UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[MaxQue]

Not surprising fter the media gave the election to Conservative way before it began, as a thank you gift for lack of action after Leveson inquiry.

[MaxQue]

Tories must have cleaned up Cornwall, and massive UKIP tactical voting in Con-Lab marginals.  Epic failure for pollsters.

Or epic failure by exit pollsters. One of them failed.

[MaxQue]

Labour sources say Farage ends up third in South Thanet.

Those are baseless Twitter rumours, as with every count.

[MaxQue]

They're saying the Lib Dems aren't going to get their deposit back in many seats. How low do you have to fall for that to happen?

5%

[MaxQue]

So, what, LDs should end with around 5 seats?

[MaxQue]

Will Tory go in coalition with LD rump caucus or go minority deals with LD and DUP?

Well, to find the answer to that question, we need more data. Will Tories have a majority by themselves? If they are short, by how much?

[MaxQue]

At this point in time, the net gains and losses of Con-LD and Lab-SNP blocs are exactly on par. So why should we be worried ? Because of that exit poll in the early evening ? What evidence is supporting that really ? I'm really asking, cause it doesn't seem to me disastrous, just looking at the raw figures we have now, but I don't know the seats well and maybe there are some very significant losses in strongholds.

Lab takes LD seats, but lose seats to Con.
Con also takes LD seats.

I remember you Con-LD had a majority. So, it's quite possible to have the blocs totals staying the same, but Conservatives having a majority.

[MaxQue]

Latest BBC projection- 325-232

1 short of majority

SF will not take their seats so 325 will be a majority.

Add the two UUP guys, who are Tories in all but name, and 8 DUP guys, who would support them, and you have it pretty safe.

Why DUP would support them? They will only if Cameron gives them goodies, and I don't see him wasting money on NI if not needed.

[MaxQue]

-21 for CON/LD
+20 for LAB/SNP

That gaps just keeps widening... Still waiting for the good news for the right.

What the hell is that? UK politics don't work in blocks like that.

[MaxQue]

If the Tories win what I think is a recount against the SNP in Berwickshire, they could end up the second-largest party (by number of MPs) in Scotland.

They will if they win it. Berwickshire is the only non-declared seat in Scotland.

[MaxQue]

Just a few updates: Ed Balls seat won't likely declare for another hour or hour-and-a-half and Thanet South (which has Farage) hasn't started counting yet.

Any information about Brighton (about the other small party)?

[MaxQue]

LD hold Bristol West. At least, 7.

No. Labour won it 36-27 over Greens. LD 3rd at 19%.

[MaxQue]

Where now for UKIP I wonder?

Did very well in the NE of England; if they pick the right successor to Farage and Labour doesn't win back the white working class, then they could make a good number of gains in 2020.

The issue is than UKIP has an MP, Douglas Carswell, which will push the party in a direction not really compatible with the North East working class.

[MaxQue]

I honestly can't see either Nick Clegg or Ed Miliband staying on as leaders of their parties after this election...

That's easy to say 15 minutes after Clegg announced his resignation as leader!

So, no joke, already done. And Farage repeated all night he would resign if losing. So, 2/3. Only Milibrand left, should happen in the next hours/days.

[MaxQue]

I don't know much about Ian Murray, but the fact that he held on against the tide has to be a plus....

No, just no. The Scottish Labour leader ought to be a MSP sitting in Edinburgh, not an MP sitting in London.