Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Blair]

It's bad when someone like me a-a shameless labour hack who spends the whole day reading political stuff is still unsure who to vote for. I'm leaning towards Burnham, and I've got my email signed up to his updates but tbh they seem kinda sh**t. I'll go to hustings and give them a good heckling over being pro-trident, my biggest fear is they'll forget that Ed did tons of good stuff

We really need Jarvis-he isn't a white horse candidate (like Wesley Clark) he's quite policy heavy and is a very good speaker (his progress speech was good)

[Blair]

I assume there's a bloc of about 20-30 who'll get Corbyn on the ballot. It will help Burnham, like it helped Ed in 2010 because tons of the militant lot will come out and vote for Corbyn 1 and Burnham 2.

Fabian hustings today as well http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jun/06/labour-leadership-hustings-at-fabian-summer-conference-politics-live#block-55732308e4b0f3282588b7ca

Very good read-long story short Cooper and Burnham are the brownite/miliband type candiates and Kendall is the shameless modernizer

[Blair]

anyone see the debates?

[Blair]

Flint isn't a blairite, that's not a fair label. She was the strongest supporter of the energy gap,and unlike the blairites she was loyal to milibae

[Blair]

Nah-people dont really give a sh**t about the IRA anymore. Gerry Adams may not be Mandela but people actually don't see him as an issue.

If the Queen is happy to meet with him, then it's a complete non-issue. The Mail are going to attack Labour whoever they put up. Corbyn has many other flaws

[Blair]

Read this exchange in the comments section of this Dan Hodges article which I thought was quite telling (and which I agree with to a large extent):

amac
Labour is in a pickle. The membership broadly believe in Corbyn's world view. The nation at large don't. To win the leadership contest you have to win over the membership and then defecate on them to win a general election and be hated for evermore by them for selling them out.

Marc68 
Tragic isn't it? The activists want to maintain the purity of the faith which will lead to perennial opposition once the Tories decimate their welfare dependent constituency. In truth the activists are probably happier in opposition where the compromises of government do not apply.

All this is no good for ambitious politicos who want some power of course. Oh well, couldn't happen to a nicer bunch....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11682718/Who-won-the-Labour-leadership-debate-Nobody.html 

I've always thought large elements of the Labour Party are essentially much happier in opposition. A culture that Tony Blair tried to change when he was leader but was only temporarily successful in this during the period he was prime minister. Once he stood down the party's default instinct of being the party of opposition and protest reasserted itself.   

I partly agree, partly disagree to play moderate hero.

TB was very successful in the early years with House of Lords, minimum wage etc but he drifted so far off after 2005. I'm not even one of the Iraq opponents but I still think the stuff Labour did post 2003 like Tuition Fees, ID cards, 44 days detention and Cannabis laws was crap. It simply wasn't what a centre left party should do

[Blair]

Starting to get worried about Corbyn-from what I've heard in the party at this rate he could come second to Andy Burnham. It would be pretty bad if Corbyn gets the most 1st preferences but loses to AB because of Cooper/Kendall votes

[Blair]

Word on the labour grapevine is that the poll is bullsh**t-it's been created by looking at CLP nominations (which are often wrong-2010 should have been 70% for David Miliband on this basis) There's been talk for days about how 'New Labour camp' will try and shake off Corbyn.

This is why you shouldn't open elections up

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jul/15/daily-telegraph-labour-party-jeremy-corbyn

[Blair]

Incidentally if Corbyn were to win then his age would not be an issue as it is very clear that he has no intention of actually leading Labour into an election. He would likely make certain structural changes and hand over as quickly as possible to someone on the Left - and that can be 'safely' asserted because if Corbyn wins it would be a pretty clear sign of Left dominance within the membership - who's younger than him.

His team have said that he'd resign in 2018 along with Cameron, and as you say let a left wing choice in. As much as his age and issues are a problem the fact is that 50% of Labour is still at heart New Labour

[Blair]

The problem is that Ed only had to fight the Blairites in a sense (they played pretty nicely for 5 years) The entire New Labour wing of the Party (makes up 75-80% of the CLP) would revolt against Corbyn, his shadow Cabinet would have to include some of the worst that labour has to offer.

The only good thing would be watching Labour getting crushed in an early election (repeal fixed term first) and seeing all the left wingers who 'want a real socialist working class labour party not torylite scum' watch as the Labour lose.

Why are we fighting the battles of the 1980's again?

[Blair]

A 'New Labour' revolt in the event of Corbyn victory (assuming it would be based upon the fact that Corbyn won) would surely show to the party and to the public their hatred of democracy. The same would be true of the Left if they were to react that way to Kendall victory, though it is worth noting that the likes of Benn, Corbyn and Skinner didn't choose to form their own party in 1994, or even whine that much, frankly. Blair was brought down not by the Left but by the Brownite Right. 

