UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) (user search)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 175727 times)
Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« on: May 07, 2015, 04:06:33 PM »
Conservative majority.

I'm calling it.
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Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2015, 04:08:59 PM »
Haha just as I was warming to Ed...

Brutal.
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Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 04:16:40 PM »
Do exit polls factor in postal ballots? Half the people I know voted through the post.
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Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2015, 04:51:55 PM »
UKIP second in Sunderland!
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Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2015, 04:54:37 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on May 07, 2015, 04:53:49 PM
okay when are the BBC going to whip out the SWINGOMETER

Too many parties, too many tactical voters.
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Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2015, 05:00:03 PM »

He's in New York.
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Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2015, 05:23:48 PM »

You have to pay a deposit to get on the ballot which you lose if you don't meet a certain vote threshold.
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Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2015, 08:15:56 PM »
The conservatives will get a majority. That's increasingly clear.
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Iosif
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2015, 08:02:58 AM »
It looks like this is what happened:

Tories bled votes to UKIP in the South in seats they had large majorities so not enough to actually lose seats.
Labour bled votes to UKIP in the North in seats they had large majorities so not enough to actually lose seats.
Labour bled votes to the Greens in the South in seats they had large majorities so not enough to actually lose seats.
Labour bled all their votes and seats in Scotland to the SNP.
The Lib Dems collapsed. Votes and seats went roughly 70% to Tories and 30% to Labour in England and Wales and 100% to SNP in Scotland.
The Tories and Labour swapped marginals in equal numbers (Labour won London, Tories elsewhere).

The results was largely a wash from 2010 except the Lib Dems collapsed and the Tories benefited the most, hence their narrow majority. Labour lost seats because they lost more seats to the SNP than they gained from the Lib Dems.
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