Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I saw in the newstatesman a piece claiming Scotland's lost and Labour should merge with LibDem in England-Wales, how likely would a new leader from the party's right espouse this? especially if Farron leads the LD

Somewhat lower than 0% probably.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Updated versions of the nominations maps can be found on the first page of the thread.

[ChrisDR68]

Many will recall that Blair took over the party by arguing that it needed to get with the times. Now his creatures want to take the party back a least a decade.

A decade would take us back to 2005... when Labour won a 66 seat majority instead of now with the party 100 seats adrift of the Conservatives.

[Silent Hunter]

Many will recall that Blair took over the party by arguing that it needed to get with the times. Now his creatures want to take the party back a least a decade.

A decade would take us back to 2005... when Labour won a 66 seat majority instead of now with the party 100 seats adrift of the Conservatives.

Exactly. Labour is where it is because of the 2nd biggest recession of the last 100 years; not something you recover from overnight. Remember it took the GOP 20 years to get back into power after the Great Depression.

[Oakvale]

I've always thought it was strange that Labour won a majority in 2005 and then Blair somehow caused them to lose elections years after he'd left office.

[Phony Moderate]

It was also down to the leadership's failure to point out the Tories' blatant hypocrisy - they had been backing Labour's spending plans for years prior to the crash and he even criticised them for being too tough on the banks.

[Phony Moderate]

I've always thought it was strange that Labour won a majority in 2005 and then Blair somehow caused them to lose elections years after he'd left office.

His tenure alienated many traditional Labour voters in marginal (and largely working-class) seats, many of whom voted UKIP last month or abstained, and also abstained in 10/05/01.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

oakvale's observation could also be made about George W. Bush, and most people other than a very specific type of hack would roundly decry it as missing the point.

[Phony Moderate]

Of course it didn't matter so much in '05 due to the uselessness of the Tories, but once the Tories became semi-competent in opposition and the recession etc hit it gave their own alienated voters reason to vote in 2010; Labour 'only' lost 800,000 votes between 05 and 10 btw (less than they lost between 01 and 05), whereas the Tories gained about 2 million.

[ChrisDR68]

I've always thought it was strange that Labour won a majority in 2005 and then Blair somehow caused them to lose elections years after he'd left office.

His tenure alienated many traditional Labour voters in marginal (and largely working-class) seats, many of whom voted UKIP last month or abstained, and also abstained in 10/05/01.

Surely Ed Miliband was the "left" leadership candidate in 2010 so his leadership of the Labour Party should in theory have won those alienated working class voters back to the fold.

Or am I missing something?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That he was the Left candidate was not really what people thought at the time, even if most of the Soft Left backed him. This contest feels much more ideological than the 2010 one.

Anyway, this is one of those arguments in which everyone involved is partly right and mostly wrong: elements of the legacy of the Blair government turned pretty toxic over time (because of the approach that government took towards the political process as much as anything else) and are still hurting, but turning sharply leftwards in all respects is most unlikely to be the answer. What I find personally depressing about the 'Blairite' Right is that, much like the Hard Left, they mostly seem concerned with fighting yesterdays battles, which is certainly not something that Mr Tony could have been accused of c. 1995...

[You kip if you want to...]

That he was the Left candidate was not really what people thought at the time, even if most of the Soft Left backed him. This contest feels much more ideological than the 2010 one.

Anyway, this is one of those arguments in which everyone involved is partly right and mostly wrong: elements of the legacy of the Blair government turned pretty toxic over time (because of the approach that government took towards the political process as much as anything else) and are still hurting, but turning sharply leftwards in all respects is most unlikely to be the answer. What I find personally depressing about the 'Blairite' Right is that, much like the Hard Left, they mostly seem concerned with fighting yesterdays battles, which is certainly not something that Mr Tony could have been accused of c. 1995...

There'll be voters in 2020 who won't have even been born in 1997, never mind 1983. The whole old/new Labour thing just makes us look soooo outdated.

I wouldn't mind a candidate from the Right or the old Left, as long as they weren't covering themselves in the language of 20-30 years ago.

[ChrisDR68]

Anyway, this is one of those arguments in which everyone involved is partly right and mostly wrong: elements of the legacy of the Blair government turned pretty toxic over time (because of the approach that government took towards the political process as much as anything else) and are still hurting, but turning sharply leftwards in all respects is most unlikely to be the answer.

