Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

Did anyone mention Corbyn as even a possible candidate (let alone leader) prior to his announcement? The likes of Cameron, Ed, IDS etc were all at least known in political circles as possible/probable contenders. This would be the dark horse victory of all dark horse victories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, he only ran because none of the other possible Left candidates went for it.

[Silent Hunter]

Labour's hope may be in the 'missing millions'. The steep dive in turnout in 2001, which has never been given the proper analysis it deserves and is one of the damning legacies of what Blairism actually made people feel may be a better hope for Labour fortunes than going after the soft vote (which might not actually be nor have ever been that soft) of those that delivered them victory under Blair. Why think the electorate, which includes non voters actually want Burnham or Cooper over say Corbyn? Why make such broad assumptions about where Labour can get the votes to win?

The total turnout in 1997 was 31,286,284, down from 33,614,074 in 1992. In 2015 it was 30,691,680. Those "missing millions" aren't even one million and if the gap between 1997 and 2015 was filled with Labour voters, Labour would still lose the popular vote by 1.5 million votes.

There's no guarantee a 1997 turnout doesn't get Labour an even worse result; the 1983 turnout was about the same and Labour failed to get 9 million votes.

[Phony Moderate]

There is the fact of population growth too. And if those half a million had come from places like Nuneaton and so on then we'd be looking at a different story.

[YL]

The Guardian has endorsed Cooper.

[Phony Moderate]

And the Mirror has endorsed Burnham.

[Phony Moderate]

An 'updated' (presumably to account for the late surge in registration) YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 57% (+4)
Burnham - 20% (-1)
Cooper - 16% (-2)
Kendall - 7% (-1)

[Leftbehind]

Hope this isn't some elaborate ruse from Kellner to energise the Right...

[Phony Moderate]

If he were playing that game he'd have surely put Corbyn on 47 rather than 57.

[Blair]

Coopers speech was actually very good, and was heavy on policy. This is what she should have done 4 weeks ago! She actually showed some backbone and passion for once, and went after the fact that Corbyn has some crazy ideas. Burnham's response has been awful, and as someone who worked for him and met him even I'm having serious doubts about him

[Blair]

Likewise to comrades from London am I the only person who has no idea who to vote for in the deputy or mayoral race?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Likewise to comrades from London am I the only person who has no idea who to vote for in the deputy or mayoral race?

Khan!

[Famous Mortimer]

Likewise to comrades from London am I the only person who has no idea who to vote for in the deputy or mayoral race?

Can someone just give a rundown of the candidates in those races and what they stand for one more time?

[YL]

An 'updated' (presumably to account for the late surge in registration) YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 57% (+4)
Burnham - 20% (-1)
Cooper - 16% (-2)
Kendall - 7% (-1)

This appears to be simply a re-weighting of the previous poll to reflect the revised composition of the electorate following the late sign ups.  In particular, the late sign ups haven't actually been polled.

[Phony Moderate]

On the day the ballot papers go out, this is the main story on BBC News: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33921047

Giving that she is clearly one of the most unpopular members of the PLP amongst Labour members at present...

[Blair]

Even as a party hack the amount of stuff I'm getting send is amazing, had 10 emails yesterday and had letters from Cooper, Burnham, Jowell, Khan, Lammy and Watson.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've started to dread opening my emails for reasons other than the usual.

[Silent Hunter]

Even as a party hack the amount of stuff I'm getting send is amazing, had 10 emails yesterday and had letters from Cooper, Burnham, Jowell, Khan, Lammy and Watson.

Ditto; I had two letters today. Oddly enough Corbyn's not sent me anything through the post, probably because I said I wasn't voting for him in a reply to one of this emails.

Getting a bit sick of this now - and we've still got four weeks to go... until the civil war starts.

[ViaActiva]

This is a really good article that pretty much sums up my view on the race:
https://medium.com/@danielelton/many-blairites-are-infuriating-but-i-m-voting-kendall-2d89bd5950bc

[Phony Moderate]

Here is the Telegraph's...questionable...prediction on a Corbyn Shadow Cabinet:

Chancellor - Michael Meacher
Foreign - Tom Watson
Home - Andy Burnham
Education - Ian Mearns
Chief Whip - Dennis Skinner
Health - Clive Efford
Justice - Kate Osamor
Defence - Gordon Marsden
Communities - John McDonnell
Business - Richard Burgon
Work and Pensions - Diane Abbott
Environment - Dawn Butler
Transport - Rupa Huq
Cabinet Office - Cat Smith
Energy and Climate Change - Jon Trickett

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11796735/Jeremy-Corbyns-shadow-cabinet-who-could-serve.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol @Torygraph.

It is interesting to consider who might drop out of a Corbyn cabinet. It would not be in Corbyn's interest to kick out everybody and replace them with aged Socialist Campaign firebrands and neophytes; but what about the ambitious in the Labour ranks?

Certainly it is hard to see figures like Tristram Hunt, Chuka Ummuna and Gloria De Piero advocating for a Corbynite agenda in a general election. But what about ambitious people like Rachel Reeves and Jarvis, or the other candidates for leader and deputy?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah that's... not what a Corbyn ShadCab would look like. I suspect that he would be inclined to at least try make it a coalition cabinet (from a factional point of view) but with a clear Left majority and likely with most of the Left members being younger ones. Also I presume that the SCG's self-denying ordinance would be repealed. And I wonder whether Cryer would stay as PLP Chairman: Corbyn would likely need him in his ShadCab and under a Corbyn it would probably make sense to have someone from the Right as the official backbenchers shop steward.

[Torie]

Sorry to interrupt, but if Corbyn gets in, and proves to be a "problem" as the next election draws nearer, what are the mechanics for switching him out for someone else? I am under some sort of impression that the procedures are different than picking a new Labour leader after a losing election, where the guy who lost resigns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In terms of formal mechanics... I don't have the new rules in front of me presently, but I believe a new leadership election would be triggered if a candidate secured the backing of a fifth of the PLP. The incumbent would be entitled to seek re-election were that to happen.

[afleitch]

Worth reminding people that tomorrow we find out who gets to lead Scottish Labour until May 2016.