Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Leftbehind]

Since midday Corbyn supporters have been urging their hard left friends/followers on social media to pay the three quid, btw. Surely there would be a safeguard against such tactics, no?

I hope not.

[Leftbehind]

Interested to see how many refusals are reported. They don't stop CDU supporters from joining, I take it.

[Leftbehind]

It will be interesting to see if the FBU and/or RMT make much of an effort on that front.

On the front of joining en masse to vote Corbyn, or on the front of mischief?

Anyway, Unite have issued an official endorsement for whatever it's worth*: Corbyn for first preference, Burnham for second.

That's where I'm at.

[Leftbehind]

True, is it even possible to keep track of?

[Leftbehind]

Anyway, Unite have issued an official endorsement for whatever it's worth*: Corbyn for first preference, Burnham for second.

That might be key; no-one is likely to get a majority on first preferences and it'll come down to second or third preferences.

That probably hurts Corbyn; he's not likely to be second preference for many in other camps.

Arguably yes, but AV isn't exactly a bad system for Corbyn - it allows those who want to vote Corbyn without risking hurting their ABK candidate.

Jeremy Corbyn (judging by the content of comments sections under many Guardian articles) is the choice of many activists and members. He's would almost certainly be an electoral millstone around the neck of the party in a similar way to Michael Foot in 1983. Having said that I wouldn't be totally shocked if he won the leadership so Labour can again try and persuade a conservative (small "c") UK electorate to vote for the radical far left. The end result though would almost certainly be another three figure Conservative majority in the house of commons.

Small C electorate routinely being spoonfed privatizations of essential services, cuts for the wealthy whilst preached austerity is the only way and declining services. You forget that Thatcher was once seen radical right, and the Attlee government radical left (it probably would be seen today as such, funnily enough). You also forget that Foot was leading handsomely in the polls before the SDP split. But if that's true, then we leftists can shut up knowing we were wrong, however many of us weren't born the last time we got an attempt to sell our message & I'd rather that than another stop on the "are these our bastards, or just bastards?" merrygoround.

Also quelle surprise to see the Guardian warning against him in their latest article. So that makes it the immediate post-war years, the mid 70 elections, 1983 and now Corbyn. True paper of the left!

[Leftbehind]

Also quelle surprise to see the Guardian warning against him in their latest article. So that makes it the immediate post-war years, the mid 70 elections, 1983 and now Corbyn. True paper of the left!

As I understand it the Guardian is a liberal left newspaper rather than a socialist one. If that's true then the editorial positions they took that you mention above are consistent with their general political philosophical outlook.

Well that was partly my point: I was highlighting its liberalism for the next time I hear how the left "have the Guardian", ha.

[Leftbehind]

1. Corbyn
----
2. Burnham
3. Cooper
----- <- muhdemocracy
4. Kendall

1. Watson
-----
2. Creasy
-----
3. Eagle
----- <- muhdemocracy
4. Flint
5. Bradshaw

A 'New Labour' revolt in the event of Corbyn victory (assuming it would be based upon the fact that Corbyn won) would surely show to the party and to the public their hatred of democracy. The same would be true of the Left if they were to react that way to Kendall victory, though it is worth noting that the likes of Benn, Corbyn and Skinner didn't choose to form their own party in 1994, or even whine that much, frankly. Blair was brought down not by the Left but by the Brownite Right. 

I don't even have a problem with Corbyn. I'm just sick of the over-zealous facebook comments about people who think him winning would turn Britain into some sort of political paradise

Now you know how many of us on the left feel about Blair's gaggle of arselickers. Only Labour election winner evah!

The thing is Corbyn does hold some positions very dear to me. Unilateral disarmament, a genuine loathing of the arms trade, completely comprehensive education, pro-Palastine, huge animal rights supporter, a republian and (supporters aside) a member of the True Left that isn't annoying, self-defeating or a gigantic prick. But I have no doubt (and I hope I'm wrong if such a thing happened) the PLP would implode in bickering and stupidity. It's all very disturbing. Hunt and Ummuna currently feeding stories to the press in anticipation.

Well if the Right want to conclusively prove they can't share, then let them. That'd doom the party far more than an unsuccessful Corbyn attempt. We're not here to serve them.

[Leftbehind]

Finally, to all our Corbyn fans - the guy appears to be a homeopathy nut. So, err, there's that.

It's a weird peculiarity of the SCG, I remember wtfing at the time at the list. Still, homeopathy support comes nowhere near in dampening any enthusiasm for him or his policies.

[Leftbehind]

Status: SHEER F**KING DELIGHT.

[Leftbehind]

Wow ... they really don't want to win in 2020 do they?

