Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Creasy is actually very strongly Right aligned.

[Hifly]

Watson is the favourite of the Old Labour Right (Labour First).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. He's a walking West Midlands Right cliché actually.

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: This election is going to be just one vote of all members with IRV? There's not going to be a run-off with just the MPs voting?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its members plus 'registered supporters' and is IRV yeah. The PLPs vote was removed by Miliband. I get the impression that, no matter what happens, there will be pressure from the PLP to have it restored in some form.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yeah, I was under the impression MPs had the final say. That's why I expected Burnham would still win no matter what.

There really is a chance Corbyn could win though. It's not totally hypothetical playtime stuff.

[Silent Hunter]

Only his very left-wing views and rampant dislike of the US. Not likely, I admit but more likely than the other candidates.

Consider my statement withdrawn. Sorry for jumping to conclusions.

[MalaspinaGold]

Now heading into self-parody territory

Hoping for Poale Zion endorsement?

Honestly, with this field, Poale Zion would likely endorse Corbyn. At least the left bloc would.

Speaking of which, I read the haaretz synopsis of this, and Corbyn was... surprisingly reasonable. I was expecting more of a fire and brimstone, Gallowayesque approach.

Other question: why is Corbyn single-handedly destroying this field without even trying, while Abbott just fizzled out last time around? Is he just a better candidate?

[Phony Moderate]

Abbott probably has more personal charisma than Corbyn but she lacks credibility. Sent her kid to private school, various racial comment gaffes, poor when she is challenged in interviews. Even Dennis Skinner didn't vote her (David Miliband, believe it or not). Incidentally the YouGov internals (yeah yeah) show Corbyn winning about one in five D Miliband 2010 voters.

Kind of a shame that Dennis Skinner isn't twenty years younger, actually. Imagine him at the dispatch box.

[Leftbehind]

Now heading into self-parody territory

Hoping for Poale Zion endorsement?

Honestly, with this field, Poale Zion would likely endorse Corbyn. At least the left bloc would.

Speaking of which, I read the haaretz synopsis of this, and Corbyn was... surprisingly reasonable. I was expecting more of a fire and brimstone, Gallowayesque approach.

Other question: why is Corbyn single-handedly destroying this field without even trying, while Abbott just fizzled out last time around? Is he just a better candidate?

I trust Abbott to vote earnestly & left-wing, but I don't trust her to persuade anyone to follow her. A bit too waffley and philosophical (Corbyn can sometimes get like this, but thankfully not as much recently).

Creasy is actually very strongly Right aligned.

Thanks for the correction, I think I was simply going off left-wingers (who I now presume to be inordinately concerned with identity politics) predicting her to be the next best thing - I can now understand why I didn't see why.

Watson is the favourite of the Old Labour Right (Labour First).

I should've really said Old Labour and not Old Left, because I didn't mean to suggest he's left-wing. But there's no denying a lot on the left find common cause with him (his resignation probably helped matters on that front too).

Yeah, I was under the impression MPs had the final say. That's why I expected Burnham would still win no matter what.

There really is a chance Corbyn could win though. It's not totally hypothetical playtime stuff.

Actually one of the great things about OMOV. I must admit however, I was dead set against its enactment since I predicted that MPs would screen out any left-wing candidate (and they probably will from now on, which makes it all the more important he wins now and if nothing else enact further democracy in the party).

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33625612

In summary: "I hate a large proportion of the membership and I hate democracy on general!" The female Labour ex-Leftists do tend to be among the most obxious people in the party. Beckett, Harman, Hewitt, Hodge.

Needless to say, it has begun.

[Leftbehind]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33625612

In summary: "I hate a large proportion of the membership and I hate democracy on general!" The female Labour ex-Leftists do tend to be among the most obxious people in the party. Beckett, Harman, Hewitt, Hodge.

Needless to say, it has begun.

Ex-adviser to Tony Blair John McTernan had said MPs who "lent" their nominations to Mr Corbyn to "broaden the debate" were "morons".

Recently brought on to work for Jim Murphy for his 2015 election campaign.  Clearly the man knows success.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Corbyn is doing well - and whatever happens from this point that is a certainty bar a withdrawal - because the atmosphere amongst members seems to be such that (as said already) if you painted a dustbin red and nominated it as the Left candidate then said dustbin would be doing well. This is a statement of fact and not hyperbole. There is frustration at the election result and at the government,* and also a lot of annoyance at a) the general tone of debate from senior figures in the months after the election and b) at the rhetoric and positioning of the caretaker Leadership/ShadCab. I'd kind of picked up some of that (and even share some), but not the extent or depth of it. It helps that Corbyn (who isn't well known outside his constituency and the political bubble: actually that's a really important detail) has not been running as a far-left gadfly, which means that he has been able to attract support from the soft Left. And, of course, there's *always* a hard Left core within the membership that can sometimes suddenly expand (and is also prone to sudden contraction). No idea really what's going to happen now, but I do wish that someone (anyone) without Corbyn's considerable baggage had ended up as the Left candidate instead.

_{*Which is a common thing, particularly after a second defeat: the Tories elected IDS as leader after the 2001 landslide don't forget.}

[politicus]

What are the main wings/factions in Labour? How relevant is the Old Labour/New Labour distinction now?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the main wings/factions in Labour? How relevant is the Old Labour/New Labour distinction now?

