Labour Party leadership election 2015
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:40:41 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Labour Party leadership election 2015
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 36 37 38 39 40 [41] 42 43 44 45 46 ... 58
Author Topic: Labour Party leadership election 2015  (Read 138736 times)
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1000 on: August 28, 2015, 05:23:02 AM »

Word (well, rumour) is that a majority has yet to cast a vote and that about a third is still undecided; this has led to some Labour insiders not being as convinced about a Corbyn victory as they were a week or so ago. Burnham's camp is putting out data suggesting that a plurality of the undecideds are leaning towards him.

Yeah the data I've seen shows that Corbyn will probably win on the first round but only with about 35%, meaning that Burnham has a good chance of coming back. Funnily enough we looked and 1 out of 16 Kendall voters have put Corbyn as there 2... make of that what you will haha
Logged
Hifly
hifly15
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1001 on: August 28, 2015, 05:25:57 AM »

Word (well, rumour) is that a majority has yet to cast a vote and that about a third is still undecided; this has led to some Labour insiders not being as convinced about a Corbyn victory as they were a week or so ago. Burnham's camp is putting out data suggesting that a plurality of the undecideds are leaning towards him.

Yeah the data I've seen shows that Corbyn will probably win on the first round but only with about 35%, meaning that Burnham has a good chance of coming back. Funnily enough we looked and 1 out of 16 Kendall voters have put Corbyn as there 2... make of that what you will haha

What data is this?
At our nomination meeting, one of the three people brave enough to vote for Kendall also second preferenced Corbyn, so these strange ones do exist!
Logged
politicus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,174
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1002 on: August 28, 2015, 05:25:59 AM »



Some interesting figures; 22% of Britons say they are against the Royals; that must be the highest for some time; higher even than opposition to airstrikes against ISIS. Also, surely tuition fees aren't tuition fees if paid entirely by the government? Also, lol at a large proportion of Kendall supporters who strongly hold positions that would put them in the Socialist Campaign Group if they were MPs.

Obviously this doesn't prove anything either way but you can certainly see the potential for a Corbyn led Labour Party bumping up against the Great British public at the general election in 2020 and coming away with a drubbing.

Only 42% of Corbyn supporters want tuition fees paid 100% by the government? That is quite low.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1003 on: August 28, 2015, 05:28:04 AM »

Word (well, rumour) is that a majority has yet to cast a vote and that about a third is still undecided; this has led to some Labour insiders not being as convinced about a Corbyn victory as they were a week or so ago. Burnham's camp is putting out data suggesting that a plurality of the undecideds are leaning towards him.

Yeah the data I've seen shows that Corbyn will probably win on the first round but only with about 35%, meaning that Burnham has a good chance of coming back. Funnily enough we looked and 1 out of 16 Kendall voters have put Corbyn as there 2... make of that what you will haha

What data is this?
At our nomination meeting, one of the three people brave enough to vote for Kendall also second preferenced Corbyn, so these strange ones do exist!

It's a combination of phone bank data, voter ID, turnout reporting etc. I've got no idea how they merged it all together because I'm just a foot soldier
Logged
ChrisDR68
PoshPaws68
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 395
United Kingdom
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1004 on: August 28, 2015, 07:26:04 AM »

Yeah the data I've seen shows that Corbyn will probably win on the first round but only with about 35%, meaning that Burnham has a good chance of coming back. Funnily enough we looked and 1 out of 16 Kendall voters have put Corbyn as there 2... make of that what you will haha

If Corbyn only gets up to around the 35-40% mark after the first round (which would surprise me after all the hoopla surrounding him) it looks somewhat doubtful he will end up winning.

Will each round of voting be announced and then a gap while the second preferences of the eliminated candidate are redistributed amongst those remaining?
Logged
Hnv1
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,505


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1005 on: August 28, 2015, 09:54:08 AM »

Certain the Corbyn hype was over exaggerated and a bit played by Burnham\Cooper in order to get enough votes around to carry them to a 1:1 with him.
I'll wager Burnham to win leadership with Watson as deputy 
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1006 on: August 28, 2015, 10:22:45 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2015, 11:34:01 AM by Blair »

Certain the Corbyn hype was over exaggerated and a bit played by Burnham\Cooper in order to get enough votes around to carry them to a 1:1 with him.
I'll wager Burnham to win leadership with Watson as deputy  


It may being optimistic but several things could over inflate the Corbyn Surge...
-Social Media, the zeal and numbers of his supporters don't even match the polling data. If we based elections on social media noise last election the Greens would have won with UKIP coming second. It's very much an echo chamber.
- The media is building up the hype, combined with 'silly season' in August and the desire for a story Corbyn is the perfect candidate. The £3 supporters are all being billed as Corbyn supporters when in fact they won't all vote for him
- The polls give Corbyn a shocking 37 point lead, winning 57 in the first round which is equal to Blair in 1994. Considering multiple general election polls were wrong by 6 points (Most were lab 33, tories 33) I'm not going to leap back into trusting polls. Plus it's much easier to say to a poll your voting Corbyn than to actually vote for him.

