I change my mind. Steele is going to run...

[Moooooo]

I change my mind.  Steele is going to run, and he might pull this thing off.  Read the article below.  This guy makes some very solid points.

From The Gazette:

 Darn, only 85 weeks left until Maryland's U.S. Senate election. That doesn't leave us much time to speculate. This week's burning question: Will Lt. Gov. Mike Steele run for the U.S. Senate? The answer, yes, and here's why:

Pressure from Washington

National Republicans were pleased in 2002 when, for the first time in 36 years, Maryland elected a Republican governor. Defeating a Kennedy made it even sweeter. But what the national party really cares about is control of the federal government and now, amazingly, the Republicans have a shot at a traditionally Democratic U.S. Senate seat.

Currently, Republicans hold 55 Senate seats, a majority but not the 60 needed to invoke cloture. And even the "nuclear option," changing Senate rules to eliminate Democratic filibusters, is one vote shy of passage because six Republicans are blocking the necessary majority vote. The RNC thinks it can pick off some red state Democratic senators next year, but a Republican replacing Paul Sarbanes would be the Holy Grail.

That's why the White House is begging Mike Steele to run. All he has to do is say "yes" and unlimited money and troops will pour into Maryland.

Pressure from the governor

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, Steele for U.S. Senate helps Gov. Bob Ehrlich's re-election bid. First, all that RNC big money and muscle flooding Maryland to elect Steele lifts Ehrlich, too. Every Steele vote is a likely Ehrlich vote.

Second, a hotly contested U.S. Senate race distracts the media from its anti-Ehrlich jihad. Did you catch Sunday's Style section spread in the Washington Post? A newspaper that pays scant attention to Maryland politics suddenly runs a two-page hatchet job on the Republican governor? Wow, even Nixon didn't draw that kind of venom from the Post.

Third, moving Steele to U.S. Senate on Ehrlich's ticket opens up the lieutenant governor's spot for an equally attractive running mate such as state superintendent of schools Nancy Grasmick, a well-respected Democrat. "Ehrlich, Grasmick, Steele" touches a lot of bases.

Governor Steele, not

The U.S. Senate is Mike Steele's big chance because the likelihood of Steele becoming governor is nil. No lieutenant governor has ever been elected governor of Maryland because, after eight years, "administration fatigue" sets-in and voters look for new leadership.

That's why only two U.S. vice presidents have successfully succeeded their running mates into the White House (Martin Van Buren in 1836 and George Bush in 1988). In both cases they rode the coattails of wildly popular presidents, Jackson and Reagan, and in both cases they were defeated after a single term.

Frankly, Steele's chances of winning the U.S. Senate seat are as good, if not better, than his chances of being re-elected lieutenant governor with Ehrlich.

Steele can win

Republicans only win in Maryland when the Democrats hopelessly divide their party or when Democrats nominate an unelectable candidate (George Mahoney, KKT). And that's where the Democrats are headed in 2006.

The Democratic gubernatorial primary is going to split the party along geographic lines; the Baltimore area (O'Malley) versus the D.C. suburbs (Duncan) while the U.S. Senate primary is going to divide the party along racial lines; blacks (Kweisi Mfume) versus whites (Ben Cardin). Yes, Ben's putting out the word, he's in. Steele, who won't have a tough primary, matches up well against either Mfume or Cardin.

Mfume can only win the Democratic primary by inspiring a massive black voter turnout. Political pundits who say blacks don't vote are measuring black turnout only in elections featuring white candidates. When an attractive black runs for office, blacks turn out in droves.

For instance, Kurt Schmoke's victory for state's attorney in the 1982 primary election saw a 55.5 percent Baltimore city voter turn-out, sixth highest in the state. So many blacks voted in Baltimore that Schmoke won before the first white vote was even counted. By comparison, Montgomery had only a 39.7 percent turnout and Prince George's had 45.7 percent (the state's average turn-out in that election was only 48.4 percent).