Right now it looks as though a dustbin painted red would be doing decently if it were the designated Left candidate.

Ey, you know where you are with it.

[Leftbehind]

I think it's been exaggerated. He and his wife reportedly had issues, perhaps even seperated before that bone of contention.

Can someone explain the deputy leadership candidates to me?

Let's just put it this way, as I'm going to bed:-

Left: Watson - Creasey - Eagle - Flint - Bradshaw :Right

Watson's not particularly left-wing, but a bit bolshy, strong union links and hates Murdoch so the Left are more than happy to have him. Creasey seems like the new left to Watson's old left persona - more professional, tackles issues like loan sharks and feminist/social liberalism concerns. Eagle, seems like a Brownite to me, Flint a definite Blairite and Bradshaw even more so.

I'll leave it to others to expand/correct.

[Leftbehind]

Now heading into self-parody territory

Hoping for Poale Zion endorsement?

Honestly, with this field, Poale Zion would likely endorse Corbyn. At least the left bloc would.

Speaking of which, I read the haaretz synopsis of this, and Corbyn was... surprisingly reasonable. I was expecting more of a fire and brimstone, Gallowayesque approach.

Other question: why is Corbyn single-handedly destroying this field without even trying, while Abbott just fizzled out last time around? Is he just a better candidate?

I trust Abbott to vote earnestly & left-wing, but I don't trust her to persuade anyone to follow her. A bit too waffley and philosophical (Corbyn can sometimes get like this, but thankfully not as much recently).

Creasy is actually very strongly Right aligned.

Thanks for the correction, I think I was simply going off left-wingers (who I now presume to be inordinately concerned with identity politics) predicting her to be the next best thing - I can now understand why I didn't see why.

Watson is the favourite of the Old Labour Right (Labour First).

I should've really said Old Labour and not Old Left, because I didn't mean to suggest he's left-wing. But there's no denying a lot on the left find common cause with him (his resignation probably helped matters on that front too).

Yeah, I was under the impression MPs had the final say. That's why I expected Burnham would still win no matter what.

There really is a chance Corbyn could win though. It's not totally hypothetical playtime stuff.

Actually one of the great things about OMOV. I must admit however, I was dead set against its enactment since I predicted that MPs would screen out any left-wing candidate (and they probably will from now on, which makes it all the more important he wins now and if nothing else enact further democracy in the party).

[Leftbehind]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33625612

In summary: "I hate a large proportion of the membership and I hate democracy on general!" The female Labour ex-Leftists do tend to be among the most obxious people in the party. Beckett, Harman, Hewitt, Hodge.

Needless to say, it has begun.

Ex-adviser to Tony Blair John McTernan had said MPs who "lent" their nominations to Mr Corbyn to "broaden the debate" were "morons".

Recently brought on to work for Jim Murphy for his 2015 election campaign.  Clearly the man knows success.

[Leftbehind]

8. Labour Party members are really pretty left wing

Fair enough if he's using how they self-identify, but those policy statements overwhelmingly agreed to would attract even moderate social democrats.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/23/just-one-in-20-corbyn-supporters-tell-yougov-lab-poll-that-the-chances-of-him-winning-ge20-was-a-key-factor/

Very interesting chart. It suggests that it will be difficult for the others to chip away at the 43% (if Corbyn is indeed doing that well). In fact at this point Corbyn probably has more potential for gains from the others than they do from him.

I'm hoping for some more polls to confirm such a lead, particularly in view of the welfare vote.

[Leftbehind]

Corbyn?
Are you serious?
The situation is even worse than where I left it a month ago...

Could be a lot worse - we could have Renzi.

[Leftbehind]

Quite a supportive tone in today's LabourList article by Eagle for Corbyn (well, what currently stands for support). I wonder if Watson distances himself from Corbyn (I don't believe he will, but still) that she'd be in the running for deputy.

[Leftbehind]

Heh, the guy who threatened to smother me with a pillow is back.

'Threatened'. Had to Google it because I forgot a quip I made over two years ago. Stay bonkers, Sanchez.

[Leftbehind]

I definitely think the "affiliated supporter" idea was a stupid one; it's going to lead to entryism no matter how good your checks.

Perhaps, but I've no doubt that this wouldn't have been an issue if Corbyn hadn't have been in the running. Let's not forget, that in the YouGov poll, the pre-2015 Labour members had Corbyn on 49.2% to Burnham's 50.8%. So all this talk of entryism & "longstanding members in danger of getting trumped" really does begin to sound like sour grapes from people who can't bare the thought that Labour members might elect a socialist.

At least he's moved on from attempting to slur Corbyn as overseeing child abuse.