This is the type of thing you can repost when I'm proved horribly wrong


Yeah the data I've seen shows that Corbyn will probably win on the first round but only with about 35%, meaning that Burnham has a good chance of coming back. Funnily enough we looked and 1 out of 16 Kendall voters have put Corbyn as there 2... make of that what you will haha

If Corbyn only gets up to around the 35-40% mark after the first round (which would surprise me after all the hoopla surrounding him) it looks somewhat doubtful he will end up winning.

Will each round of voting be announced and then a gap while the second preferences of the eliminated candidate are redistributed amongst those remaining? [/quote]

I assume so, Anne Black did an awful job in 2010 because she read out how each person did in each section (trade unions, members, PLP)

The magic number is 43%, if Corbyn gets above that the data says he'll win in the last round
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1007 on: August 28, 2015, 10:38:40 AM »

Funnily enough we looked and 1 out of 16 Kendall voters have put Corbyn as there 2... make of that what you will haha

At our nomination meeting, one of the three people brave enough to vote for Kendall also second preferenced Corbyn, so these strange ones do exist!

Je t'aime THIGMOO.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1008 on: August 28, 2015, 12:45:40 PM »

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/here-are-voters-brutal-assessments-of-the-labour-leadership#.fnvQDwqzq3

It's buzzfeed, I know but its interesting. The 2010 focus groups actually showed what could happen at the 2015 election, and these one's show that all four have there problems. It also shows how sexist the average brit is imo, I know you can't call the voters thick but here's the summary

Corbyn-Hates the rich, bitter hippy guy
Kendall- Doesn't care, looks like headmistress
Cooper- Only cares about mum issues
Burnham- Too young!?
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1009 on: August 28, 2015, 01:44:37 PM »

The Corbyn-on-35% data came from Burnham's phone bank data which media sources were made aware of.
Logged
Hifly
hifly15
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1010 on: August 28, 2015, 01:52:10 PM »

The Corbyn-on-35% data came from Burnham's phone bank data which media sources were made aware of.

In that case don't waste your time with it. I was volunteering at Burnham's last month and all their phone bank data is sh**t and irrelevant.
Logged
joevsimp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 482


Political Matrix
E: -5.95, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1011 on: August 28, 2015, 01:54:37 PM »

Yeah the data I've seen shows that Corbyn will probably win on the first round but only with about 35%, meaning that Burnham has a good chance of coming back. Funnily enough we looked and 1 out of 16 Kendall voters have put Corbyn as there 2... make of that what you will haha

If Corbyn only gets up to around the 35-40% mark after the first round (which would surprise me after all the hoopla surrounding him) it looks somewhat doubtful he will end up winning.

Will each round of voting be announced and then a gap while the second preferences of the eliminated candidate are redistributed amongst those remaining?

they'll probably tally up by computer, but announce each round one after the other
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1012 on: August 28, 2015, 02:26:38 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2015, 02:33:42 PM by Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit »


Many of these policies receive majority support amongst Tories, it is a testament to the gulf between the PLP and the membership that these aren't our accepted policies.

As I've said before a tory in kent supporting rail nationalization isn't going to simply vote Labour because of one policy. Our last manifesto has scared me off retail politics

Depends entirely on the Tory in question? If they're by no means a committed one, and they see eye-watering amounts leaving their pay packet each year just for privilege to commute to work and back, they may well just do. Getting tougher on benefits (so much so that a % die whilst being found fit for work), further privatisations that they likely don't support in the first place, more austerity for jam tomorrow and not much benefits for it, and immigration targets that they continually fail to meet don't tangibly improve their lot in the same way. No matter which way you cut it, it's an attractive policy to them that is on our turf - which beats ratcheting up our toughness on our own supporters (which curiously doesn't fail the 'Tories won't simply vote Labour' obstacle of yours?).


Many of these policies receive majority support amongst Tories, it is a testament to the gulf between the PLP and the membership that these aren't our accepted policies.

As I've said before a tory in kent supporting rail nationalization isn't going to simply vote Labour because of one policy. Our last manifesto has scared me off retail politics

In addition, people may like the policies but doubt the credibility of those promoting them.

Can't get much worse in credibility than temporary freezes that even the most disinterested members of the public quickly realise will just be made up for in the years following and other toothless, piecemeal reforms that leave the fundamentals untouched (see: rent freeze).

Only 42% of Corbyn supporters want tuition fees paid 100% by the government? That is quite low.

Bear in mind 'Corbyn supporters' have long since extended beyond the hard-left.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1013 on: August 28, 2015, 04:21:36 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2015, 04:27:22 PM by London Man »


Depends entirely on the Tory in question? If they're by no means a committed one, and they see eye-watering amounts leaving their pay packet each year just for privilege to commute to work and back, they may well just do.

