Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 16, 2014, 05:12:06 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  110th Congress Stats
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: 110th Congress Stats  (Read 2678 times)
Easter Bushie
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21822
Kenya


View Profile
« on: May 01, 2005, 08:49:22 pm »
Ignore

What will be the statistics of the 110th Congress?

Current Stats of 109th Congress:

Senate:

R: 55
D: 44
I:    1

House:

R: 233
D: 201
I:      1
Logged

You are that rare species: a Bible-thumpin' Liberal.
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15634


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2005, 08:50:45 pm »
Ignore

I don't know
Logged

Brian Schweitzer '16
Easter Bushie
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21822
Kenya


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2005, 08:52:22 pm »
Ignore

My Predictions:

Senate:

R: 53 (-2)
D: 47 (+3, including Jim Jeffords Seat)

House:[/b}

R: 229 (-4)
D: 205 (+4)
I: † † †1 (+0)
Logged

You are that rare species: a Bible-thumpin' Liberal.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51165


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2005, 09:02:17 pm »
Ignore

Absolute worst case scenario for the GOP in the Senate:

- GOP doesn't pick up any seats
- Dems pick up RI, PA, VA, MT, MO
- Sanders (I) - VT sits with the Dems

Republicans - 50
Democrats - 50 (including Independent Bernie Sanders)

Control stays with the GOP because of VP (Senate President) Cheney.

House:

Not sure. I don't see any major losses for either party.

Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2005, 09:06:16 pm »
Ignore

Senate:

R: 52
D: 47
I:    1

House:
R:  224
D:  211
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18732
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2005, 09:20:52 pm »
Ignore

I predict GOP losses in the House, only on the level of 5 or so. In the Senate, right now this is how I see the close seats:

MN: Slight Democrat
PA: Slight Democrat
RI: Lean RINO
MO: Lean GOP
FL: Lean Democrat
MT: Slight GOP
VA: Lean GOP, if Warner runs Slight GOP
WI: Lean Democrat
NM: Lean Democrat
MI: Lean Democrat
WA: Lean Democrat

That leaves us with a Democrat pickup, so Senate 54-45-1
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13658
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2005, 09:38:26 pm »
Ignore

WA: Lean Democrat

Unless Rossi or Dunn change their minds, you can put "Safe Democrat."
Logged

Jake
dubya2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18732
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2005, 09:42:56 pm »
Ignore

Any race that either party has a remote chance in I listed as lean.
Logged
nini2287
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6644


Political Matrix
E: 2.77, S: -3.39

P

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2005, 09:57:43 pm »
Ignore

I'm goign to say:
Senate
R-53
D-46
I-1 (Sanders)

House
R-228
D-207
Logged


Erc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4685
Slovenia


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2005, 12:12:03 am »
Ignore

Of the Senate seats up for grabs, I only see the following as mildly competitive:

Burns (R-MT): Schweitzer's in Helena, so Burns holds this.
Nelson (D-NE): Nelson should lose, but with Johanns in Washington...
Nelson (D-FL): Nelson should lose, but I don't see anyone beating him atm.
Open (DFL-MN): Who knows?
Stabenow (D-MI): Dem hold
Open (R-TN): Rep hold
Open (D-MD): Hard to say.  Leans Dem atm.
Open/Corzine (D-NJ): Republican pickup.
Chafee (R-RI): Hard to say.
Santorum (R-PA): Democratic pickujp.

And the following, given certain candidates:

Kohl (D-WI): given Tommy Thompson
Allen (R-VA): given Mark Warner
Conrad (D-ND): given Hoeven.

So I'll guess:

Senate: R 56 D 43 I 1
House:  Who knows.  Republican majority (duh).
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26558
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2005, 02:03:25 am »
Ignore

Absolute worst case scenario for the GOP in the Senate:

- GOP doesn't pick up any seats
- Dems pick up RI, PA, VA, MT, MO
- Sanders (I) - VT sits with the Dems

Republicans - 50
Democrats - 50 (including Independent Bernie Sanders)

Control stays with the GOP because of VP (Senate President) Cheney.


Phil, if the GOP does that bad in the Senate, Collins will likely pull at least a Jeffords and go Independent to save her political hide when she runs for reelection in 2009 and thus give the Senate Majority Leader Reid by a 50 to 49 vote with 1 abstaining, or possibly even do a full party switch and become a Democrat.  I don't expect that happening, tho.  If the 2006 elections were held today, I'd expect at most a 2 seat change in the Senate, and despite all the sound and fury over Social Security and judicial nominations, I don't expect an issue to come up that would produce a major shift either way.
Logged

Daily Reflections on the Revised Common Lectionary

Bible thumping kept to a minimum unless you go to sleep!
The below comic stars me!
farewell
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58527
India


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2005, 02:22:25 am »
Ignore

Collins? No, I don't think so.
Logged

I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
A18
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23836
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2005, 05:31:47 am »
Ignore

Current Stats of 109th Congress:

House:

R: 233
D: 201
I:      1

Current House makeup is actually 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, and 1 Independent.