I don't even have a problem with Corbyn. I'm just sick of the over-zealous facebook comments about people who think him winning would turn Britain into some sort of political paradise

[Blair]

Anyway, a bunch of new supporting nominations tonight: will update the map tomorrow. Kendall picked up some big London CLPs (including all three in Southwark) which may be notable or may just reflect the fact that factional lines are unusually stark in the capital.

Thing to note, and I might as well at this point as any other, is that the people who turn up to CLP meetings are not necessarily that reflective of the overall membership of the CLP: as such there will be a lot of CLPs that end up voting differently to their supporting nomination.

My CLP had the MP, and all the party brass supporting Kendall. 5 new trade unionists spoke up to speak for Corbyn who beat Kendall by 5 votes-about as divided as you get

[Blair]

Is Kendall getting a bump? I thought she was the least likely to win of all the candidates.

She's got 10 CLP's, which doubled from 5 on wednesday night. The common view is that her campaign has been the worst run-she's got a pretty unpopular cast running it. She's most likely to come 4th-which shows how much progress/the right wing of the party has declined in the last 10 years.

[Blair]

1) Burnham
2) Cooper
3) Corbyn
4) Kendall

I like Corbyn, but I'm not a fan of pointless factional warfare. Kendall is basically a walking disaster.

Basically this-corbyn has some pretty bad positions that others should attack. Not only his vague economic alternative which was touted by Benn in the 1980's but his lack of commitment to foreign affairs. The best thing Blair did was intervene in Kosovo-I couldn't support a labour leader who fails to see that military force can in rare cases be a force for good.

I understand the support for Corbyn, but some of it is based on the rather scary rhetoric coming out of some left wingers in the UK.

Tbh if Corbyn leads to Jarvis in 2018 I'd be able to live

[Blair]

Heard that the Corbyn scare in the last couple of days has been pushed by the Kendal camp-Hunt and Chukka coming out so strongly shows that there's some sense to this. They seem to be trying to re-start their awful campaign on the idea that 'corbyn is change-people want change- people want Kendall' That's literally what Kendall said when asked about Corbyns success.

I've got mixed feelings on deputy leader-Tom Watson is a great campaigner, and has the ability to cut through the political bollocks but he's got a few dozen skeletons in his closet-like trying to rig a selection meeting. Probably go with 1.) Flint 2.) Creasy 3.) Watson

[Blair]

Now heading into self-parody territory

I've always wondered if Kendall was just playing up to the progess bloc, she's not. If she continues like this Corbyn could get my highly valued 3rd preference

[Blair]

Talking of Brown, when are the Right going to wheel him out? He's a far more liked figure in the party the Blair and is capable of a very impressive and convincing speech on his day (Citizens UK in 2010 and the "Vote No" one last year). In fact the Citizens UK one contains a lot of stuff that Corbyn is campaigning on now. http://youtu.be/6BA2Jz7xIXw

I've seen him floated as a 'centre left' figure who could stop Corbyn. Problem is that all the well know Labour ministers are 'hated Blairites' apart from Alan Johnson. 

[Blair]

Regarding the latest poll, word is that the Cooper campaign were behind it. They did this bollocks before, where they plug there numbers in so that they beat Burnham and face Corbyn. It's funny that Corbyn is set to beat David Miliband on the first ballot.

Regarding Ed Miliband being too left wing or not, the problem was that they spend too much time trying to work out what they wanted. Ed spoke at that weird 2011 anti-cuts protest, but had a luke warm connection to it. Labour's biggest problems were that voters thought we were weak on the economy, couldn't govern and were too soft on irritation and benefits. The anti-business card was thrown at labour like a wrench throughout the campaign, and clearly connected.

[Blair]

Well my MP told me that Corbyn would get kicked out by Christmas, and he'd struggle to find anyone worth while to serve in his cabinet-in all fairness my MP's an arch Blairite who supports Kendall but he says there's complete depression in the PLP.

The problem is that Corbyn has rebelled on something like 105 times, I mean I understand voting against Iraq/Tuition Fees/90 day detention but Corbyn rebelled so many times that he's digging himself in an even further ditch. Combined with the fact the PLP have become pretty factional since 1997 it's going to be a struggle.

The only issue, is that the PLP can't simply kick Corbyn out as they'd like to. Even as someone on the 'soft right' of the party such as myself sees that as awful now.