While railway renationalisation may be a popular policy, it's probably not that high on most people's list of priorities. I'm a heritage rail enthusiast and I really, really don't care whether my local rail services are privately or publicly run, just that the service is decent.

And in my case, one of my local services, c2c (whose franchise has just been extended to 2029) is a huge improvement on the service in BR days.
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1014 on: August 28, 2015, 05:36:33 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2015, 05:38:10 PM by Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit »

While railway renationalisation may be a popular policy, it's probably not that high on most people's list of priorities. I'm a heritage rail enthusiast and I really, really don't care whether my local rail services are privately or publicly run, just that the service is decent.

It'll be high on the list for those having to pay through the nose for their yearly commuting to work, and that's who this policy will appeal to (beyond socialists) - those hit by spiralling ticket prices (alongside significant public subsidies) and the broader cost of living crisis - not rail enthusiasts. The other nationalisations mooted also speak to that, and would more resolutely benefit the breadth of the country.  

And in my case, one of my local services, c2c (whose franchise has just been extended to 2029) is a huge improvement on the service in BR days.

I'd posit your apathy contrasting with the enduring wish to nationalise despite it being off the agenda for decades now suggests that this experience isn't typical.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1015 on: August 29, 2015, 06:40:18 AM »

A fair few of the policies Corbyn has been advocating could be quite popular (the nationalisation of the train franchises - the railways themselves already being in public hands and without compensation as well lmao - being one of them), the questionable part is how they're sold. People like Labour to bash vested interests and to stick up for ordinary people. Remember the windfall taxes on privatised utilities? Comrades, that was Blair. People are less keen on things being advocated for what look like dogmatic reasons.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1016 on: August 29, 2015, 10:06:18 AM »

Agree; that whole energy price freeze polled well, definitely, but Ed Miliband came across as more like Mr Bean than a Prime Minister.

Also, it's worth noting that the second biggest of the "Big Six" energy companies, EDF, is in fact basically owned by the French government - the initials stand for Électricité de France. Essentially "nicking" a multi-billion pound asset from a foreign government is the kind of thing that has literally caused wars in the past and would not go down well with other EU nations.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1017 on: August 29, 2015, 10:10:02 AM »

My general view on the issue of foreign state corporations losing out due to nationalisation can be summed up roughly as 'cry me a river', but, yes, sensitivity would be required.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1018 on: August 29, 2015, 10:40:57 AM »

Did anyone see the Newsnight focus groups last night? They were basically the full versions that were in the Buzzfeed article I mentioned earlier
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1019 on: August 29, 2015, 10:44:48 AM »

Did anyone see the Newsnight focus groups last night? They were basically the full versions that were in the Buzzfeed article I mentioned earlier

Didn't one of them say that Corbyn's policies are right out of the 60s? Lol, as if that decade wasn't far better to live in than the current one (for the average Brit, anyway). Most of the policies were better too.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1020 on: August 29, 2015, 12:09:22 PM »

Labour's policies in the 1960s were actually to the right of Corbyn, certainly in terms of defence. In some areas, Corbyn is actually to the left of the 1983 manifesto, which was still committed to NATO membership.
Logged
politicus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,174
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1021 on: August 29, 2015, 12:21:51 PM »

Labour's policies in the 1960s were actually to the right of Corbyn, certainly in terms of defence. In some areas, Corbyn is actually to the left of the 1983 manifesto, which was still committed to NATO membership.

This may be a daft question, but why is Britain becoming neutral seen as such an extreme position? You are on the edge of Europe and face no serious security threats, so you could "afford" it better than most. Is it clinging on to past glory via the special relationship with the US?

Also, why is there (seemingly) no right wing isolationist opposition to NATO? Are all of UKIP and the Europhobic part of the Tories pro-Atlantic?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1022 on: August 29, 2015, 12:27:13 PM »

The answer to your second question is that foreign policy in general is waaaaaaaaay less important to the electorate than it was during the Cold War (understandably: the existential threat is gone after all) and so it is less important to politicians (who aren't foreign policy obsessives) as well.

And the answer to the first is that the position conflicts with that of the FCO and the diplomatic establishment (inc. academics etc) generally.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1023 on: August 29, 2015, 12:48:04 PM »

Labour hasn't really focused on defining it's 'foreign policy' since decolonisation (which is the only time it was particularly forceful) When it does, you get this;



So it's no loss if it doesn't formulate one while in opposition this time round.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1024 on: August 29, 2015, 02:19:31 PM »
« Edited: August 29, 2015, 03:09:02 PM by London Man »

In addition, it has not been in the historical interest of the UK to stay neutral; especially if being so meant another European power dominating the continent. We are only 26 miles from France for one thing.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 36 37 38 39 40 [41] 42 43 44 45 46 ... 58  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.067 seconds with 12 queries.