Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who are the "centrists"? Are you referring to the union of dentists?

[politicus]

Who are the "centrists"? Are you referring to the union of dentists?

Nah Just voters not identifying with the right or left. Greece has a history of an unusually sharp left/right dichotomy, so people who dont identify with either side or tradition. Last time Syriza was still red and ND was pandering to the hard right - with some pretty militant rhetoric from some of their candidates.

[jmlv]

The big losers of this election is Popular Unity. Zoe, the president of parliament, did not get a seat. Kke and Golden Down seem stuck with hardcore voters.

[Bacon King]

Why did Potami lose so much, BTW? You'd have thought Tsipras' acceptance of austerity would have proved them right.

After reading some comments and doing some thinking:

Three effects:

1) sh**tty campaign + uninspired leader - especially debate performance.

2) Losing votes to Pasok, which then lost moderate left wingers to new "responsible" and moderated Syriza (leftwards transfer).

3) Losing votes directly to moderate Syriza.

4) BKs idea that they lost the non-ideological protest vote to Union of Centrists.

My hypothesis is a mix between 1 and 2 were the main factors.

another major factor in To Potami's downfall is the dissociation between their claim to be a party of technocrats but ran a campaign of nothing but one-line zingers

[politicus]

Why did Potami lose so much, BTW? You'd have thought Tsipras' acceptance of austerity would have proved them right.

After reading some comments and doing some thinking:

Three effects:

1) sh**tty campaign + uninspired leader - especially debate performance.

2) Losing votes to Pasok, which then lost moderate left wingers to new "responsible" and moderated Syriza (leftwards transfer).

3) Losing votes directly to moderate Syriza.

4) BKs idea that they lost the non-ideological protest vote to Union of Centrists.

My hypothesis is a mix between 1 and 2 were the main factors.

another major factor in To Potami's downfall is the dissociation between their claim to be a party of technocrats but ran a campaign of nothing but one-line zingers

That goes under sh**tty campaign.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I imagine some Potami to ND transfer, under the new, erm, moderat leader.

[Bacon King]

I imagine some Potami to ND transfer, under the new, erm, moderat leader.

I really hope Meimarakis stays on as Indefinite Interim Leader because it's hilarious to see the parliamentary opposition led by an angry old curmudgeon with such a strong personal hatred of the PM

[Zanas]

LAE are more or less back to the 3.3% that... Syriza obtained in the 2004 legislative election. Syriza was then led by Nikos Konstantopoulos. Yes, the father. O tempora, o mores.

[DavidB.]

So Syriza and ND have become moderate heroes, and the Greek people thought "not another election" and stayed home or voted for these moderate heroes because they are sane enough not to vote for the horribles XA/KKE. I commend them for that - this could have become a disaster. The situation is still hopeless, but my hopes for the future of Greece's democracy have gone up. It's a shame the Syriza splitoff didn't manage to get in.

[Bacon King]

Honestly just think of this as less of an election and more of a really complicated government shuffle and it makes more sense

[Boston Bread]

I would have hoped SYRIZA would ally with Potami (or even PASOK) rather than ANEL now that they've lost their radical side. It would at least have enabled them to cut their military spending. This election was a waste of money, all things considered.

[DavidB.]

I would have hoped SYRIZA would ally with Potami (or even PASOK) rather than ANEL now that they've lost their radical side. It would at least have enabled them to cut their military spending. This election was a waste of money, all things considered.

Spending 2% of one's GDP on Defense is a NATO requirement. Even if most Western European countries are stupid enough not to care about this bare minimum, I don't think it would be good for Greece to ignore this agreement and cut down on their military spending.

[Boston Bread]

Greece's military is 2.2% of GDP, Canada spends 1.0% of GDP. I think Greece has better reason than Canada to ignore that requirement.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Greek military is, erm, very cosseted even in the worst of times.

[Simfan34]

Greece's military is 2.2% of GDP, Canada spends 1.0% of GDP. I think Greece has better reason than Canada to ignore that requirement.

"Canada’s role in the world: Strong, proud and free-riding"

[DavidB.]

Greece's military is 2.2% of GDP, Canada spends 1.0% of GDP. I think Greece has better reason than Canada to ignore that requirement.

Two wrongs wouldn't make a right, and I'm not at all okay with Canada ignoring the bare NATO minimum (and I am very much ashamed of the fact that the Netherlands ignores it as well). Canada should absolutely go to 2.0% and Greece should at least maintain 2.0% as well, though if it's truly at 2.2% - which is news to me, but it could be the case - then it can cut back on these 0.2%. But I wouldn't support Europe pushing Greece to do so. A capable Greek military is in the interest of all of NATO.

[Vosem]

Notably for the next election, whenever it may happen, is that LAE+AnTARSYA were well over the threshold (indeed, such a coalition would be ahead of EK and ANEL under present figures) and that there is positive precedent for a small revolutionary party to exit then reenter Parliament; Synaspismos, SYRIZA's predecessor, fell beneath the threshold in 1993 but reentered Parliament in 1996. So we may not be seeing the end of these guys at all.

Also, it should be noted that there seem to be three "tiers" of parties in Greece. There are 4 main parties that crossed the threshold in every peripsereia; SYRIZA, ND, Golden Dawn (eek), and slightly-resurgent PASOK. There are 5 parties that crossed in some places but not others; KKE, Potami, ANEL, EK, and LAE (all but the last of these entered Parliament); and then numerous minor parties that did not cross the threshold anywhere, of which AnTARSYA is the largest.

Lastly, what exactly is the ideology of the Union of Centrists? I've seen them referred to as "crazy" and a "protest vote" a lot, but the only indication of their ideology that Wikipedia gives is that they seem to have a hard-on for Eleftherios Venizelos. (One of the largest minor parties, called Koinonia, also seems to have no policies but hero-worship for Ioannis Kapodistrias -- are they about to surge?) Why is their name non-indicative? (They and PASOK were the only parties to gain more than a single seat in Parliament at this election, so they can be seen as the "winners" to some extent).

[justfollowingtheelections]

Notably for the next election, whenever it may happen, is that LAE+AnTARSYA were well over the threshold (indeed, such a coalition would be ahead of EK and ANEL under present figures) and that there is positive precedent for a small revolutionary party to exit then reenter Parliament; Synaspismos, SYRIZA's predecessor, fell beneath the threshold in 1993 but reentered Parliament in 1996. So we may not be seeing the end of these guys at all.

I agree that the anti-austerity left might be back at some point, but I don't see LAE and ANTARSYA forming a coalition any time soon.  ANTARSYA rejected the proposals of LAE to cooperate.  They're one of those tiny left-wing parties that are happy getting 0.9% and have no real ambition.
The problem for LAE is that their leader Lafazanis is not an inspiring figure.  Zoe K would be a more popular leader if she's interested in the role, but they will have to become a real party first and I'm not sure if they are willing to do that after such a disappointing result.

I think the 3% threshold will be irrelevant in the next election since it's almost a certainty that the electoral system will change to something closer to proportional representation.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They were a one-man party until recently.  Their leader who was a founding member of PASOK, but left the party in 1981 was seen as a lunatic in the '90s but a youtube video where he predicted the crisis has given him new followers.  They advocate drastic changes in the public sector and the political system (they are planning to change their MPs every 6 months) and are fairly progressive on social issues.  

[/]

Syriza Wins!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34307795

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/20/us-eurozone-greece-election-idUSKCN0RJ0US20150920

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_September_2015

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Syriza Wins!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34307795

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/20/us-eurozone-greece-election-idUSKCN0RJ0US20150920

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_September_2015

I mean this in the kindest way, but

[Landslide Lyndon]

Looks like it will be SYRIZA-ANEL again.

Tsipras should seriously consider swapping them with Potami. The advantages of not being bound by Potami are gone now that they're bound by the new agreement anyway.

