Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It appears Chukka was caught posting on some 1%-er social network asking where in London he could go to avoid "the trash" and whatnot.

Well that's been known for a while. I was looking forward to someone (most likely Burnham, but possibly Cooper or Creagh) pointing that out in an outraged manner during a debate. Oh well.

[Phony Moderate]

When was the last time that a left-wing candidate didn't appear on the ballot in a contested leadership election?

2010 - Abbott and Ed Miliband
1994 - Prescott and possibly Beckett too
1992 - Was Gould a leftie then? I think I heard that he was a moderniser in the 80s but then became something of a Bennite.
1988 - Benn (Kinnock being the right-winger by default)
1983 - Kinnock and Heffer...Shore was also a soft left type was he not?
1980 - Foot, Shore (?), don't know much about Silkin
1976 - Foot and Benn
1963 - Wilson
1961 - Greenwood
1960 - Wilson
1955 - Bevan
1935 - Attlee was on the soft left, right? And Greenwood was leftier?
1922 - MacDonald was a leftie then (lol)

So possibly this will be the first time ever, then.

[Hifly]

I still don't know which woman to put last on my ballot; Probably Kendall, who's gone blairite extraordinaire.

[Andrea]

When was the last time that a left-wing candidate didn't appear on the ballot in a contested leadership election?

2010 - Abbott and Ed Miliband
1994 - Prescott and possibly Beckett too

Beckett got most of the Campaign Group votes in 1994. The MPs who voted for her as leader were

Diane Julie Abbott (Hackney North and Stoke Newington)
John Eric Austin-Walker (Woolwich)
Anthony Louis Banks (Newham North West)
Harold Barnes (North East Derbyshire)
John Dominic Battle (Leeds West)
Margaret Mary Beckett (Derby South)
Roland Boyes (Houghton and Washington)
Nicholas Hugh Brown (Newcastle-upon-Tyne East)
Dennis Andrew Canavan (Falkirk West)
Malcolm George Richardson Chisholm (Edinburgh Leith)
Harry Michael Cohen (Leyton)
Jeremy Bernard Corbyn (Islington North)
Jean Ann Corston (Bristol East)
James Mackay Cousins (Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central)
Angela Eagle (Wallasey)
Derek John Fatchett (Leeds Central)
Maria Fyfe (Glasgow Maryhill)
Neil Francis Gerrard (Walthamstow)
Llinos Golding (Newcastle-under-Lyme)
Mildred Gordon (Bow and Poplar)
Bernard Alexander Montgomery Grant (Tottenham)
Peter Gerald Hain (Neath)
John Heppell (Nottingham East)
Helen Jackson (Sheffield Hillsborough)
Lynne Mary Jones (Birmingham Selly Oak)
Terence Lewis (Worsley)
Kenneth Robert Livingstone (Brent East)
Edward Loyden (Liverpool Garston)
Andrew Stuart Mackinlay (Thurrock)
Maxwell Francis Madden (Bradford West)
Alice Mahon (Halifax)
Dr John Marek (Wrexham)
James Marshall (Leicester South)
William Michie (Sheffield Heeley)
Peter Leslie Pike (Burnley)
Gordon Prentice (Pendle)
Dawn Primarolo (Bristol South)
Kenneth Purchase (Wolverhampton North East)
Barbara Maureen Roche (Hornsey and Wood Green)
Terence Henry Rooney (Bradford North)
Brian Charles John Sedgemore (Hackney South and Shoreditch)
Clare Short (Birmingham Ladywood)
Alan Simpson (Nottingham South)
Dennis Edward Skinner (Bolsover)
Nigel John Spearing (Newham South)
George William Stevenson (Stoke-on-Trent South)
Simon Patrick Tipping (Sherwood)
Audrey Wise (Preston)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cry me a river; I cried, a river over you.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eagle is in the Deputy race.

[Hifly]

Now I know who to put last for Deputy.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Eagle is in the Deputy race.

Angela Eagle, to be clear.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eagle is in the Deputy race.

Angela Eagle, to be clear.

Are you sure?

