Labour Party leadership election 2015
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Author Topic: Labour Party leadership election 2015  (Read 138737 times)
Blair
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« Reply #750 on: August 11, 2015, 03:15:26 AM »

Well 2015 been's the first election year I've actually followed (General Elections are the only ones that count IMO) and it's going to be pretty crap if we have Labour getting crushed at the may election losing their Shadow Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, and then going on to elect someone who is going to be the worse leader since well ever. 
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Hnv1
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« Reply #751 on: August 11, 2015, 04:23:37 AM »

New YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 53%
Burnham - 21%
Cooper - 18%
Kendall - 8%
I would say it's time for a Blair-Brown pact between Burnham and Cooper but both are so mediocre and lack some sort of vision
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Blair
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« Reply #752 on: August 11, 2015, 04:53:28 AM »

New YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 53%
Burnham - 21%
Cooper - 18%
Kendall - 8%
I would say it's time for a Blair-Brown pact between Burnham and Cooper but both are so mediocre and lack some sort of vision

Even with a blair brown pact between all three it's still going to end up with Corbyn winning, he needs to get about 35-38% in the first round in order for the other candidates to have a chance
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afleitch
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« Reply #753 on: August 11, 2015, 05:35:21 AM »

The poll also shows that Corbyn ' strength is uniform across the membership. It's not built apron the 'ten bob' members that have recently joined.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #754 on: August 11, 2015, 06:22:36 AM »

Well 2015 been's the first election year I've actually followed (General Elections are the only ones that count IMO) and it's going to be pretty crap if we have Labour getting crushed at the may election losing their Shadow Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, and then going on to elect someone who is going to be the worse leader since well ever. 

Tony Blair resigns and is replaced by:

Gordon Brown who is more to the left of Blair... who goes on to lose... who is then replaced by:

Ed Miliband who is more to the left of Brown... who goes on to lose... who is then replaced by:

Jeremy Corbyn who is more to the left of Miliband... who goes on to...

You can guess the rest I think Wink

Obviously Brown was only very moderately more to the left of Blair but he was a more traditional tax and spend Labour right winger than "Third Way" Blair ever was.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #755 on: August 11, 2015, 07:20:40 AM »

I'm still sceptical about polling for this contest, but that would have to be quite badly wrong for Corbyn not to be in the lead.

^^^

And even if they have fycked up terribly (not impossible) he must be doing bloody well all the same.

Though I will note (because someone has to) that it's only a few months ago that everyone swore that they would never uncritically believe polls again. Its interesting that we (collectively: political obsessives) can't wean ourselves off doing so.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #756 on: August 11, 2015, 07:23:03 AM »

Corbyn has as good as said that while he knows he's doing tres well he doesn't believe the poll and doesn't want his supporters to. lmao.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #757 on: August 11, 2015, 07:25:47 AM »

Crossposted from a certain British elections forum:

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Blair
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« Reply #758 on: August 11, 2015, 08:28:22 AM »

The interesting thing is that even if Corbyn survives until 2020 and loses I'm sure his supporters will still claim that he was stitched up, and that we need to go further to the left.

I completely lost hope after reading this yesterday because it's so true. Burnham=Muskie, Humphrey=Cooper, Kendall-Jackson.

Who's our Jimmy Carter?

https://medium.com/@davidbutler100/jeremy-corbyn-labour-s-george-mcgovern-60b52a98bbfc
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jaichind
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« Reply #759 on: August 11, 2015, 08:36:54 AM »

Well 2015 been's the first election year I've actually followed (General Elections are the only ones that count IMO) and it's going to be pretty crap if we have Labour getting crushed at the may election losing their Shadow Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, and then going on to elect someone who is going to be the worse leader since well ever. 

Tony Blair resigns and is replaced by:

Gordon Brown who is more to the left of Blair... who goes on to lose... who is then replaced by:

Ed Miliband who is more to the left of Brown... who goes on to lose... who is then replaced by:

Jeremy Corbyn who is more to the left of Miliband... who goes on to...

You can guess the rest I think Wink

Obviously Brown was only very moderately more to the left of Blair but he was a more traditional tax and spend Labour right winger than "Third Way" Blair ever was.

I would only quibble with the Blair->Brown part.  I think even if Blair led LAB in 2010 LAB would still have lost, mostly likely by greater margins.  The internal civil war inside LAB if Blair stayed on would have guaranteed defeat no matter what.  Not that Brown taking over stopped Blairites and Brownites from snipping at each other. 
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CrabCake
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« Reply #760 on: August 11, 2015, 08:43:43 AM »

Perhaps it's fair to say Blair was less (ugh, this word) "statist" than Brown.

