UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Peter]

Somewhere in South England - LD straight ticket: the seat is going Conservative, though my council ward is actually a LD-Con marginal.

Those of you who know me from yonder year may know that I am a teacher (11-18 school). I was helping out with the school election (we had C,Lab,G,UKIP candidates) and was amazed at how the kids were energised about it today, including talking about it quite sensibly in lessons. We have about 1800 students and the turnout was over 1000, which was really good to see.

[Peter]

I'm going to make one suggestion why the BBC et al exit could be wrong. That poll is taken outside polling stations rather than phone/net polling.

Is it possible we have shy Unionist voters in Scotland and shy LD voters in England?

[Peter]

CON + LD are -8, LAB + SNP is +8.  is that just reflective of where the results are coming from, since everyone has agreed that Labour disaster is the only possible outcome?

why are you including the Lib Dems with the Tories and why are you including the SNP with Labour?

the first is easy: they've governed by coalition for 5 years.

That's dead. The Lib Dem has split to either the Tories, SNP, or Labour depending on the seat.

They really have been reduced to a few fringes once again. Some MPs may be able to hold on and keep the Lib Dems going on hibernation such as Farron, Carmichael, the Ceredigion MP, and possibly anybody in the West country. MPs who might somehow survive elsewhere (London?) should find a new party to have a hope.

[Peter]

3 loonies in a row on stage at the Uxbridge count!

[Peter]

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Parliamentary Party end up defecting as the LD organisation could suffer atrophy in certain areas in the next few months.

Carmichael - the Viking Islands - to some kind of Scottish Unionists.
Clegg himself to the Tories
Don't know enough about John Pugh or Southport to make an intelligent suggestion
Farron might remain in the LDs as the local organisation is v strong in the Lakes.
Williams - Ceredigion - another absolute stalwart area, but Plaid Cymru or Labour is not beyond the realm
Tom Brake - Carshalton - given the area, Conservative is the natural home, but don't know enough about his views to see if that would be palatable.

[Peter]

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Parliamentary Party end up defecting as the LD organisation could suffer atrophy in certain areas in the next few months.

Carmichael - the Viking Islands - to some kind of Scottish Unionists.
Clegg himself to the Tories
Don't know enough about John Pugh or Southport to make an intelligent suggestion
Farron might remain in the LDs as the local organisation is v strong in the Lakes.
Williams - Ceredigion - another absolute stalwart area, but Plaid Cymru or Labour is not beyond the realm
Tom Brake - Carshalton - given the area, Conservative is the natural home, but don't know enough about his views to see if that would be palatable.

They survived worse. Why would they disappear now?

The MPs who soldiered on in the 50s-70s knew exactly what they were getting into when they became MP -  a small rump presence, at least some of whom were supported by local deals with either Conservative or Labour parties. The present day MPs have all been MPs in a period when the LDs have been the third party of the UK, and are suddenly reduced to fifth party status with all the damnation that entails.

[Peter]

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Parliamentary Party end up defecting as the LD organisation could suffer atrophy in certain areas in the next few months.

Carmichael - the Viking Islands - to some kind of Scottish Unionists.
Clegg himself to the Tories
Don't know enough about John Pugh or Southport to make an intelligent suggestion
Farron might remain in the LDs as the local organisation is v strong in the Lakes.
Williams - Ceredigion - another absolute stalwart area, but Plaid Cymru or Labour is not beyond the realm
Tom Brake - Carshalton - given the area, Conservative is the natural home, but don't know enough about his views to see if that would be palatable.

They survived worse. Why would they disappear now?

The MPs who soldiered on in the 50s-70s knew exactly what they were getting into when they became MP -  a small rump presence, at least some of whom were supported by local deals with either Conservative or Labour parties. The present day MPs have all been MPs in a period when the LDs have been the third party of the UK, and are suddenly reduced to fifth party status with all the damnation that entails.

But they have the traditions to maintain Except for the last 5 years they have always been the hopeless also runs: the difference between minor third and fifth is not that big.  They still have a base of 2 mln. votes: and that is the hardcore that can be built on. A lot better than the greens. And, unlike UKIP, they are nicely concentrated in places.

We shall see. Hopefully, they survive. Or they will have to be invented anew

There is a big difference between 3rd and 5th in terms of Westminster organisation. No formal whips office, so no formal right to nominate members to committees. Their committee seats will be entirely in the gift of the other 3.

[Peter]

Remember that recounts don't always (or even usually) mean a close result.  Of course, with Balls's seat it should be very close, but usually recount requests come from smaller candidates trying to save their deposits. 

speaking of deposits, at this point in the night the Liberal Democrats have lost £141,500

Mortgaging the entire Lake District should cover it.

[Peter]

Where is the successor to F & S T? ie. Where is the smallest majority in the country?

[Peter]

Anyone find a nice tidy list of the top thirty or so closest seats in terms of victory margin?

Constituency - Result - Majority - %
Derby North   CON GAIN FROM LAB   41   0.1
Gower   CON GAIN FROM LAB   27   0.1
Chester, City of   LAB GAIN FROM CON   93   0.2
Croydon Central   CON HOLD   165   0.3
Ealing Central & Acton   LAB GAIN FROM CON   274   0.5
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk   SNP GAIN FROM LD   328   0.6
Ynys Mon   LAB HOLD   229   0.7
Vale of Clwyd   CON GAIN FROM LAB   237   0.7
Bury North   CON HOLD   378   0.8
Brentford & Isleworth   LAB GAIN FROM CON   465   0.8
Morley & Outwood   CON GAIN FROM LAB   422   0.9
Halifax   LAB HOLD   428   1
Wirral West   LAB GAIN FROM CON   417   1
Fermanagh & South Tyrone   UUP GAIN FROM SF   530   1
Thurrock   CON HOLD   536   1.1
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport   CON HOLD   523   1.1
Ilford North   LAB GAIN FROM CON   589   1.2
Cambridge   LAB GAIN FROM LD   599   1.2
Eastbourne   CON GAIN FROM LD   733   1.4
Newcastle-under-Lyme   LAB HOLD   650   1.5
Brighton Kemptown   CON HOLD   690   1.5
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale   CON HOLD   798   1.5
Bolton West   CON GAIN FROM LAB   801   1.6
Weaver Vale   CON HOLD   806   1.7
Telford   CON GAIN FROM LAB   730   1.8
Barrow & Furness   LAB HOLD   795   1.8
Wolverhampton South West   LAB GAIN FROM CON   801   2
Lewes   CON GAIN FROM LD   1083   2.1
Hampstead & Kilburn   LAB HOLD   1138   2.1
Belfast South   SDLP HOLD   906   2.3

[Peter]

Not entirely sure, but surely in practice it would be a yes. I do know that 10% of the parliamentary party must nominate a candidate before they can get onto the ballot: which, this time, means self-nomination, lol.

If only John Hemming had survived ....

[Peter]

Anybody know why the Lib Dem vote held up so well in Maidstone compared to the rest of Kent?

Whilst it was their strongest constituency in 2010 in Kent, they had other pretty healthy numbers in other seats, and those didn't hold up anywhere near as well.

[Peter]

Seats with the most saved deposits:
I have found:
Strangford with 7! (SDLP, DUP, UUP, SF, Alliance, TUV, NI Conservatives)

South West Surrey with 6 (C, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, National Health Action)
Belfast South with 6 (SDLP, DUP, UUP, SF, Alliance, Green), and UKIP nearly made it (4.9%)
South Antrim with 6 (SDLP, DUP, UUP, SF, Alliance, TUV)
East Antrim with 6 (SDLP, DUP, UUP, SF, Alliance, TUV)
North Antrim with 6 (SDLP, DUP, UUP, SF, Alliance, TUV)
Ceredigion with all 6 candidates (C, Lab, LD, Plaid, UKIP, Green)

[Peter]

And who are the Liberal Democrat voters who are "delighted"/"pleased on balance" with a result that has all but destroyed their party?

There will be a handful of Lib Dem voters who are in fact not LD supporters - there will have been Tory supporters who voted LD in LD-Lab marginals such as Sheffield Hallam believing that a need to retain the coalition was paramount. They should rightly be "delighted" with the result, though I can't honestly believe 9% of the LD vote is a tactical Tory element.

There will be others who are Orange Book liberals who believed in the personal finance reforms of the coalition (increase in personal allowance, pension reform, etc) who soundly believe it will continue under a Conservative only govt. I think they could be said to be "pleased on balance", however not all will be!

The Beveridge side of the party should rightly be dismayed at the loss of so many MPs, including so many of their own senior staff (though interestingly more Beveridge MPs survived than Orange Bookers), however, they may actually believe that now being out of coalition gives them hope to rebuild.

[Peter]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_West_Derby_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

This might be their biggest epic fail. I'm sure someone will see what I'm referring to...

Liberal Democrat behind the Liberal candidate?

Hardly surprising given the Liberal survival there for 25 years. The biggest epic fails are places like the Isle of Wight where they have gone from holding the seat less than 20 years ago, to barely holding their deposit.

I'm not aware of any recent wins from general elections where they have actually lost their deposit. Anybody?

[Peter]

Why is PC's support so unevenly distributed?

Oh, and why did Westmoreland & Lonsdale remain so heavily LD when it was a Tory seat until only ten years ago?  Is Farron just that popular?

Yes. Yes, he is.

I have travelled locally around the South East recently and seen very few political signs etc., even in the plausible Lab/C or LD/C marginals.  When I was in the Lake District (which is basically W&L) at Easter, I was simply met by the wall of YOU ARE IN LIB DEM COUNTRY signs. Immensely popular - remember that area supported Lib Dem in the European elections. The area has a strong Lib Dem presence in local government and has done for many years. Remarkably Farron has very successfully crystalised support in this VERY hostile environment.

[Peter]

Can someone more knowledgeable than me discuss whether the Cameron government will be able to last the entire five year term, assuming the usual by-election losses one would anticipate?  Can they assume support from the DUP and the handful of LDs?

The majority is large enough that it's loss over the course of the parliament is not certain, but is small enough that it is not unlikely. Whether it lasts for the full course of this parliament depends to a considerable extent on luck.

On the second point, certainly not. The DUP have no love for the Tories and would demand payment in exchange for votes. Lord knows with regards to the LibDems.

What "payment" might the DUP demand? They made reassuring noises during the election, stating that they were open to working with whomever to form a stable government, based on an informal arrangement, thinking their party too small for anything more formal.

In addition to Al's point of the DUPs demand simply being 0s on a cheque, I think the most likely support could come from the UUP - they are historically much closer - they fought 2010 on a joint ticket (though that may not have been actually advantageous for either) and its former leader David Trimble did turn Tory in the House of Lords. Sylvia Hermon may also be willing to support the Tories in key votes, but this would be harder for her due to her opposition to the aforementioned joint ticket.

[Peter]

Something that needs to be asked is: Has FPTP ever had a more epic failure? 1983 is nothing in comparison to this.

One of the least proportional outcomes in UK history. Around the same level as 1983 and 1931

How is your proportionality score calculated?