[Andrea]

First Cooper's declared backers:
Stephen Pound, Kevan Jones, Chris Bryant, Kate Green, John Healey, Spellar, Vernon Coaker, Seema Malhotra, Paula Sherriff, Jess Phillips, Khalid Mahmood, Sharon Hodgson, Helen Goodman, David Hanson and Shabana Mahmood


Jarvis backs Burnham

[YL]

Cry me a river; I cried, a river over you.

If I do bother to become a "registered supporter" so I can get a vote in this, I'll be careful not to vote for anyone Patrick Wintour describes as a "moderniser".

[Phony Moderate]

Hunt is not running and is supporting Kendall.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it looks as if (in nominations terms) there's only room for one of them.

Oh and Danczuk is not running for Deputy.

[Oakvale]

Yes, it looks as if (in nominations terms) there's only room for one of them.

Oh and Danczuk is not running for Deputy.

Looks like my crucial endorsement will go to Tom Watson then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2010 - Abbott and Ed Miliband

Miliband wasn't really seen as a candidate of the Left at the time so much as a candidate of the centre who was reaching out in their direction. Which of course is the key thing here: as factions have become less rigid (Neil Kinnock's greatest gift to the Labour Party, perhaps), crossfactional candidates have become more common in leadership elections.

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Both of them were.

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Mostly Gould was a weirdo.

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The Right backed Kinnock but he was never one of theirs.

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Shore's candidacy was the (distressingly feeble) last stand of the old Bevan/Wilson Left, although some of his support actually came from the workerist Right.

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Silkin was soft Left.

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1935 is long ago and far away in terms of Labour factionalism, but Attlee was effectively factionless (and that's why he won). His predecessor George Lansbury (1932-5) was the most left-wing leader Labour has ever had o/c. Greenwood was generally seen as a puppet of Ernest Bevin's.

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He wasn't, but he was still thought of as being one. Which is why he won.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amazing: http://lizforleader.co.uk/

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

They all seem rather awful.

[Phony Moderate]

You know, on balance, the deputy line-up is probably more impressive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

John Prescott has endorsed Burnham.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I had a dream last night where Burnham won, and in his speech at his first conference said (paraphrased) "Margaret Thatcher is my idol, and the bravest, best politician in British history..."

It didn't go down well

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rushanara Ali to run for Deputy. That means six candidates already. Will they all get on the ballot?

[ChrisDR68]

So if it's just Cooper, Kendall and Burnham on the ballot paper due to others failing to get the 35 nominations from their fellow MP's (which seems likely) here's my analysis of them:

Yvette Cooper - quite telegenic but sounds angry and preachy a lot of the time. If she wins she'd need to sound more positive and optimistic in her tone. I think her ceiling for Labour in 2020 is around 260 seats.

Liz Kendall - a bold communicator but viewed very suspiciously within the Labour Party due to her "moderniser" tag. Her ceiling is likely to be about 270 seats in 2020.

Andy Burnham - likely to be popular with people who already vote Labour but with very limited appeal with people the party needs to win over. Can be quite negative and tetchy when talking about policy on tv. Like Cooper he needs to be more positive with his communication. I think the best he could do in 2020 is around 250 seats.

All in all none of them are PM material with Kendall likely to have the widest appeal among people who didn't vote Labour in either 2010 or 2015.

[Phony Moderate]

Really, their 'ceilings' depend more on what the Tories do over the next five years than what they do. No Labour leader could have won a landslide in 1997 if Tory credibility on the economy hadn't been destroyed by Black Wednesday and they hadn't decided to have a factional war over Europe, as well as the sleaze stuff. Similarly, Brown could have hung on in 2010 without his various mishaps, the expenses' scandal, 10p tax fiasco, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And we have another candidate for Deputy: popular backbencher and NEC member John Healey.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

All in all none of them are PM material with Kendall likely to have the widest appeal among people who didn't vote Labour in either 2010 or 2015.

Is 'being PM material' (and having 'ceilings'), in this sense, really that relevant a concept in the United Kingdom? Serious question.