Labour Party leadership election 2015
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Author Topic: Labour Party leadership election 2015  (Read 138739 times)
Blair
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« Reply #1150 on: September 10, 2015, 04:31:10 AM »

well it's almost over, got about an hour left of voting. Here's my final prediction of the result

1st Round

Corbyn 42%
Cooper 27%
Burnham 21%
Kendall 11%

2nd Round

Corbyn 43%
Cooper 34%
Burham 24%

3rd Round

Corbyn 57%
Cooper 43%
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1151 on: September 10, 2015, 04:42:58 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2015, 04:47:03 AM by Phony Moderate »

Keir Hardie is currently trending on Twitter.

Also saw on Twitter that around 340,000 votes is likely to be the number cast - pointing to a turnout of around 60%.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1152 on: September 10, 2015, 05:58:48 AM »

Keir Hardie is currently trending on Twitter.

Is that because of the anti-immigration stuff Wink
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1153 on: September 10, 2015, 06:08:32 AM »

Ok if we're doing predictions here's mine:

1st round:

Corbyn 41%
Burnham 25%
Cooper 21%
Kendall 13%

2nd round:

Corbyn 43%
Cooper 30%
Burnham 27%

3rd round:

Corbyn 61%
Cooper 39%

My guess is that a big majority of Burnham supporters will have Corbyn as their second preference and that's what will nail it for Comrade Corbyn.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1154 on: September 10, 2015, 06:16:53 AM »

I just found an interesting conversation on Twitter's search thing; it starts with someone stating that he will be preferencing Cooper first, then Kendall, then Corbyn, then Burnham. Someone responds by saying that he is unable to decide between Corbyn and Cooper for first and Burnham and Kendall for last. Someone else then states that he is putting 1. Cooper, 2. Corbyn, 3. Kendall, 4. Burnham.

Needless to say that the above doesn't exactly fit in with conventional wisdom.

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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1155 on: September 10, 2015, 08:42:54 AM »

Also from Twitter:

Quote
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1156 on: September 10, 2015, 10:03:13 AM »

Well almost all of the registered supporters registered as such in order to vote in the leadership contest so it would be pretty shocking if turnout from them was not highest.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1157 on: September 10, 2015, 10:37:28 AM »

Interesting piece in today's Guardian from Michael Ashcroft polling about why Labour lost in this year general election. Apparently his findings seem to suggest Tony Blair is not as unpopular with Labour voters as a lot on the left seem to think he is:

The polling also shows that those in the Labour electorate who regard Tony Blair as source of shame rather than pride are in the minority. Writing in the Guardian, Ashcroft suggests: “Loyalists as well as defectors to other parties (especially the Conservatives) regard Tony Blair as the best Labour leader for 30 years, as do voters as whole.”

While loyalists and defectors overall both said John Smith, the Labour leader in the mid-90s, did a better job at standing up for the party’s values, both groups put Blair ahead of Smith, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Miliband on representing the whole country, appealing beyond traditional Labour voters and offering strong, competent leadership.

Corbyn has prioritised denouncing the British invasion of Iraq, saying he will formally apologise on behalf of the Labour party. Many in the Corbyn campaign have argued that a new winning coalition can be formed of radicals in Scotland, former Green voters, disillusioned Ukip voters and those who otherwise do not vote.

Ashcroft argues that Labour needs to win back some of the voters it lost to the Conservatives if it is to have a hope of winning in 2020.


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/10/labour-loyalists-put-principles-before-power-ashcroft-poll

Blair's critics are certainly loud and strident in their views but they apparently are also in a minority Smiley
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1158 on: September 10, 2015, 10:40:40 AM »

When (and how) will the result be published?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1159 on: September 10, 2015, 10:41:55 AM »

Saturday
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1160 on: September 10, 2015, 10:44:19 AM »

Winning elections does not necessarily mean that one is a good leader; I remember watching an old Question Time in which it was stated to Blair that he was a good Prime Minister but not a good leader.

