UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) (user search)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 175701 times)
Gallium
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Posts: 270
« on: May 07, 2015, 04:07:47 PM »
WTF.

This is on a whole over level to 1992.
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Gallium
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 270
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2015, 04:35:28 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on May 07, 2015, 04:20:16 PM
YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48
This has a sample size of 6000. The BBC one has 20,000...

Sad
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Gallium
Jr. Member
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Posts: 270
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 04:45:53 PM »
Quote from: ag on May 07, 2015, 04:42:20 PM
Quote from: Governor Gass3268 on May 07, 2015, 04:41:31 PM
Quote from: Gallium on May 07, 2015, 04:35:28 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on May 07, 2015, 04:20:16 PM
YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48
This has a sample size of 6000. The BBC one has 20,000...

Sad

Increase in polling size after 2,000 respondents has almost no effect on the margin of error.

Nationwide - you are right. But the point of polling 20,000 is to have constituency samples.
Also the Yougov poll isn't even an exit poll, it's a recontact survey.
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Gallium
Jr. Member
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Posts: 270
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2015, 04:51:54 PM »
Electoral Calculus who were most accurate at the 2010 election are predicting:

CON = 280

LAB = 274

LIB DEM = 21

SNP = 52
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Gallium
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Posts: 270
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2015, 05:01:06 PM »
He's not an MP so that's not possible.
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Gallium
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 270
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2015, 07:34:54 PM »
Swings away from Labour in London and now Wales is just terrible.
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