Labour Party leadership election 2015

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Of the likely candidates, who is on the right and the left of the party?

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Mostly because it isn't actually true.

Because they also failed to gain a large batch of seats in Middle England, in part because of a party (UKIP) running to their right.

Labour's got a huge issue it has to deal with; its membership base, myself included, is pretty far off the political average of the British electorate.

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Jim Murphy

I think Labour should choose someone who will take them back to the left - regardless who it is - as there seems to be too little of a difference between the two main parties.

I don't agree; we need Middle England to win an overall majority.

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There is talk of Miliband going down the IDS route and becoming a cabinet minister in the next Labour government (whenever that may be). IDS has certainly made more impact in the past five years than he did as Tory leader, so perhaps not a bad idea.

Those on benefits might beg to differ.

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Kendall is Tony Blair in a dress.

Tony Blair won three general elections, so that's not exactly a bad thing.

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Many will recall that Blair took over the party by arguing that it needed to get with the times. Now his creatures want to take the party back a least a decade.

A decade would take us back to 2005... when Labour won a 66 seat majority instead of now with the party 100 seats adrift of the Conservatives.

Exactly. Labour is where it is because of the 2nd biggest recession of the last 100 years; not something you recover from overnight. Remember it took the GOP 20 years to get back into power after the Great Depression.

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It's not an entirely meaningful statistic, but it pleases me that Blair in 2001 and 2005 and Cameron in 2010 and 2015 won a lower total popular vote than Callaghan in 1979.

That's because turnout has dropped so much in recent years.

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Watson would of course be a return to normality as far as the deputy leadership goes - an overweight macho bruising type - think Prescott, Hattersley, Healey, George Brown etc.

Watson was a big campaigner over phone-hacking; he's probably made a lot of enemies in the right-wing press as a result.

I see that there have been attempts by Tory supporters to affiliate, so they can vote for Corbyn.

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Also, I severely doubt many of his views would play well with the electorate at large... and this picture would probably feature a lot.

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Yeah, but that was in the 1980s when the IRA were still very much active... and the Daily Mail still doesn't like Adams.

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Anyway, Unite have issued an official endorsement for whatever it's worth*: Corbyn for first preference, Burnham for second.

That might be key; no-one is likely to get a majority on first preferences and it'll come down to second or third preferences.

That probably hurts Corbyn; he's not likely to be second preference for many in other camps.

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Jeremy Corbyn (judging by the content of comments sections under many Guardian articles) is the choice of many activists and members. He's would almost certainly be an electoral millstone around the neck of the party in a similar way to Michael Foot in 1983. Having said that I wouldn't be totally shocked if he won the leadership so Labour can again try and persuade a conservative (small "c") UK electorate to vote for the radical far left. The end result though would almost certainly be another three figure Conservative majority in the house of commons.

 

Foot wasn't exactly a full-on borderline Trotskyite. Corbyn is - and he's never held a ministerial brief in his life.

If we're stupid enough to elect Corbyn, I'd seriously consider resigning my membership.

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See Burnham has managed to make a rather big gaffe in relation to a certain tabloid newspaper.

As for the child benefits issue: Limiting the credits to the first two children is something popular with the country at large. People can't see why they should have to pay for those who can't engage in proper family planning, especially if they can't afford to have three or four kids themselves.

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As for the child benefits issue: Limiting the credits to the first two children is something popular with the country at large. People can't see why they should have to pay for those who can't engage in proper family planning, especially if they can't afford to have three or four kids themselves.

Because the parents aren't the only people who have to live in those families, you see.

Oh, I agree. But that's what a lot of people think.

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Starting to get worried about Corbyn-from what I've heard in the party at this rate he could come second to Andy Burnham. It would be pretty bad if Corbyn gets the most 1st preferences but loses to AB because of Cooper/Kendall votes

One advantage of PR is that the "hard-left" and the "centre-left" tend to end up in different parties. Not really a solution here.

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Seems about right. Maybe if he achieves some sort of miracle and keeps the right flank bolted on, he can grab a minority or something in a neutral year; but yeah the odds would be stacked against him.

i wonder if Corbyn gets a Shadow Cabinet position out of this?

Assuming he even gets to 2020. Corbyn will be a year older than Michael Foot was then and Foot had a difficult time keeping with the pace of 1983. The chances of Corbyn, who has never held a high-profile office in his life, suffering some major health event before then are significant enough that they have to be taken into consideration.

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Churchill suffered major health problems during the war

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And by 2018 the damage will have been done as much of the Labour Right would have left the party.

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But what counts as a defeat/victory next time exactly? Labour only need to gain 30-40 seats to potentially have the numbers to form some kind of government. If the Tories lose even 20-25 then it might be a challenge for them to stay, especially given that the (presumably Farron-led) Lib Dems will be reluctant at best to enter into any agreement with them.

They actually have to *gain* the seats first. By no means a certainty.

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I haven't really been following this, a... are we actually talking about a Corbyn leadership as if it's a realistic possibility?

Some leaked poll suggested that it might be, but note the words "leaked poll".

The Burnham campaign questioned whether there was even a poll.

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The thing is Corbyn does hold some positions very dear to me. Unilateral disarmament, a genuine loathing of the arms trade, completely comprehensive education, pro-Palastine, huge animal rights supporter, a republian and (supporters aside) a member of the True Left that isn't annoying, self-defeating or a gigantic prick.

I don't even think many of the (southern) Irish support a United Ireland any more; more trouble than it's worth for them.

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I don't even think many of the (southern) Irish support a United Ireland any more; more trouble than it's worth for them.

It's not polled often, but there is some data.

On support within the republic for a united Ireland:

Date	Poll	For	Against
2012	MRBI/Irish Times	64	8
2010	RedC/Sunday Times	57	22
2006	RedC/Sunday Business Post	80	10

I stand corrected, but I see it's dropped a lot in recent years. Is it really something people get worked up about?

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Leadership candidates who actually want to win aren't going to vote against the whip immediately before the election because if they *are* elected then they would find it... hard... to impose discipline.

Problem with Corbyn is that he's never held a front bench post, Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet. Thrusting him to the top job like that will be problematic. Also, considering his viewpoints, if I was in David Cameron's shoes, I'd be rather concerned about giving him the Privy Councillor status that comes with the title of Leader of the Opposition i.e. access to some pretty secret information.

(Does Angus Robertson have PC status?)

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The Privy Council is the official channel used by the PM when briefing opposition politicians on national security matters; Harriet Harman was informed about some IS stuff the other day through it.

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Only his very left-wing views and rampant dislike of the US. Not likely, I admit but more likely than the other candidates.

Consider my statement withdrawn. Sorry for jumping to conclusions.