Labour Party leadership election 2015

[ChrisDR68]

Corbyn, well some people think that the 40% who don't vote will all jump up for a 66 year old socialist-I don't know

There's a lot of nonsense being talked and written about getting non-voters energised enough to vote in my view.

In 1979 there was a 76% turnout which was considered a good number at the time. In 2015 the figure was 66%.

No-one will ever get all of the missing 34% to be motivated enough to put an X on a ballot paper if even in a good year 24% of those eligible to vote didn't bother.

At most we're talking about an extra 10% (as in 1979) but realistically it will be probably only be about 5% (which would get turnout back up to what it was in 1997).

Whether this extra 5-10% would help or hinder a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party in the 2020 general election is difficult to judge. My guess is these extra voters would probably split evenly for the two main parties as motivation to stop Corbyn becoming prime minister would increase to counteract the extra votes he may win from the previously disenfranchised (mainly young) electorate.

A similar thing happened in 1992 when turnout jumped from 75% to 78% as a lot of people who would not normally have voted did so in order to stop Neil Kinnock becoming prime minister.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Chris I don't know why you're peddling the idea that Kinnock was like reviled figure or something? Kinnock didn't exactly set the world on fire, but 1992 was not the fault of the leader. Neil was the most important post-Wilson leader Labour has ever had, unlike the overrated showboat of Blair; in terms of rescuing the party as a whole from its death spiral.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given that non-voters are disproportionately younger and poorer and given the general hostility towards parties that aren't Labour amongst that general loosely defined demographic... well, there's definitely some potential for Labour there and the Party would be foolish to think otherwise. Of course (and obviously) most people who don't vote aren't about to start now and pretending otherwise is not helpful. It's also obviously true that the large block of Lab/Con swing voters (who have an irritating habit of clustering themselves in marginal constituencies, the bastards) needs to be encouraged to swing, otherwise there's basically no hope of a win as things stand (i.e. as is always the case we need to sweep the board in the Midlands. As big as some Tory majorities in swing seats there look it is far from impossible). The assumption on both the Hard Left and the Progress Right that all of these people are basically Tories at heart (from which they draw diametrically opposed conclusions) is at once stupid and incredibly unhelpful.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incidentally the real reason for the big drop in turnout since the early 1990s generational change: people who were adults in the 1940s tended be a very political lot and as such tended to vote at absurdly high levels (and were also unusually loyal to the big two parties, but thats a different issue). They started dying off in the 1990s (and are almost all gone now, alas) and have been replaced by generations that are significantly less likely to vote.

[Silent Hunter]

It's also worth remembering that even a 30 year old is going to have no real memory of the Thatcher years or indeed Labour's difficulties there. They reached their political maturity and had their views shaped with 9/11, as well as all that followed from that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which is one reason why appeals to the Party's problems in the 1980s (or rather: in such a way that implies 'but surely you know this you idiot') as a reason to not vote Corbyn in the 1980s are unlikely to be particularly effective.

[Blair]

I know Iraq have scarred labour but why haven't Corbyn's foreign policy been attacked more? I know his supporters hate the idea of an establishment coup (The New Statesman is being accused of running operation fear, despite Stephen Bush saying Corbyn will win) but surely we should attack Corbyn for holding some awful views.

His supports keep making out as if his outreach to Hamas/Ira is some sort of realpolitik but he's just a shameless mouth piece for some pretty awful terrorist actions

[YL]

Guardian article on leading figures and candidates in the Greens and far left parties signing up as registered supporters

The thing is that I suspect many of these people regard themselves as Labour supporters in exile, so they don't have a problem with making the statement required about sharing Labour's values and not being a member of an organisation opposed to it.

[Hnv1]

Guardian article on leading figures and candidates in the Greens and far left parties signing up as registered supporters

The thing is that I suspect many of these people regard themselves as Labour supporters in exile, so they don't have a problem with making the statement required about sharing Labour's values and not being a member of an organisation opposed to it.

Does the UK law allows one to be a member of more than one party? In Israel the law forbids it and during party primaries there are usually disqualified voters over such matterss

[politicus]

Guardian article on leading figures and candidates in the Greens and far left parties signing up as registered supporters

The thing is that I suspect many of these people regard themselves as Labour supporters in exile, so they don't have a problem with making the statement required about sharing Labour's values and not being a member of an organisation opposed to it.

Does the UK law allows one to be a member of more than one party? In Israel the law forbids it and during party primaries there are usually disqualified voters over such matterss

Strange to have a law about that, parties are private associations, it should be up to them, what they will allow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is no such law here, but most political parties (including Labour: although an exception is made for the Co-operative Party) don't allow it.

[Hnv1]

Guardian article on leading figures and candidates in the Greens and far left parties signing up as registered supporters

The thing is that I suspect many of these people regard themselves as Labour supporters in exile, so they don't have a problem with making the statement required about sharing Labour's values and not being a member of an organisation opposed to it.