When (and how) will the result be published?

Between 11 and noon (our time) on Saturday the 12th at a special conference.

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warandwar
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« Reply #1161 on: September 10, 2015, 11:05:16 AM »

Interesting piece in today's Guardian from Michael Ashcroft polling about why Labour lost in this year general election. Apparently his findings seem to suggest Tony Blair is not as unpopular with Labour voters as a lot on the left seem to think he is:

The polling also shows that those in the Labour electorate who regard Tony Blair as source of shame rather than pride are in the minority. Writing in the Guardian, Ashcroft suggests: “Loyalists as well as defectors to other parties (especially the Conservatives) regard Tony Blair as the best Labour leader for 30 years, as do voters as whole.”

While loyalists and defectors overall both said John Smith, the Labour leader in the mid-90s, did a better job at standing up for the party’s values, both groups put Blair ahead of Smith, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Miliband on representing the whole country, appealing beyond traditional Labour voters and offering strong, competent leadership.

Corbyn has prioritised denouncing the British invasion of Iraq, saying he will formally apologise on behalf of the Labour party. Many in the Corbyn campaign have argued that a new winning coalition can be formed of radicals in Scotland, former Green voters, disillusioned Ukip voters and those who otherwise do not vote.

Ashcroft argues that Labour needs to win back some of the voters it lost to the Conservatives if it is to have a hope of winning in 2020.


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/10/labour-loyalists-put-principles-before-power-ashcroft-poll

Blair's critics are certainly loud and strident in their views but they apparently are also in a minority Smiley

Interesting piece:

If you agree with Corbyn you're a dummy. Polling shows that Blair is a friend of the animals as well as children. Corbyn's middle name is poopy. Blair's middle name is sunshinerainbow.

Blair's critics are certainly loud and strident in their views but they apparently are also in a minority Smiley
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Vega
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« Reply #1162 on: September 10, 2015, 11:14:09 AM »

“Loyalists as well as defectors to other parties (especially the Conservatives) regard Tony Blair as the best Labour leader for 30 years, as do voters as whole.”

That's most likely because he's the most visible.

Have there been many Corbyn-Labour match-ups against the Tories?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1163 on: September 10, 2015, 11:38:03 AM »

Have there been many Corbyn-Labour match-ups against the Tories?

Not that many at all; there's been little polling since the election on overall voter intention at all. Possibly because many of the companies are still trying to figure out how they got it badly wrong in May...

David Lammy's Mayoral campaign is saying 20% of people they spoke to in London didn't get a ballot paper... and overall turnout appears to have been around 60% of the selectorate.

In short, this entire contest hasn't covered this party in glory.
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Blair
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« Reply #1164 on: September 10, 2015, 11:47:12 AM »


On Corbyn's electoral strategy it's Mcgovern 1972, with even less realism. Basically all the green voters are going to vote for him, along with SNP voters because it's all about socialism. Former UKIP members would come back because they back rail privatisation and they'll forgot about immigration, and all the non voters will vote because they wanted socialism. Sounds good?  

On the ballot papers, from phone banking it's people who haven't checked their emails, or affliates/£3 expecting paper ballots when only members get them.

The 30% figure is hogwash though
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1165 on: September 10, 2015, 11:50:50 AM »

It's hardly less realistic given that we have more choices of party.
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jmlv
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« Reply #1166 on: September 10, 2015, 01:43:37 PM »

Interesting piece in today's Guardian from Michael Ashcroft polling about why Labour lost in this year general election. Apparently his findings seem to suggest Tony Blair is not as unpopular with Labour voters as a lot on the left seem to think he is:

The polling also shows that those in the Labour electorate who regard Tony Blair as source of shame rather than pride are in the minority. Writing in the Guardian, Ashcroft suggests: “Loyalists as well as defectors to other parties (especially the Conservatives) regard Tony Blair as the best Labour leader for 30 years, as do voters as whole.”