[Leftbehind]

https://mobile.twitter.com/corbynjokes

Love how all the Blairites usually found whingeing at being called Tories & the supposed hostility of Corbyn supporters can be found retweeting stuff like this and McTernan comments.

Although it was nice of Rentoul to admit he'd rather have had Cameron than Miliband in May last night. I mean, he's probably said that before in one of his columns. but no one can be expected to read them and this would've granted his views far more exposure. 

Speaking of interviews, Prescott has been cracking me up of late.

[Leftbehind]

I must admit that at the time I had paid those bloody 2€ to vote for Montebourg in the first round, just to show the other candidates that there were a few of us who still expected some vaguely left-wing things from them. Deception and disappointment ensued. No need to say I didn't bother choosing between Aubry and Hollande in the runoff.

I think a lot of us on the Left kidded ourselves on a bit on how much Ed would steer left (although tbh, with David being the main contender it was easy to spot the differences), so that deception and disappointment has already happened and I think largely why Burnham's (apparently) not being given the same benefit of doubt.

[Leftbehind]

Oh,so now the issue with Ed Miliband is that he wasn't left wing enough?

Aren't you the arch Blairite? I'm sure you can't possibly entertain the thought. Miliband didn't inspire the left anti-austerity vote, nor attract the Very Serious liberals who might be tempted not to vote Tory if given enough of a right-wing platform. In many ways hamstrung by trying to keep party unity and quite reasonably believing an unpopular Tory government, alongside splits in their right flank, could allow him to return on an offer of restraint was his undoing.

Still, this leadership campaign has shown him in a good light if anything.

[Leftbehind]

The other thing to consider is that the Shadow Cabinet are still elected by the PLP right?

No. But the SCG still has that silly self-denying ordinance from the 1980s in place which automatically removes membership from the SCG to MPs who accept frontbench posts. Not that the SCG is all that there is on the Left in the PLP (far from it), but that fact does complicate things.

Mind you, I suspect that Corbyn is intelligent enough to know that going with a factional ShadCab would be bloody stupid even if he'd presumably appoint one with an overall left lean.

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There would have to be considerable give and take on both sides. Firstly because Corbyn The Candidate is a little different to Corbyn The Backbencher (i.e. if he wins he could certainly claim an internal mandate for hard Left economic positions, but not for his other stances as he's barely mentioned them and when he has has played them down), and secondly because a serial rebel might find it hard to impose their will absolutely on the PLP.

To be fair, Corbyn was loyal 75% of the time to New Labour. If the PLP could muster up that loyalty to a SCG shadow cabinet (ie as isolated as the SCG have been in the New Labour years), then I'd be amazed.

I think he's made it plain that he's going to include the spectrum of Labour, a SCG shadow cabinet would only arise if the PLP are refusing participation...which I obviously want to see.

[Leftbehind]

I also neglected to mention Benn, of course, who was nuts.

Rates Ben Bradshaw but classes Benn as nuts.

Rates Ben Bradshaw.

Classes Benn as nuts.

...

[Leftbehind]

Speaking of which, if I did have to name one major disappointment from Corbyn for me is his support for FPTP.

In no sane, working electoral system, should ViaActiva and I be even thinking of voting for the same party.

[Leftbehind]

Here's the thing though: even were there PR the Labour Party would doubtless remain the massive heterogeneous thing that it is because almost every faction regards itself as the true guardians of its pure and noble tradition etc.

I don't think in the darkest days of New Labour, they've have been able to stop it. 2005 GE for instance, might not have seen defections from any sitting MPs but a sizeable exodus of Labour from voters disgusted with Blair by that point (likely those heading to Kennedy) towards a leftist party, enough to elect a number of MPs. I think that's one of the reasons why the Right in the party are conducting themselves the way they are presently - they've gotten used to the dominance and outraged now it's being challenged.

Well my MP told me that Corbyn would get kicked out by Christmas, and he'd struggle to find anyone worth while to serve in his cabinet-in all fairness my MP's an arch Blairite who supports Kendall but he says there's complete depression in the PLP.

The problem is that Corbyn has rebelled on something like 105 times, I mean I understand voting against Iraq/Tuition Fees/90 day detention but Corbyn rebelled so many times that he's digging himself in an even further ditch. Combined with the fact the PLP have become pretty factional since 1997 it's going to be a struggle.

The only issue, is that the PLP can't simply kick Corbyn out as they'd like to. Even as someone on the 'soft right' of the party such as myself sees that as awful now.

And yeah, I think Jarvis has been crowned as the next leader

As I said, he's afforded New Labour 75% loyalty, it'll be ridiculous - and deeply damaging - if the PLP are seen to be unable to muster the same loyalty as "the most rebellious MP", overriding the party memberships wishes.