Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/23/just-one-in-20-corbyn-supporters-tell-yougov-lab-poll-that-the-chances-of-him-winning-ge20-was-a-key-factor/

Very interesting chart. It suggests that it will be difficult for the others to chip away at the 43% (if Corbyn is indeed doing that well). In fact at this point Corbyn probably has more potential for gains from the others than they do from him.

[Leftbehind]

8. Labour Party members are really pretty left wing

Fair enough if he's using how they self-identify, but those policy statements overwhelmingly agreed to would attract even moderate social democrats.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/23/just-one-in-20-corbyn-supporters-tell-yougov-lab-poll-that-the-chances-of-him-winning-ge20-was-a-key-factor/

Very interesting chart. It suggests that it will be difficult for the others to chip away at the 43% (if Corbyn is indeed doing that well). In fact at this point Corbyn probably has more potential for gains from the others than they do from him.

I'm hoping for some more polls to confirm such a lead, particularly in view of the welfare vote.

[Phony Moderate]

Also - Corbyn, Paxman, Clarkson and Kyle...what is it with British Jeremies and being controversial?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Miliband - Technocratic/Brownite
Brown - Right/Moderniser but more 'traditional' use of language and policy emphasis
Blair - Right/Moderniser
Smith - Traditional Right
Kinnock - Soft Left

This is about right, yes.

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Again, basically right. But the reason why it gets more complicated before Kinnock is because things were different then: the modern Soft Left is a creation of the conflicts of the 1980s and a lot of factional groupings and language is frozen in that decade. Foot is best seen as representing a different generation of Left entirely to that which was dominant at the time (one reason why he struggled so much as leader with respect to internal disputes was because of that; the Right were his old enemies, but the ascendant Left were people of a very different mentality to him).

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Even a more moderate Hard Lefty would.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would caution, though, about reading too much into supplementary questions from that poll. Some were clearly designed in such a way as to create malicious headlines.

[SPQR]

Corbyn?
Are you serious?
The situation is even worse than where I left it a month ago...

[Leftbehind]

Corbyn?
Are you serious?
The situation is even worse than where I left it a month ago...

Could be a lot worse - we could have Renzi.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and John Mann literally brings paedogeddon into this.

[afleitch]

...and John Mann literally brings paedogeddon into this.

Scottish Labour must be advising the main party PR machine these days.

[Phony Moderate]

...and John Mann literally brings paedogeddon into this.

Scottish Labour must be advising the main party PR machine these days.

John Mann is his own Mann.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bassetlaw CLP has an oddly consistent habit of selecting somewhat unorthodox right-wingers, although as most of its Labour MPs have been long-serving maybe that's just a funny coincidence. Mann is the successor to the... er... colourful Joe Ashton who replaced Frederick Bellenger, who may well have been the most right-wing MP in the post-war history of the Labour Party, though he was eventually deselected (and then promptly died). And it's first ever Labour MP was Malcolm MacDonald (son of Ramsay MacDonald) who defected with his father in the 1931 crisis: Bellenger defeated him in 1935.

[joevsimp]

The traditional right has become the soft loft, relatively speaking.

I would expect Compass will be fairly evenly split between Burnham and Corbyn (60/40?) but are they (semi)-officially  backing anyone?

[Leftbehind]

Quite a supportive tone in today's LabourList article by Eagle for Corbyn (well, what currently stands for support). I wonder if Watson distances himself from Corbyn (I don't believe he will, but still) that she'd be in the running for deputy.

[SPQR]

Corbyn?
Are you serious?
The situation is even worse than where I left it a month ago...

Could be a lot worse - we could have Renzi.

Huh,enjoy being irrelevant for the next 10 years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eagle is the most left-wing candidate running for Deputy, don't forget.

Anyway, some interesting developments wrt nominations: Cooper suddenly doing a lot better amongst other things. Updated maps will be around when I'm back from work.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and updated. Some errors corrected as well, although there could well be others.

[Silent Hunter]

Also - Corbyn, Paxman, Clarkson and Kyle...what is it with British Jeremies and being controversial?

Don't forget Hunt, but not probably not Beadle.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is this I don't even

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Heh, the guy who threatened to smother me with a pillow is back.

[Leftbehind]

Heh, the guy who threatened to smother me with a pillow is back.

'Threatened'. Had to Google it because I forgot a quip I made over two years ago. Stay bonkers, Sanchez.

[Phony Moderate]

Kendall, I'm almost convinced by now, is a closet hard leftie running a satirical Blairite campaign.

[Phony Moderate]

Talk now of Harman being urged to call off the election. Good Lord.

[Silent Hunter]

I definitely think the "affiliated supporter" idea was a stupid one; it's going to lead to entryism no matter how good your checks.

[Cassius]

Talk now of Harman being urged to call off the election. Good Lord.

[Leftbehind]

I definitely think the "affiliated supporter" idea was a stupid one; it's going to lead to entryism no matter how good your checks.

Perhaps, but I've no doubt that this wouldn't have been an issue if Corbyn hadn't have been in the running. Let's not forget, that in the YouGov poll, the pre-2015 Labour members had Corbyn on 49.2% to Burnham's 50.8%. So all this talk of entryism & "longstanding members in danger of getting trumped" really does begin to sound like sour grapes from people who can't bare the thought that Labour members might elect a socialist.

At least he's moved on from attempting to slur Corbyn as overseeing child abuse.