Likewise, when Jesse Jackson ran for president in 1984 and 1988 he carried Baltimore and P.G. by landslide margins. Since then, blacks (who vote Democratic 9 to 1) have swelled from 23 percent to 28 percent of Maryland's total population.

But Mfume's race-based appeal is bound to leave many white Democrats asking, "Do I really want my two U.S. senators to be Barbara Mikulski and Kweisi Mfume?" To them, Mike Steele may look good in the general election.

Conversely, if Cardin defeats Mfume, will black Democrats vote for Cardin in the general election? More likely, they'll stay home just as they did in 1988 when, after Jesse Jackson's defeat, blacks abstained from voting and Maryland went for Bush/Quayle with the lowest voter turnout since 1924.

Heck, if Mfume loses the primary, a lot of disgruntled black Democrats might even cast a race-based protest vote for Mike Steele helping elect Maryland's first black U.S. senator, albeit a Republican.

To guard against this, the Democrats are bound to highlight Steele's pro-life sentiments and try turning the U.S. Senate race into a referendum on "abortion rights."

So many political angles, so little time.

[Moooooo]

Remember my worry meter from a previous thread?  Well, its up to about 25... and rising.

[Keystone Phil]

I said it once before and I'll say a) he announces he won't run or b) he loses the General...

 Steele for Senate!

[Moooooo]

I said it once before and I'll say a) he announces he won't run or b) he loses the General...

 Steele for Senate!

I dont get it.  Your saying he will do one of the following... Not run, or lose.  Then you say Steele for Senate.

[Keystone Phil]

I said it once before and I'll say a) he announces he won't run or b) he loses the General...

 Steele for Senate!

I dont get it.  Your saying he will do one of the following... Not run, or lose.  Then you say Steele for Senate.

I believe he'll run but if he decides against it, I won't being saying it anymore. I'll also be forced to stop saying it if he loses.   

I realized that I should have added an "unless" he doesn't run or loses in that statement.

[AuH2O]

This is a longer and better version of what I've been saying. The Democratic primary looks like it's going to be divisive and there's still time for it to get worse (other candidates entering).

The idea you can magically dominate the black vote on the basis of abortion is fairly hilarious... as if blacks are Democrats because of abortion. Please. Go to a NOW convention and count the blacks.

Thus, Steele is a no joke matchup even for Cardin, who is competent but a little long in the tooth and not very inspiring.

It still leans Dem-- but 'lean' being the key word.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't think the article is saying that blacks care particularly about abortion.  I think it's saying that the Democrats will try to emphasize abortion among all voters because Dems and Independents in Maryland are pretty overwhelmingly pro-choice.  They will use the issue to downplay race, and pick-up whatever black votes they lose among (for example) white moderates in Montgomery and Baltimore County.

[Moooooo]

Good thing Ehrlich and the GOP wont be able to get a GayMarriage initiative on the ballot.

[Moooooo]

Ill take Cardin over Steele all day long, but Im beginning to realize that this race could be close, very close.

[Moooooo]

I don't think the article is saying that blacks care particularly about abortion.  I think it's saying that the Democrats will try to emphasize abortion among all voters because Dems and Independents in Maryland are pretty overwhelmingly pro-choice.  They will use the issue to downplay race, and pick-up whatever black votes they lose among (for example) white moderates in Montgomery and Baltimore County.

Thats the way I interpreted it, too.

[AuH2O]

Well, the main question regarding race is black turnout IMO. Steele WILL get more of the black vote than Republicans normally do, and the gap might be rather large given the low starting point. BUT, he will still lose the black vote. So a secondary issue is turnout-- and I think he wins here also, as blacks certainly won't be mobilized against him.

He can win, make no mistake.

