Is this map a realistic possibility in 2016?
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  Is this map a realistic possibility in 2016?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Is this map a realistic possibility in 2016?  (Read 3046 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: May 07, 2015, 08:48:58 PM »

Dem 347
GOP 191
(Dems win all 2012 Dem states plus NC)
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2015, 08:52:29 PM »
How about this one? Add in MO, GA, IN, AZ, NE-2 for Dems.


Dem 396
GOP 142
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 08:55:20 PM »
First one, yes definitely.   Second,  No, probably not.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2015, 08:56:51 PM »
The first map is possible in a good year for Democrats. The second map is only possible in a wave year or if the Republican is someone like Ben Carson.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2015, 08:57:42 PM »
Looking at it the other way, how about this one? GOP picks up FL, OH, VA, CO, PA, NH.


Dem 239
GOP 299
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2015, 09:46:52 PM »
Quote from: mathstatman on May 07, 2015, 08:57:42 PM
Looking at it the other way, how about this one? GOP picks up FL, OH, VA, CO, PA, NH.


Dem 239
GOP 299

Paul vs. Clinton.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2015, 01:58:27 AM »
None of them are, but I prefer the last two😊
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2015, 06:34:47 AM »
They all are within the range. Try something bolder.
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Slander and/or Libel
Figs
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2015, 10:57:56 AM »
PA is fool's gold for Republicans.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2015, 11:23:37 AM »
2012 + NC flips back to blue is fairly likely.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2015, 12:09:36 PM »
Quote from: mathstatman on May 07, 2015, 08:57:42 PM
Looking at it the other way, how about this one? GOP picks up FL, OH, VA, CO, PA, NH.


Dem 239
GOP 299

Quote from: mathstatman on May 07, 2015, 08:48:58 PM

Dem 347
GOP 191
(Dems win all 2012 Dem states plus NC)

These two maps are possible. History favors the Republican map, but under ideal circumstances, Clinton could take the Obama states + North Carolina.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2015, 12:10:12 PM »
Any of these are possible, just with solidly bad candidates nominated by the losing party. The second one posted by OP would really have to be a landslide, though.
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Slander and/or Libel
Figs
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« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2015, 12:15:05 PM »
Quote from: Mister Mets on May 08, 2015, 12:09:36 PM
These two maps are possible. History favors the Republican map, but under ideal circumstances, Clinton could take the Obama states + North Carolina.

I get that you're saying (I think) that history favors a Republican win after two Democratic terms. But in what way does history favor that particular map? PA in Republican hands? What history are you leaning on here?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2015, 03:17:46 PM »


This is the best that any Republican nominee can hope for. 275-263.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2015, 03:38:14 PM »
Yes but its unlikely. Its more likely that this election will be closer than 2008 and 2012.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2015, 03:43:06 PM »
Hillary moving to the left all but ensures she will do no better than Obama did in 2012. She wont get the moderate GOP woman vote and the independent white vote. Her campaign will be well to the left of her husbands 1996 campaign which means she wont be going for the white blue collar vote either.

The Dems have decided that the McGovern coalition is now the majority and that is what they will pursue.

As such there will be no Hillary landslide.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2015, 04:04:07 PM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on May 08, 2015, 03:17:46 PM


This is the best that any Republican nominee can hope for. 275-263.

No Republican can so much to even hope to win in Iowa?
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2015, 04:40:18 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on May 08, 2015, 04:04:07 PM
Quote from: pbrower2a on May 08, 2015, 03:17:46 PM


This is the best that any Republican nominee can hope for. 275-263.

No Republican can so much to even hope to win in Iowa?

If VA and CO go GOP, so will IA
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Goldwater
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« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2015, 06:09:18 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on May 08, 2015, 04:04:07 PM
Quote from: pbrower2a on May 08, 2015, 03:17:46 PM


This is the best that any Republican nominee can hope for. 275-263.

No Republican can so much to even hope to win in Iowa?

Or Nevada? Or New Hampshire?
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2015, 07:28:31 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2015, 07:31:49 PM by mathstatman »
OK... how about this one? 269-269 tie
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2015, 07:47:59 PM »
Quote from: mathstatman on May 08, 2015, 07:28:31 PM
OK... how about this one? 269-269 tie


That is the dumbest map Ive ever seen
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Nyvin
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« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2015, 07:48:41 PM »
Quote from: mathstatman on May 08, 2015, 07:28:31 PM
OK... how about this one? 269-269 tie


Wtf is that?
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2015, 07:56:24 PM »
I was thinking Clinton/Manchin vs Bush/Collins or Bush/Kirk or Bush/Portman
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2015, 08:01:40 PM »
Dumb?


Dem 250
Rep 230
Conservative Populist 30
Green 22
Libertarian 6
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2015, 10:20:48 PM »

McCain vs Clinton 2008 maybe? Or possibly an incredibly unrealistic tie electoral map? Tongue
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