UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[afleitch]

It's worth noting that the BBC will only announce results after they have been declared. ITV/Sky News have a tendency to declare seats when everyone knows the outcome but it's not been declared. So they might be further ahead.

[afleitch]

Fun fact: One of my friends is a lesbian UKIP supporter. (She's been bullish about their chances. She'll be very disappointed.)

Um...

[afleitch]

I feel a little sick.

[afleitch]

Regarding 1992 comparisons, the exit polls were actually wrong that year. I point his out as a pedant.

The %'s were not far wrong that year, but the projection was wrong. It would be nice to see aggregate voting intention figures for this exit poll.

[afleitch]

Slightly worse result for Labour than the exit pol suggested.

[afleitch]

My stomach is in knots.

[afleitch]

I'll say it: [Inks] the SNP.

If it makes you feel better. But if no seats in Scotland changed hands then the Tories would have 1 more seat on the Exit Poll and the Lib Dems 11 more. And they would be able to form a coalition anyway.

[afleitch]

2 Scottish accented returning officers in a row

[afleitch]

Another small swing in London. Once again worse than the exit poll.

[afleitch]

A Conservative majority is not out of sight. We need actual marginals though.

[afleitch]

Swing to the Conservatives in Wrexham

[afleitch]

Jim Murphy may have lost his seat.

[afleitch]

Jim Murphy may have lost his seat.

What's Murphy's seat?

East Renfrewshire. Former rock solid Tory, Labour since 1997.

[afleitch]

Rumours of Hartlepool recount. Any news?

[afleitch]

Nuneaton!

[afleitch]

Woo!

[afleitch]

Motherwell falls
East Kilbride falls

[afleitch]

My seat, Rutherglen and Hamilton West falls.

[afleitch]

Greenock gone.

SNP are now winning seats in places they didn't win in 2011.

[afleitch]

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSS!

[afleitch]

Did Labour just spend all it's money on London?

No change there....

[afleitch]

Dudley South and Stockton South held.

[afleitch]

Labour hold Edinburgh South.

[afleitch]

I'll just leave this here:

There's a bit of fear that 2010 wasn't Labour's floor. That it could sink further below what it got. The polls themselves don't show a great deal of CON to LAB switchers. There's an over-reliance on Lib Dem 2010 voters leaking back to Labour where it counts and an over expectation that UKIP won't damage them. What you could find is that in traditionally suburban seats like Bolton West that Labour hold by a gnats wing, the Lib Dem voters who have stayed with them from 1997, could leak disproportionately back to the Conservatives, gifting them the seat from Labour. There is also a problem in Scotland, which while it may be fleeting, currently shows Labour performing as badly (and the SNP performing as well) at Westminster as they are at Holyrood, with voting intentions at 2011 levels. While Labour are maxed out in Scotland, they can't really afford to fall back.

[afleitch]

Balls out.