[Akno21]

A few questions, regarding Mfume

1. What percentage of Marylanders would vote Democrat no matter who they ran?

2. How much would the black vote go up if Mfume ran as the (D) nominee for Senate?

3. Would Steele's strength with the black vote be eliminated completely, back to normal, white v. white, if Mfume ran?

[Moooooo]

A few questions, regarding Mfume

1. What percentage of Marylanders would vote Democrat no matter who they ran?

2. How much would the black vote go up if Mfume ran as the (D) nominee for Senate?

3. Would Steele's strength with the black vote be eliminated completely, back to normal, white v. white, if Mfume ran?

1.)  No Democrat will pull less than 45% of the vote.  To be honest I cant remember the last time a Democrat received less than 45% of the vote in a statewide race.

2.)  It would probably stay the same, except they (Af-Americans) would come out in much larger numbers for Mfume, IMO.  Ehh, it may go up 1 or 2%.

3.)   Yes.  Stelle may do a little better, but not much.  Acutally, the Baltimore Sun poll that was recently released showed that Steele garners about the same support as Ehrlich from Af-Americans.

[Akno21]

So, at worse, Mfume gets 46%.

Now, if Cardin defeats Mfume in the primary, how much would Cardin's Afro-American support go down? (I remember reading that Dukakis lost MD in part because Afro-Americans stayed home after Jackson didn't get the nomination)

[Moooooo]

So, at worse, Mfume gets 46%.

Now, if Cardin defeats Mfume in the primary, how much would Cardin's Afro-American support go down? (I remember reading that Dukakis lost MD in part because Afro-Americans stayed home after Jackson didn't get the nomination)

Could hurt a little, but Im almost positive that both O'Malley and Duncan will have prominent Af-American running mates.  That should help keep the African American base happy.

[Akno21]

So, at worse, Mfume gets 46%.

Now, if Cardin defeats Mfume in the primary, how much would Cardin's Afro-American support go down? (I remember reading that Dukakis lost MD in part because Afro-Americans stayed home after Jackson didn't get the nomination)

Could hurt a little, but Im almost positive that both O'Malley and Duncan will have prominent Af-American running mates.  That should help keep the African American base happy.

I'm not sure how prominent they could be, since Mfume is running for Senate, and I wouldn't see a congressman leave the House to run for Lt. Gov. It might have to be a state senator.

[Hitchabrut]

He is a hidden rising star and will possibly run.

[Moooooo]

I'm not sure how prominent they could be, since Mfume is running for Senate, and I wouldn't see a congressman leave the House to run for Lt. Gov. It might have to be a state senator.

My guess:

Glenn Ivey - States Attorney, Prince Georges County
http://www.glennivey.com/bio.asp

Anthony G. Brown - State House Whip
http://www.mdarchives.state.md.us/msa/mdmanual/06hse/html/msa02768.html

[Notre Dame rules!]

Steele would make a great Senator.  He's intelligent, he's articulate, and he doesn't have the scandal baggage that Mfume has.

[Moooooo]

Steele would make a great Senator.  He's intelligent, he's articulate, and he doesn't have the scandal baggage that Mfume has.

The only thing Steel lacks is... Experience.  Two and half years as Lt. Gov. is hardly a worthy resume.  Especially when you have a Democrat (Ben Cardin) running for the same seat who has served 20 years in Congress and 99% of his adult life as a public official.

[Moooooo]

Not much of a suprise, but Rep. Steny Hoyer endorsed Ben Cardin for Senate today.

[Akno21]

Not much of a suprise, but Rep. Steny Hoyer endorsed Ben Cardin for Senate today.

That's good, some momentum for Ben.

The Lt. Governor candidates you mentioned look good, especially since none of them are from Baltimore, which would help have Democrats from possibly all 3 major counties on the ballot. (Cardin/Mfume, Duncan, Ivey/Brown)

[Moooooo]

Oh yeah, Cardin and Mfume both have sites up.

www.bencardin.com
(Cardin's looks really nice)

http://www.mfumeforsenate.com/
(Mfume's looks half assed)