bottom-feeding wing of Tory blogosphere getting a little bit paranoid.

The pencil actually points to UKIP

[jaichind]

The political betting markets are slowing moving against CON.  Whereas before they had CON+LD at 315 now they are more like 312 313.

[jaichind]

YES!!!

[jaichind]

There must be massive UKIP tactical voting for CON.

[jaichind]

So the seat projection is that SNP won each and every Scottish seat (isn't 58 seats all Scotland has?), and the LD's have 10 seats?

58 out of 59 seats.  Wow.  I figured anti-SNP tactical voting would save a few seats but exit polls says not good enough.

[jaichind]

If exit poll holds then SNP won this election in so many ways.  Total victory Scotland is only one of its victories. Triggering a UKIP tactical voting in England & Wales scared of a LAB-SNP deal is another.  The political narrative of Scotland and rest of UK are now completely split. SNP completely dominated this election.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that Ed Balls is defeated

[jaichind]

Political betting markets at  

Con 306 .. Lab 252 .. LibDem 26.5 .. SNP 46.5

So the exit polls it not completely believed.

[jaichind]

LAB under performed exit poll in Sunderland. UKIP over performed.  

[jaichind]

Political markets

CON  306
LAB   251
LD       15.5
SNP      54.5

converging toward exit poll results.

[jaichind]

Political markets


CON   307
LAB    250
LD        15.5
UKIP      3
SNP     54.5

More convergence toward exit poll results

[jaichind]

What does "Lost deposit" mean?

Every candidate must put up a deposit which is not returned if vote share is below 5% (I am not sure of threshold).  The idea is to stop joke candidates.

[jaichind]

Suggestions that Galloway might be struggling in Bradford West.

NO!!!  I always have a soft spot for Galloway.

[jaichind]

GBP jumps 1% on exit polls.

[jaichind]

The Danish PM will be at Stephen Kinnock's count.  Is this a first a foreign leader will be at a UK count ?

[jaichind]

The Conservatives have held Swindon North - 104th on the Labour target list.  No figures yet

Tory vote up 4,000.

[jaichind]

Swindon North:
50% Conservative
28% Labour
15% UKIP
3% Green
3% Lib Dem (slightly behind Green)

2010 results:
45% Conservative
31% Labour
17% Lib Dem
4% UKIP
3% BNP
1% Green

A disastrous result for LAB.  in all 4 seats so far CON+UKIP are well above all expectations.

[jaichind]

UK political markets

CON        309
LAB         249
LD            15
UKIP          3.5
SNP         54.5

[jaichind]

It is clear looking at Putney results that there was very effective CON UKIP tactical voting.  In areas of CON weakness UKIP over-performed since it did not matter.  In areas of CON strength UKIP does worst than expected as UKIP tactically vote for CON.

[jaichind]

I'm starting to wonder if Clegg will actually hold his seat...

He will need strong CON tactical voting for LD.