Can you elaborate on the highlighted bit?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mary Creagh has withdrawn her candidacy.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why was she running in the first place?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd tell you that if I knew.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I guess she was trying to raise her profile? Not that it worked because now she'll be known as "the one that completely failed to make a niche and backed out humiliated", but worth a try.

[YL]

Many will recall that Blair took over the party by arguing that it needed to get with the times. Now his creatures want to take the party back a least a decade.

A decade would take us back to 2005... when Labour won a 66 seat majority instead of now with the party 100 seats adrift of the Conservatives.

Labour lost a lot of votes between 2001 and 2005, and were really quite lucky that a poor choice (actually two poor choices...) of Tory leader and a favourable vote distribution (remember, the Tories beat them in the popular vote in England but Labour won a majority of English seats) gave them such a big majority.

I personally have a very low opinion of Tony Blair (and never liked him, even back in the 1990s) but obviously he was an electoral asset in 1997 and 2001 (though Labour would probably have won both elections anyway, just with smaller majorities).  That he was in 2005 seems much more doubtful.

[Phony Moderate]

It's not an entirely meaningful statistic, but it pleases me that Blair in 2001 and 2005 and Cameron in 2010 and 2015 won a lower total popular vote than Callaghan in 1979.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nominations by region. Errors quite likely as this is a 'hah! I am tired!' thing... oh and note that in Labour Party terms Cumbria is grouped with the North East rather than the North West...

North: Burnham 12, Cooper 8, Kendall 5, Corbyn 3, Yet To Nominate 1
North West: Burnham 24, Kendall 8, Cooper 5, Corbyn 3, YTN 8
Yorkshire & The Humber: Cooper 9, Burnham 9, Kendall 3, Corbyn 2, YTN 10
West Midlands: Cooper 15, Kendall 4, Burnham 3, YTN 3
East Midlands: Cooper 4, Kendall 3, Burnham 2, Corbyn 1, YTN 4
Eastern: Corbyn 2, Cooper 1, Kendall 1
London: Cooper 10, Kendall 9, Corbyn 7, Burnham 3, YTN 16
South East: Kendall 2, Burnham 1, YTN 1
South West: Burnham 1, Cooper 1, YTN 2
Wales: Burnham 11, Kendall 5, Cooper 4, YTN 6
Scotland: YTN 1

North: Watson 11, Flint 6, Ali 2, Creasy 2, Eagle 2, YTN 5
North West: Watson 9, Eagle 8, Flint 6, Creasy 5, Ali 2, Bradshaw 1, YTN 17
Yorkshire & The Humber: Watson 6, Flint 5, Creasy 2, Bradshaw 2, Eagle 1, YTN 17
West Midlands: Watson 19, Flint 3, Ali 1, YTN 2
East Midlands: Watson 4, Ali 1, Creasy 1, Eagle 1, Flint 1, YTN 6
Eastern: Eagle 1, Watson 1, YTN 2
London: Ali 9, Flint 7, Bradshaw 6, Creasy 6, Watson 4, Eagle 3, YTN 11
South East: Bradshaw 1, Creasy 1, Flint 1, YTN 1
South West: Bradshaw 3, Creasy 1
Wales: Flint 7, Bradshaw 4, Watson 3, Creasy 2, Eagle 2, YTN 6
Scotland: YTN 1

[Silent Hunter]

It's not an entirely meaningful statistic, but it pleases me that Blair in 2001 and 2005 and Cameron in 2010 and 2015 won a lower total popular vote than Callaghan in 1979.

That's because turnout has dropped so much in recent years.

[Phony Moderate]

It's not an entirely meaningful statistic, but it pleases me that Blair in 2001 and 2005 and Cameron in 2010 and 2015 won a lower total popular vote than Callaghan in 1979.

That's because turnout has dropped so much in recent years.

Hence the first bit. Also can be explained by a larger non-Lab/Con vote.

[Phony Moderate]

Nominations close at the top of the hour. Corbyn currently on 30 having been nominated by a number of big names.

[Phony Moderate]

Nominations closed. Several MPs apparently rushed in to nominate Corbyn in the last few minutes. Uncertain as to whether he has made it.

[Phony Moderate]

The Morning Star's Luke James (who seemed to be closest to the action) says on Twitter that he's made it.