As for predictions, well, it's a little early, but...

I guess the Senate will be about GOP 57, Dem 42, Ind 1. House goes 235 GOP, Dem 200.
Logged
ian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2489


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: -1.39

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2005, 12:21:10 pm »
Ignore

Senate:

R: 53
D: 46
I:† † 1

Possible pickups in PA, MT.  Loss of NJ.  I'll say we keep the rest, but that's an incredibly optimistic prediction.
Logged

WHY I'M A DEMOCRAT:
"People who wear Christ on their sleeves and vote against helping people are the biggest hypocrites." - Charlie Melancon, in response to the voting down of the Melancon Amendment to raise levee funding.

For my positions on political issues go to:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=18844.msg405414#msg405414

Registered in Mississippi for fantasy politics.  RL resident of Arkansas.  Kentucky avatar for my fav state!
A18
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23836
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2005, 03:35:51 pm »
Ignore

Just for fun I'll make some random numbers up for other Congresses as well: Smiley

2006 Senate: R 57, D 42, I 1
2006 House: R 235, D 200

2008 Senate: R 59, D 40, I 1
2008 House: R 240, D 195
2008 President: 1988-esque GOP victory

2010 Senate: R 57, D 42, I 1
2010 House: R 225, D 210

2012 Senate: R 61, D 38, I 1
2012 House: R 245, D 190
2012 President: GOP landslide

2014 Senate: R 63, D 36, I 1
2014 House: D 220, R 215

2016 Senate: R 60, D 39, I 1
2016 House: D 225, R 210
2016 President: 1988-esque Democratic victory

2018 Senate: R 64, D 35, I 1
2018 House: R 250, D 185

2020 Senate: R 65, D 34, I 1
2020 House: R 240, D 195
2020 President: Democratic landslide
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2005, 03:38:15 pm »
Ignore

Just for fun I'll make some random numbers up for other Congresses as well: Smiley

2006 Senate: R 57, D 42, I 1
2006 House: R 235, D 200

2008 Senate: R 59, D 40, I 1
2008 House: R 240, D 195
2008 President: 1988-esque GOP victory

2010 Senate: R 57, D 42, I 1
2010 House: R 225, D 210

2012 Senate: R 61, D 38, I 1
2012 House: R 245, D 190
2012 President: GOP landslide

2014 Senate: R 63, D 36, I 1
2014 House: D 220, R 215

2016 Senate: R 60, D 39, I 1
2016 House: D 225, R 210
2016 President: 1988-esque Democratic victory

2018 Senate: R 64, D 35, I 1
2018 House: R 250, D 185

2020 Senate: R 65, D 34, I 1
2020 House: R 240, D 195
2020 President: Democratic landslide

That's some powerful crack.
Logged
A18
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23836
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2005, 03:40:45 pm »
Ignore

Mkay
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1179


Political Matrix
E: 0.51, S: -9.21

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2005, 05:33:50 pm »
Ignore

My prediction

R: 53
D: 46
I: 1

~

R: 223
D: 212

No independent anymore.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31966
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2005, 05:46:27 pm »
Ignore

Like Erc, I expect a GOP pickup in the Senate.

I would expect a 3-4 loss GOP in the House.

Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
nick
nickshepDEM
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6927


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2005, 05:53:00 pm »
Ignore

Senate: 

Republican:  53
Democrat:    46
Independet:  1

House:

No idea.  I have'nt looked into it very much, yet.
Logged
nick
nickshepDEM
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6927


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2005, 05:56:12 pm »
Ignore

The problem for the Democrats is, Everything is going wrong for the GOP too far away from 2006.  If this nuclear option mess, and Bush's push for SS privitization was happending closer to the 2006 election the Democrats could make out very well.  I think most of this "bad" news will be irrelevant by the 2006 midterms.  Actually the tides may turn.  We may be withdrawing troops from Iraq, more "Mission Accomplished" signs, etc... which will only help the GOP.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2005, 05:59:56 pm by nickshepDEM »Logged
Jake
dubya2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18732
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2005, 05:58:07 pm »
Ignore

We will be withdrawing troops by late 2006. It's only a question of how many.
Logged
No more McShame
FuturePrez R-AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1092


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2005, 01:36:53 am »
Ignore

Here's how I see the 2006 Senate:

MT: Toss-up.† MT Dems seem to have it together enough to give Burns a good run.