Does the UK law allows one to be a member of more than one party? In Israel the law forbids it and during party primaries there are usually disqualified voters over such matterss

Strange to have a law about that, parties are private associations, it should be up to them, what they will allow.

Yes parties are considered private corporations but due to the horrific effect dual membership has on democracy (especially here with the "voter contractor") it was decided to "regulate the market". It's a minor criminal offence (1 year in prison max) but I have never heard of anyone charged with this offence nor has any party ever pressed charge with those that were found to have dual membership.

but I guess a 2-3 party system was less prone to these problems until recently

[Blair]

I thought for some reason that we did have a law in place-the problem is that the only people they can weed out for the moment are former candidates, or MP's in the case of that tory who signed up. It seems stupid that Harman has emailed MP's (who are most likely on holiday) telling them to vet voters-how are they suppose to know if Joe Bloggs is a member of TUSC.

If we can't organize a leadership election god knows how we can expect people to give us the keys to number 10

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thing is that a high proportion of the members of far left organisations (which are rarely what you'd call large) are, in fact, former candidates. And there are other ways of checking; thanks to the internet its much easier to do so than was once the case.

Fact is that the quasi-tankie Commanding Heights crowd who drift in and out of the Party are far more numerically significant than various Trot sects and have generally done nothing wrong by the Party's rules.

[afleitch]

I was tempted to join the party for a laugh just so I could vote in this shambles.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well a simple google search ought to root you out in seconds, but that's assuming that whatever the relevant West of Scotland CLP is capable of using google...

[afleitch]

Well a simple google search ought to root you out in seconds, but that's assuming that whatever the relevant West of Scotland CLP is capable of using google...

I think at the moment my dad and a family friend at the Miner's Welfare is the entire CLP, so I was hoping for a bit of nepotism

[MalaspinaGold]

Corbyn's most admired Labour leader is apparently John Smith
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/07/jeremy-corbyn-interview-we-are-not-doing-celebrity-personality-or-abusive-politics

[YL]

Thing is that a high proportion of the members of far left organisations (which are rarely what you'd call large) are, in fact, former candidates. And there are other ways of checking; thanks to the internet its much easier to do so than was once the case.

Fact is that the quasi-tankie Commanding Heights crowd who drift in and out of the Party are far more numerically significant than various Trot sects and have generally done nothing wrong by the Party's rules.

Yes, members of the likes of TUSC and the interestingly-named "Left Unity" are not going to be much of a factor in this.  I'm not so sure about Greens, though, even there, the result would have to be pretty close for it to have been changed by Green members voting in it.

[Blair]

Jack Straw endorses Cooper.

Along with Alan Johnson earlier this week it looks like the New Labour lot are starting to throw their support behind her, after Kendall's complete collapse and Burnham's welfare muck up. As I've said before she could easily win despite running the most boring and flat leadership pitch. Think they see her as the best person to beat Corbyn

[ChrisDR68]

Jack Straw endorses Cooper.

Good article in the New Stateman -

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/jack-straw-yvette-winner 

Here's a snippet:

I spent my first eighteen years as MP for Blackburn in opposition.

It wasn’t that I felt impotent. It was that I saw the damage which was being done to my area and its people, witnessed the lost opportunities and wasted life-chances – and felt so angry that self-indulgence within the Party had helped us to four successive election defeats. That was the greatest betrayal of all. That betrayal was led by those from the left who so frequently protested their purity of principle, who wilfully ignored the fact that in a democracy a party which seeks power has to persuade people to vote for it.

Repenting at leisure for choosing the wrong leader is something I’ve witnessed twice in the last 35 years.

Which two leaders do you think he's talking about?

[Phony Moderate]

When did Benn and Skinner form a breakaway party?

[Blair]

Jack Straw is in absolutely no position to talk about picking a good leader, or party unity. Despite the rhetoric you could argue that labour was most divided when they were in government-IIRC Straw was one of the people who floated towards Brown after 2003 and handed him the crown in 2007. Then Straw proceeded to slag off Brown for a year before planning his own leadership coup which he then backed out of. At least the likes of Balls and Miliband were loyal to one side

 

[Silent Hunter]

His supports keep making out as if his outreach to Hamas/Ira is some sort of realpolitik but he's just a shameless mouth piece for some pretty awful terrorist actions

That's something the right-wing press will run with. At some point Corbyn will be asked if he would support negotiations with Daesh/ISIS/whatever and if his answer is anything but an unequivocal "No", there will be problems.

Interview with him in The Guardian today; said he's not sure if he'd take the Privy Councillor status if elected.

[Blair]

Well it looks like the People's Flag is no longer palest pink

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/08/jeremy-corbyn-could-bring-back-labours-clause-iv-on-public-ownership