There's absolutely no way SYRIZA will work with Potami for two reasons.  Potami has attacked SYRIZA for how they have handled the refugee crisis by taking a very right-wing position on the issue.
The SYRIZA government also stopped the gold mining project in Skouries which had led to enormous environmental devastation.  The company that is running the project is partially owned by the Bobolas family, the oligarchs who are major stakeholders of Mega Channel (the Greek Fox News) where Theodorakis worked.  Potami after the Tsipras government resigned tried to make the Thanou-government re-open the gold mines, which has caused more tension between the two parties.  
The Ecologist Greens who are SYRIZA allies have vetoed having Potami in any government coalition.

That's a load of bull. Skouries are owned 95% by a Canadian company. Bobolas had the rest of 5% until a couple of years ago but he has since sold his stake. He is just a convenient boogeyman for leftists, much like Soros is for conservatives in the US.
And while Mega isn't a exactly a bastion of objectivity and cool-headed analysis, they certainly are not the Greek equivalent to Fox News.

Also, the Potami never tried to persuade the interim government to reopen the mines, I don't know where you got that from. They, and every other party of the opposition including communists, just criticized SYRIZA for shutting down the mine citing environmental concerns despite the fact that our supreme court green-lighted the project. 

[justfollowingtheelections]

Looks like it will be SYRIZA-ANEL again.

Tsipras should seriously consider swapping them with Potami. The advantages of not being bound by Potami are gone now that they're bound by the new agreement anyway.

There's absolutely no way SYRIZA will work with Potami for two reasons.  Potami has attacked SYRIZA for how they have handled the refugee crisis by taking a very right-wing position on the issue.
The SYRIZA government also stopped the gold mining project in Skouries which had led to enormous environmental devastation.  The company that is running the project is partially owned by the Bobolas family, the oligarchs who are major stakeholders of Mega Channel (the Greek Fox News) where Theodorakis worked.  Potami after the Tsipras government resigned tried to make the Thanou-government re-open the gold mines, which has caused more tension between the two parties.  
The Ecologist Greens who are SYRIZA allies have vetoed having Potami in any government coalition.

That's a load of bull. Skouries are owned 95% by a Canadian company. Bobolas had the rest of 5% until a couple of years ago but he has since sold his stake. He is just a convenient boogeyman for leftists, much like Soros is for conservatives in the US.
And while Mega isn't a exactly a bastion of objectivity and cool-headed analysis, they certainly are not the Greek equivalent to Fox News.

Also, the Potami never tried to persuade the interim government to reopen the mines, I don't know where you got that from. They, and every other party of the opposition including communists, just criticized SYRIZA for shutting down the mine citing environmental concerns despite the fact that our supreme court green-lighted the project. 

Excuse me if I don't consider you the most objective person when it comes to SYRIZA.  I would suggest you visit this site to learn more about the environmental devastation in Skouries:
http://antigoldgr.org/en/

Or maybe you can watch this documentary: http://webtv.ert.gr/ert3/16sep2015-antidrastirio/

Do you think this is right?
 

I would assume that the people who live in Skouries and are protesting against the project know more about the issue than you.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Excuse me if I don't consider you the most objective person when it comes to SYRIZA.  I would suggest you visit this site to learn more about the environmental devastation in Skouries:
http://antigoldgr.org/en/

Or maybe you can watch this documentary: http://webtv.ert.gr/ert3/16sep2015-antidrastirio/

Do you think this is right?
 

I would assume that the people who live in Skouries and are protesting against the project know more about the issue than you.

FYI, ND carried the city adjacent to the mine by 10 points. And I think that the voters there are much more familiar with the situation than you, me or a bunch of professional lefties from all over Europe who came here to protest.

And BTW, I'll stop accusing SYRIZA of hypocrisy when they decide to close down all our carbon-fueled electricity plants which pollute and destroy the environment for years now all over Greece.