And yeah, I think Jarvis has been crowned as the next leader

[Blair]

The MP for Baghdad north is set to return

[Blair]

The Corbyn camp would hope to lead the left in the britain in a massive protest, the greens, the SNP, TUSC and all the rest would somehow float over to labour and the 40% who didn't vote will all come out for Corbyn. They see it as one last charge against austerity, and quite frankly there's a large portion who hope that it will 'purge the blairites' and reduce the labour party to a socialist party that get's 25% of the vote.

[Blair]

The Corbyn camp would hope to lead the left in the britain in a massive protest, the greens, the SNP, TUSC and all the rest would somehow float over to labour and the 40% who didn't vote will all come out for Corbyn. They see it as one last charge against austerity, and quite frankly there's a large portion who hope that it will 'purge the blairites' and reduce the labour party to a socialist party that get's 25% of the vote.

The Corbyn camp are supporting a largely social democratic platform, not a million miles (domestically) away from Germany or what's seen in Scandinavia. No-one seems to have noticed that Corbyn's platform is much moderated from Benn's (which got closer to 28% - "but we can moderate and get 30%!!"), with his conditional support for the EU a sign of it.

The Blairites at this point have usually followed Blair's direction of travel since resigning and are now more or less right-wingers who are utterly hostile to any hint of socialism ("I'd rather Cameron than Miliband"; "I wouldn't stand on it even if I knew it was a vote winner", as the Progress audience claps at dat pragmatism) and the unions.  Who forget that they've no longer got the Left sown up so marching off to the new Thatcherite settlement is no longer acceptable without losing votes that way (as we seen in Scotland).

The problem looking at Corbyn is that he has the most baggage because he's got links to the weird peace school of socialism. I mean sure be against Iraq that's fair but he says we should leave NATO ideally, that Northern Ireland should be part of Ireland and that all military force is wrong. I mean this is the battles that Labour had in the 1950's.

[Blair]

The problem looking at Corbyn is that he has the most baggage because he's got links to the weird peace school of socialism. I mean sure be against Iraq that's fair but he says we should leave NATO ideally, that Northern Ireland should be part of Ireland and that all military force is wrong. I mean this is the battles that Labour had in the 1950's.

I don't see anything wrong with those statements, and surely quite a number of Labour supporters do not either, or he would not be the front-runner in this.

It's not got much press, apart from a New Statesman article.

The problem is that this leadership debate is not really about policy, it's about how/what we want the party to be. If Corbyn is going to be beaten it's by saying that he's got a history of stupid positions. I mean Labour before Blair always at least pretended to be slight pro-military, I know the cold war was a different time but we still need to pretend that we can stand up for national interests

[Blair]

The problem looking at Corbyn is that he has the most baggage because he's got links to the weird peace school of socialism. I mean sure be against Iraq that's fair but he says we should leave NATO ideally, that Northern Ireland should be part of Ireland and that all military force is wrong. I mean this is the battles that Labour had in the 1950's.

I don't see anything wrong with those statements, and surely quite a number of Labour supporters do not either, or he would not be the front-runner in this.

It's not got much press, apart from a New Statesman article.

The problem is that this leadership debate is not really about policy, it's about how/what we want the party to be. If Corbyn is going to be beaten it's by saying that he's got a history of stupid positions. I mean Labour before Blair always at least pretended to be slight pro-military, I know the cold war was a different time but we still need to pretend that we can stand up for national interests

Can you link to the article? Corbyn is a pacifist?

At a hustings I went to in London he called for us 'to be a party of peace'

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/jeremy-corbyn-interview-i-think-we-have-think-terms-disillusioned-who-didn-t-vote

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The problem is that this leadership debate is not really about policy, it's about how/what we want the party to be.

We'll some policy has come up, but just social policy (benefits and stuff) and (in a vague sense) some economic stuff. And on those issues even Corbyn The Backbencher is well within the Labour mainstream, let alone Corbyn The Candidate (as several people have noted the irony of this campaign is that the candidate who has modified and moderated his positions the most is... er... Corbyn). But, yes, the issue is that the things on which he has rather more... er... alternative views have not featured.

That's the problem, the media can literally take his comments on Ireland, NATO, Milosevic and the royal family and spin it into an absolute fury.

On the plus side, Andy Burnham has one another well powerful endorsement, The women Gordon Brown called a bigot

[Blair]

On wider points it probably makes me a new labour hack to say this but even if people agree with Labour policies on housing, nuclear weapons and rail they will face the problem the tories had 2005-people agreed with the policy but disagree with the party. The tories would play out the 2015 election on max, it would be a complete assault on Labour being weak on defence and about to tax you to the max.

As I said above, Corbyn's problem is being attached to the old left that seemed to attack all western foreign policy as 'evil and imperialist'. We need to be a party of government