Factions aren't the semi-formalised things they used to be - organisations still exist (e.g. the Campaign for Labour Party Democracy and Labour First are both still going, and now we have Progress as well, hah) but they don't have the influence they used to and mostly just function to get people elected to the NEC - but you have a basic division between Left and Right, both of which are in turn subdivided but not in the same way. The Left is conventionally divided between the Hard Left and the Soft Left, with the Hard Left label denoting the remaining Bennites, old school Commanding Heights types, and points left. The Soft Left label is a bit more fuzzy, but think of the sort of person who voted for Ed Miliband on the first ballot last time and who thinks that Neil Kinnock was one of Labour's best leaders and you're about there. The Soft Left (which more than any of these labels denotes a tendency rather than a faction: notably there is no organisation promoting their stance) typically decides who triumphs in internal elections as neither the Hard Left nor the Right have the numbers on their own. The division of the Right is in some respects cultural: usually people think of the traditional (or 'Old') Right on the one hand and the people who are referred to variously (and according to taste) as 'Blairites', 'Modernisers', etc. on the other. The trouble is that these are loose labels and don't always apply well to the PLP (where do we place the technocratic bloc that grew up around Gordon Brown?), but they have their uses wrt the membership.

[Silent Hunter]

Actually one of the great things about OMOV. I must admit however, I was dead set against its enactment since I predicted that MPs would screen out any left-wing candidate (and they probably will from now on, which makes it all the more important he wins now and if nothing else enact further democracy in the party).

This isn't OMOV though. It's One Person Who Wants To Pay £3, One Vote. I spend more than £3 on my lunch on a daily basis.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, but a lot of the support for Corbyn is clearly coming from longstanding members and (again) the Hard Left tends to expand when things look better for it.

[Phony Moderate]

Talking of Brown, when are the Right going to wheel him out? He's a far more liked figure in the party the Blair and is capable of a very impressive and convincing speech on his day (Citizens UK in 2010 and the "Vote No" one last year). In fact the Citizens UK one contains a lot of stuff that Corbyn is campaigning on now. http://youtu.be/6BA2Jz7xIXw

[Blair]

Talking of Brown, when are the Right going to wheel him out? He's a far more liked figure in the party the Blair and is capable of a very impressive and convincing speech on his day (Citizens UK in 2010 and the "Vote No" one last year). In fact the Citizens UK one contains a lot of stuff that Corbyn is campaigning on now. http://youtu.be/6BA2Jz7xIXw

I've seen him floated as a 'centre left' figure who could stop Corbyn. Problem is that all the well know Labour ministers are 'hated Blairites' apart from Alan Johnson. 

[Phony Moderate]

Talking of Brown, when are the Right going to wheel him out? He's a far more liked figure in the party the Blair and is capable of a very impressive and convincing speech on his day (Citizens UK in 2010 and the "Vote No" one last year). In fact the Citizens UK one contains a lot of stuff that Corbyn is campaigning on now. http://youtu.be/6BA2Jz7xIXw

I've seen him floated as a 'centre left' figure who could stop Corbyn. Problem is that all the well know Labour ministers are 'hated Blairites' apart from Alan Johnson. 

I was talking of the possibility of him intervening; him actually getting back into the ring would be a disaster.

[Zinneke]

There is also Blue Labour, who had Ummuna as the most prominent candidate. Not sure who they would vote for now (probably Burnham as they are decentralisers).

[Simfan34]

There is also Blue Labour, who had Ummuna as the most prominent candidate. Not sure who they would vote for now (probably Burnham as they are decentralisers).

Not Kendall? Chuka himself is backing her.

[Phony Moderate]

In terms of Labour leaders and their factions, would the following
be accurate?

Miliband - Technocratic/Brownite
Brown - Right/Moderniser but more 'traditional' use of language and policy emphasis
Blair - Right/Moderniser
Smith - Traditional Right
Kinnock - Soft Left
Foot - Left ('Hard Left' doesn't quite seem to fit)
Callaghan - Traditional Right
Wilson - Soft Left/Bevanite
Gaitskell - Traditional Right

The Soft Left is the only major faction not represented in the field of leadership candidates. Such a candidate would surely be heading for a big victory right now.

[Famous Mortimer]

The traditional right has become the soft loft, relatively speaking.

[ChrisDR68]

Interesting article about the electorate in this election:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/just-who-are-these-labour-party-members-who-will-be-choosing-the-new-leader-10409109.html

This is the most interesting bit:

8 Labour Party members are really pretty left wing

When we asked grassroots members to place themselves on a left-right spectrum running from zero (“very left wing”) to ten (“very right wing”), the average score was 2.39 – interestingly, slightly to the left of the average SNP member and only just to the right of the average member of the Greens; Lib Dem members placed themselves considerably closer towards the centre. On specific issues, just over 90% of Labour members think cuts to public spending have gone too far. About the same proportion want to see government redistributing income from the better-off to the less well-off. Just over 80% think that management will always try to get the better of employees if it gets the chance. So, although only two out of our 1200 Labour Party members wrote down Jeremy Corbyn’s name when we asked them to tell us who should replace Ed Miliband, no-one should be too surprised if he attracts more support than some in the Party hoped would be the case.