While loyalists and defectors overall both said John Smith, the Labour leader in the mid-90s, did a better job at standing up for the party’s values, both groups put Blair ahead of Smith, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Miliband on representing the whole country, appealing beyond traditional Labour voters and offering strong, competent leadership.

Corbyn has prioritised denouncing the British invasion of Iraq, saying he will formally apologise on behalf of the Labour party. Many in the Corbyn campaign have argued that a new winning coalition can be formed of radicals in Scotland, former Green voters, disillusioned Ukip voters and those who otherwise do not vote.

Ashcroft argues that Labour needs to win back some of the voters it lost to the Conservatives if it is to have a hope of winning in 2020.


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/10/labour-loyalists-put-principles-before-power-ashcroft-poll

Blair's critics are certainly loud and strident in their views but they apparently are also in a minority Smiley


Someone who talks about radicals of scotland when talking about the snp cannot be taken seriously
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1167 on: September 10, 2015, 02:16:34 PM »

Someone who talks about radicals of scotland when talking about the snp cannot be taken seriously

Watched a very interesting edition of Booktalk on BBC Parliament recently which stated that the Scots are in fact very, very similar in how big they want the state to be, the size and scope of the welfare safety net and how much redistribution there should be in the UK.

The reason the three Westminster parties have been rejected by the Scots seems to be more to do with them all being perceived as broadly English parties leaving the way clear for the SNP wipeout in this years general election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b051jqfl/booktalk-philip-cowley-and-robert-ford

I've also found the preview of the book about this subject. Go to chapter 20 "The Myth Of The Meritocratic Scotland". Well worth a read Smiley

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=o8oPBQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=inauthor:%22Daniel+Finkelstein%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CDoQuwUwBGoVChMIntO6z5TtxwIVpmnbCh2ntQ54#v=onepage&q&f=false
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jaichind
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« Reply #1168 on: September 10, 2015, 04:22:11 PM »

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11857140/Jeremy-Corbyn-Im-looking-forward-to-leading-Labour.html

"Jeremy Corbyn: I'm 'looking forward' to leading Labour"

"The hard-left candidate appears to declare victory in Labour leadership contest 48 hours before the result is announced as his rivals begin to concede defeat."

I guess this is his version of

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPjCAHCBffI
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1169 on: September 10, 2015, 09:28:30 PM »

Corbyn will not be the next Labour leader.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1170 on: September 10, 2015, 11:29:24 PM »

Why is Burnham polling so low? I assumed he'd end up being Corbyn's main opponent. He's probably the best choice to keep the party together.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #1171 on: September 11, 2015, 02:46:24 AM »

Why is Burnham polling so low? I assumed he'd end up being Corbyn's main opponent. He's probably the best choice to keep the party together.

Unfortunately, though keeping the party together might be a leaders most important job, it is usually not the issue party members vote on in leadership elections.

That is why the Swedish Social Democratic Party still won't allow its members to elect its leader.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1172 on: September 11, 2015, 03:23:23 AM »

Many in the Corbyn campaign have argued that a new winning coalition can be formed of radicals in Scotland, former Green voters, disillusioned Ukip voters and those who otherwise do not vote.

Is this real? Do they actually think this? Jesus christ.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1173 on: September 11, 2015, 03:33:13 AM »
« Edited: September 11, 2015, 03:36:50 AM by Phony Moderate »

Corbyn will not be the next Labour leader.

Doing a Keystone Phil are we? Tongue

Anyway, the bookies are going to take a hammering whoever has won. Corbyn is now as short as 1/16 having been as long as 200/1 just a few months ago. Presumably a fair few have placed bets on Burnham and Cooper on the basis that "it can't possibly happen, can it?".
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1174 on: September 11, 2015, 06:14:40 AM »

So, there is a fair chance that Jeremy Corbyn will be leader of the Labour Party and of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition this time tomorrow. Still surreal.
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