RI: Chafee should hold this seat.† Strong Lean Republican.

NJ: Given that Corzine becomes gov.† Kean should be a strong Rep candidate.† Slight lean Republican

MN: Toss-up. Maybe a very slight lean for the Dems. Could depend on national electorate's mood.

TN: Strong lean Republican

VT: Strong lean Independent

FL: Lean Dem.† Don't see the Repub emerging to knock off Nelson

NE: Strong lean Dem.† See Florida.

PA: Lean Dem.† Casey is Santorum's nightmare candidate.† He better hope for a pro-choice 3rd party.

MD: I'll say lean Dem until the primary starts shaping up.† Mfume vs Steele is a toss-up.† Cardin vs Steele is strong lean for the Dems.† Cardin vs any other R is safe Dem

MI: Strong lean Dem.† Who's going to knock Stabenow off?

MO:† Strong lean Repub.† Talent has numbers here.

Safe for party in power except for right candidate
VA: Allen (R-I) vs Warner (D) very slight Rep lean
WV: Only if Byrd retires.
WA: Cantwell (D-I) vs Dunn (R) lean Dem
NY: Clinton (D-I) vs Guiliani (R) we can hope right?
ND: Conrad (D-I) vs Hoeven (R) toss-up
TX: If Hutch runs for Gov still strong Rep lean but open seats are unpredictible.
WI: Kohl (D-I) vs Thompson (R) slight Dem lean


For jdb only
AZ: Kyl vs Grijuvila† LOL Tongue

My best guess Dems gain 1 (win PA & MT, lose NJ)
Rep: 54
Dem: 45
Ind: 1
Logged

Political Compass
Economic Left/Right: 7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.31

My political view's summarized
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26558
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2005, 02:39:55 am »
Ignore

Collins? No, I don't think so.

If Chafee can't hold onto RI in 2006, then it will indicate that New England will have joined the rest of the country in voting for Senators based on national rather than local politics, and have done so emphatically enough to bounce Republican incumbents with a proven trak record on the issues for the sole reason of being a national Republican.  In that atmosphere, Collinsí only hope of being re-elected in 2008 is to depart the GOP and become an Independent or a Democrat.  She probably would go the independent route since New Englanders are used to and have shown a willingness to support such candidates, and I donít think that at the level of Maine politics that she would be a comfortable fit with the Dems.
Logged

Daily Reflections on the Revised Common Lectionary

Bible thumping kept to a minimum unless you go to sleep!
The below comic stars me!
○∙◄☻•tπ[╪AV┼cVÍ└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30563


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2005, 03:08:40 am »
Ignore

Here's how I see the 2006 Senate:

MT: Toss-up.  MT Dems seem to have it together enough to give Burns a good run.

RI: Chafee should hold this seat.  Strong Lean Republican.

NJ: Given that Corzine becomes gov.  Kean should be a strong Rep candidate.  Slight lean Republican

MN: Toss-up. Maybe a very slight lean for the Dems. Could depend on national electorate's mood.

TN: Strong lean Republican

VT: Strong lean Independent

FL: Lean Dem.  Don't see the Repub emerging to knock off Nelson

NE: Strong lean Dem.  See Florida.

PA: Lean Dem.  Casey is Santorum's nightmare candidate.  He better hope for a pro-choice 3rd party.

MD: I'll say lean Dem until the primary starts shaping up.  Mfume vs Steele is a toss-up.  Cardin vs Steele is strong lean for the Dems.  Cardin vs any other R is safe Dem

MI: Strong lean Dem.  Who's going to knock Stabenow off?

MO:  Strong lean Repub.  Talent has numbers here.

Safe for party in power except for right candidate
VA: Allen (R-I) vs Warner (D) very slight Rep lean
WV: Only if Byrd retires.
WA: Cantwell (D-I) vs Dunn (R) lean Dem
NY: Clinton (D-I) vs Guiliani (R) we can hope right?
ND: Conrad (D-I) vs Hoeven (R) toss-up
TX: If Hutch runs for Gov still strong Rep lean but open seats are unpredictible.
WI: Kohl (D-I) vs Thompson (R) slight Dem lean


For jdb only
AZ: Kyl vs Grijuvila  LOL Tongue

My best guess Dems gain 1 (win PA & MT, lose NJ)
Rep: 54
Dem: 45
Ind: 1


RI, NJ, and TN are all looking much better for the Democrats than that. I'd say RI is weak lean Democrat, NJ is lean Democrat, and TN is lean Republican.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines