UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

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SNP (58)
LibDems (10)

Did they even hold on to Orkney & Shetland at 10 seats? And if not, I wonder what one seat in Scotland refused to vote SNP.

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So the seat projection is that SNP won each and every Scottish seat (isn't 58 seats all Scotland has?), and the LD's have 10 seats?

No, Scotland has 59. One seat resisted the onslaught.

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DUP on 8, so it seems likely Alliance has held on if the poll is right?

That or they lost Upper Bann, which was marginal in 2010.

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Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.

It can be that wrong; Oct 1974 is a classic example.

What happened then? I know about 1992, but I haven't heard of Oct 1974 as an exit polling snafu.

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Is there a map where live results are being uploaded to?

Yes, there are many such, but in Britain partial results are never reported -- seats announce the total vote figures when they have counted all votes. Thus, so far all maps are blank.

The guy who did the exit poll says Lib Dems got about 8% nationally (like the polls said), but no incumbency advantage.

All 10 who won had an incumbency advantage, I'd imagine.

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I actually really like David Cameron as a person, but then I think Madeleine and I have noticed before that we have opposite opinions on this sort of thing.

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I actually really like David Cameron as a person, but then I think Madeleine and I have noticed before that we have opposite opinions on this sort of thing.

To be fair we have opposite opinions on most things.

True, true. Still a pleasure to talk with you usually

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538 had H&SW as 59% Labour, 22% Tories, 13% UKIP. The actual results were 55% Labour, 21% UKIP, 19% Tories. Of course the 538 model has been criticized by many here, and with good reason, but it reflects 'conventional wisdom' about this election pretty well. Now, UKIP won't be up 8% on polling numbers all around the country, but if they are in some places, that's a very good sign for them. I would feel encouraged right now if I was Farage.

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What does "Lost deposit" mean?

Below 5%, or symbolically relegated to minor-party status in a certain constituency.

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What does "Lost deposit" mean?

Below 5%, or symbolically relegated to minor-party status in a certain constituency.

I never thought 500 quid was merely symbolic

When it happens on a massive scale in many constituencies, those 500 quid also start to add up, but usually when commentators are talking about parties losing deposits they're referring more to the loss of face than the loss of money

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The random far-left candidate in Washington & Sunderland West taking a selfie with the returning officer

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I'm following The Daily Telegraph & The Guardian, because the American media sucks and wouldn't follow a foreign election if it's life depended on it.

The former says the SNP won every seat but one in Scotland. What is the one seat and what is the party that won it? It'd be hilarious if it was that one seat in the Southwest that the Tories already have. Its like Dumfries or something.

The safest non-SNP seat in Scotland is probably Orkney & Shetland, which are two islands far to Scotland's north that are absolutely safe for the Lib Dems, that basically stayed as a Liberal stronghold through their whole mid-20th century wilderness period.

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If Britain is divisible, Scotland must be divisible.

Everybody is divisible in principle, but Scotland may prove harder to divide than Britain.

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

Are Tory voters voting ukip in safe lab seats for the hell of it?

No, but UKIP voters in Lab/Tory marginals are suspected to be backing the Tories rather than throwing their votes away. It'll be an interesting exercise, after this election, to plot margin vs. UKIP vote, to see if UKIP does better in noncompetitive seats (which I suspect is the case).

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Swindon North:
50% Conservative
28% Labour
15% UKIP
3% Green
3% Lib Dem (slightly behind Green)

2010 results:
45% Conservative
31% Labour
17% Lib Dem
4% UKIP
3% BNP
1% Green

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Putney:
54% Conservative
30% Labour
6% Liberal Democrat
5% Green (lost deposit, round up)
5% UKIP (likewise)

2010:
52% Conservative
28% Labour
17% Liberal Democrat
1% Green
1% BNP
1% UKIP

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I know it's still early, but it looks like the Lib Dems might do worse than what the exit poll is suggesting.

The 10 seats would all be won on aberrational local popularity, so these results don't really indicate anything for those kinds of seats. Normally a party that wins 8% of the national vote wins no seats in the United Kingdom.

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Newcastle upon Tyne East:
49% Labour
18% Conservative
13% UKIP
11% Liberal Democrat
9% Green

2010:
45% Labour
33% Liberal Democrat
16% Conservative
4% BNP
2% Green
1% Communist

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Lab win Newcastle upon Tyne Center. Tooting moved to 47-42 Labour in 2015 from 44-39 Labour in 2010; swing from minor to major parties, but basically no movement between the Top Two.

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Battersea:
52% Conservative
37% Labour
4% Liberal Democrat
3% Green
3% UKIP

2010:
47% Conservative
35% Labour
15% Liberal Democrat
1% Green
1% UKIP

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Wrexham:
37% Labour
32% Conservative
16% UKIP
8% Plaid Cymru
5% Liberal Democrat (keep deposit)
2% Green
1% Independent

2010:
37% Labour
26% Liberal Democrat
25% Conservative
6% Plaid Cymru
3% BNP
2% UKIP

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Lagan Valley is a DUP hold over UUP, 48-15 (it was 50-21 in 2010), while Foyle is an SDLP hold over Sinn Fein, 48-32 (it was 45-32 in 2010).

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Clwyd South:
37% Labour
30% Conservative
16% UKIP
10% Plaid Cymru
4% Liberal Democrat
3% Green

2010:
38% Labour
30% Conservative
17% Liberal Democrat
9% Plaid Cymru
3% BNP
2% UKIP

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Nuneaton hold by CON on a positive swing.

First seat I got wrong:

CON - 45.5% (+4)
LAB - 34.9% (-2)
UKIP - 14.4% (+14.4)
GRN - 2.8% (+2.8 )
LD - 1.8% (-13.6%)

46-35 in Nuneaton; was 42-37 in 2010. Very encouraging.

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UUP gain South Antrim from DUP

Who is UUP? The more militant Unionist faction of old?

The less militant Unionist faction of old returning to Parliament after a 6-year hiatus

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Alasdair McDonnell holds Belfast South for the SDLP.

With 24.5% of the vote.