I seriously hope that the party does not revisit the single most tedious matter the Labour Party has ever concerned itself with - Clause IV. What a useless endevour, the public by and large do not two craps about the arcane details of a political party's constitution.
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136or142
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« Reply #761 on: August 11, 2015, 08:49:25 AM »

Which is more frightening:
1.The Labour Party electing Jeremy Corbyn leader
2.Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #762 on: August 11, 2015, 09:25:05 AM »

I seriously hope that the party does not revisit the single most tedious matter the Labour Party has ever concerned itself with - Clause IV. What a useless endevour, the public by and large do not two craps about the arcane details of a political party's constitution.

The trouble with arch factionalists on both sides is that they really do care more about that sort of thing than the stuff that matters.
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Zanas
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« Reply #763 on: August 11, 2015, 09:43:58 AM »


The press report was that he left his wife because she wanted to send their kids to a grammar school, which is a state ran school that's often only open to higher ability students. For some reason our political class obsess about where our MP's send their kids
Just to finish on this topic, I hope the most reasonable among you are able to picture that the matter was probably a little more complicated than what the press likes to report. Conjugal feuds tend to drag on for a while, and to affect a number of varied topics in a couple's life. Even if there's one tipping point, there probably was a bit of a stacked pile of resentment before it came to that.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #764 on: August 11, 2015, 09:48:47 AM »
« Edited: August 11, 2015, 09:52:34 AM by Simfan34 »

Can Corbyn really bring back Scottish votes or is SNP talk of a lack of a "true left wing alternative" just populist nonsense?

This suggests so.
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Blair
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« Reply #765 on: August 11, 2015, 09:56:41 AM »

Can Corbyn really bring back Scottish votes or is SNP talk of a lack of a "true left wing alternative" just populist nonsense?

It's more of a middle finger to the establishment-I know many scots who saw the referendum as the English conning the scots, claiming that 'operation fear' was used to scare people into voting No. Likewise Scottish Labour has had something like 6 leaders since 2008, and it's been pretty useless.  Combined with the toxic parts of New Labour it's allowed the SNP to surge-they actually won the 2007 elections despite being much more right wing. The SNP use to be know as tartan tories, which is one of the funny aspects of british politics.

It seems lazy to think that labour becoming left wing will win back scotland because there's so many factors. Also the SNP only got 50% of the vote in scotland-FPTP just titled it awfully to give them 58 seats

Corbyn would probably do better in scotland in getting back former labour voters, but even if we got the 58 SNP seats we'd still be 50 off a majority
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politicus
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« Reply #766 on: August 11, 2015, 10:12:47 AM »
« Edited: August 11, 2015, 10:52:27 AM by politicus »

Can Corbyn really bring back Scottish votes or is SNP talk of a lack of a "true left wing alternative" just populist nonsense?

It's more of a middle finger to the establishment-I know many scots who saw the referendum as the English conning the scots, claiming that 'operation fear' was used to scare people into voting No. Likewise Scottish Labour has had something like 6 leaders since 2008, and it's been pretty useless.  Combined with the toxic parts of New Labour it's allowed the SNP to surge-they actually won the 2007 elections despite being much more right wing. The SNP used to be known as tartan tories, which is one of the funny aspects of british politics.

It seems lazy to think that labour becoming left wing will win back scotland because there's so many factors. Also the SNP only got 50% of the vote in scotland-FPTP just titled it awfully to give them 58 seats

Corbyn would probably do better in scotland in getting back former labour voters, but even if we got the 58 SNP seats we'd still be 50 off a majority

56.

Nowadays Tartan Tories seems mostly to be used about SNP in the NE. Not in general. 1979 is a long time ago.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #767 on: August 11, 2015, 10:16:35 AM »

The situation in Scotland is a bit more... complex... than that, unfortunately.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #768 on: August 11, 2015, 11:35:29 AM »


Harold Wilson and he died in 1995.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #769 on: August 11, 2015, 11:57:25 AM »


Surely that's a bit uncharitable to Wilson?
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Cassius
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« Reply #770 on: August 11, 2015, 11:58:52 AM »


If anything it's a bit uncharitable to Carter.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #771 on: August 11, 2015, 12:19:51 PM »

Harold Wilson was a successful Prime Minister (never a popular one but the two things are quite different) who's post political career was limited due to Alzheimer's. Jimmy Carter was an unsuccessful President who has had a very successful post Presidential career. Quite different.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #772 on: August 11, 2015, 12:31:51 PM »

They both won elections; which is far cry from five of the six Labour leaders after Wilson.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #773 on: August 11, 2015, 12:42:25 PM »

Clive Lewis will be the next Labour Prime Minister. There.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #774 on: August 11, 2015, 01:48:24 PM »


Carter didn't have the excuse of being continuously undermined by the intelligence services.
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