What if Gore won in 2000/what if Kerry won in 2004?

[RR1997]

What do you guys think Al Gore's presidency would've looked like if he had won in 2000?

I think that 9/11 would've hurt Gore (and Clinton) a lot. People would've blamed "Clinton-Gore" for being too weak/dovish on nation security/foreign policy issues.

People would've also blamed the 2001-2002 recession on "Clinton-Gore."

The war in Afghanistan still would've happened, but there is no war in Iraq.

The GOP would've won in a landslide during the 2002 midterms. The GOP's control over congress would've prevented Gore from passing anying like universal healthcare, and we'd get nothing done.

The GOP would've nominated someone who is known for being hawkish on foreign policy issues and "strong" on national security issues (like John McCain) in 2004. John McCain (or another hawk) would've won in 2004 in a semi-landslide.

 After that, the 2008 recession still happens, and McCain is blamed. Almost any Democrat would've defeated John McCain in a semi-landslide during the 2008 elections. I'm going to assume that the person the Dems nominated wouldn't have been Hillary, since Bill Clinton's reputation would've probably been destroyed if Gore won.

Overall, I don't think that much would change. Bill Clinton's and Al Gore's reputation would've been destroyed and there would've been no invasion of Iraq. These are the two biggest changes.

What if Kerry won in 2004 (assuming that Bush still won in 2000):

I think that Kerry would've been blamed for the 2008 recession, and almost any Republican would've won in a semi-landslide during the 2008. This Republican president resorts to more deregulation and austerity measures, and the economic downturn becomes worse. A Democrat wins in 2012.


What do you guys think?

[Ebsy]

The world would be a lot better place if Gore had won in 2000.

[NeverAgain]

The world would be a lot better place if Gore had won in 2000.

Gore did win in 2000. He just wasn't allowed in the White House.

[TNF]

Gore wins in 2000

- Assuming September 11th happens, Gore has a very short honeymoon period before the Republicans raise hell over 'the President that let America get attacked' and launch investigation after investigation, making the Clinton and Obama years look like child's play compared to whatever nutty conspiracy theories come out about Gore 'knowing' about the attacks beforehand, etc. If Gore gets the same memo Bush did 'Bin Laden determined to strike US' and ignores it, I'd expect him to be impeached by the Republican-controlled Congress if/when that comes out

- Gore probably invades Afghanistan in response to the attack, but probably stays for the long haul, not going off into Iraq like Bush did. This may mean bin Laden gets captured earlier, but it also may mean nothing really happens and Gore has nothing to show for it, which is probably going to be made worse by the barrage of attacks the administration is under for 'allowing' 9/11 to happen

- All of the anti-civil liberties stuff gets passed with full Democratic support, plus or minus Russ Feingold. Democrats don't pass anything because they don't have control of the House and then get their asses kicked in the 2002 midterms

- John McCain crushes Gore in 2004. He's a one termer on account of the financial crisis, which leads to the election of Hillary Clinton in 2008.


Kerry in 2004

- Kerry has no domestic agenda because Republicans control both houses of Congress.

- Kerry can't get the GOP to agree to a timetable on Iraq, but does get approval for a troop surge.

- Maybe pushes a few more resources to Afghanistan

- High gas prices = Republicans win big in 2006 midterms

- Economic crash in 2007 = President John McCain in 2008

[SingingAnalyst]

2004 McCain vs Gore

McCain 300 / 52%
Gore 238 / 47%

[SingingAnalyst]

Had Kerry won in 2004, we'd have reached our current (as of 5/16/2015) status with respect to SSM a few years earlier (Kerry was one of only 14 Senators to oppose DOMA in '96). Otherwise, few changes. He probably would have been re-elected in '08 and either Obama or Clinton in '12.

[Skill and Chance]

Gore: responds to 9/11 differently, as others have pointed out, probably loses in 2004 to McCain, who then collapses Hoover style in 2008.  The war in Iraq starts in 2005 instead of 2003.  The political environment today is otherwise quite similar to real life, with a Democratic president who accomplished a lot of progressive priorities during 2009-10 now in his/her second term with congressional gridlock since 2011.

Kerry: Changes are much more profound.  Kerry would presumably appoint a 5th liberal to the Supreme Court, which means Citizens United, etc. never happens.  Democrats would be wiped out in 2006 and 2008 when Kerry gets blamed for the economic crisis.  The next Republican is probably but not certainly a two termer, although Democrats get full control of congress by 2014.  There is probably a far left populist movement during the recession.  Maybe they reach Tea Party levels and start nominating single payer activists for senate in Alabama and Idaho?       

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627

Gore wins in 2000 by carrying Florida by 627 votes. Rumors persist of Democrat voter fraud in Miami-Dade and other urban areas. A recount confirms Gore's win but many (if not most) conservative Republicans are convinced that Gore stole the election and will never view him as legitimate. 

2001
- January CT Governor John Rowland appoints Chris Shays to the seat of Joe Lieberman, giving control of the Senate to the Republicans 51-49.

Gore's Major Cabinet Figures
Secretary of State: Richard Holbrooke
Secretary of Defense: Sam Nunn
Secretary of Treasury: Erskine Bowles
Attorney General: Eric Holder

- February-August No major legislation passes during the first sevens months of the Gore presidency. The budget stays balanced and some minor tax cuts are passed.

- September September 11 attacks (same as OTL). Congress passes the Patriot Act.

- October US invades Afghanistan in response to the attack.

- November Despite Gore's post 9/11 polling high, Democrats do worse than expected in the elections around the country.

Results
New Jersey Governor: Jim McGreevey (D) 56% vs. Bret Schundler (R) 42%
Virginia Governor: Mark Earley (Republican) 50% vs Mark Warner (D) 49%
New York Mayor: Michael Bloomberg (R) 50% Mark Green (D) 48%

- December Both sides prepare for 2002 with all the uncertainties it holds.

[bballrox4717]

President Gore would've been Carter-esque for the Dems. He had all of the middling third-wayism of Clinton without any of the swagger. Republicans would have hammered him and Clinton for 9/11, not invading Iraq, and not keeping the country safe. Gore likely loses independents by swinging to the left or alienates his base by moving even more to the right, and loses to McCain or Giuliani in a landslide. Gore's lack of tax cuts and no Iraq War keeps the budget deficit from exploding as much as it did, which benefits McCain in 2008 as the financial crisis is delayed enough that it doesn't effect the Republicans until after the election. Clinton defeats McCain's VP in 2012, and Governor Obama of Illinois (elected in 2010) is the likely favorite for 2020.

I have a hard time with President Kerry as well. I can't imagine him being able to roll back much of Bush's agenda with an unfriendly Congress, and he'd be blamed for the financial crisis. McCain probably beats him in 2008 too.

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627 - Part 2

2002
- January-June Gore and Lieberman lobby for the creation of a federal Department of Homeland Security and the TSA, but Republicans block such a bill believing that these are just excuses to create new government agencies.

- July-October Gore and the GOP leadership in Congress fight over how to balance the budget due to a bad economy and lowering revenues. Ultimately, both sides compromise. The budget has a small deficit and no taxes are increased. Gore is seen as the loser in the standoff and many liberal Democrats call for Paul Wellstone to challenge Gore in 2004. 

- November A bad economy and fears over Gore's handling of terrorism and the war in Afghanistan lead to a strong Republican victory in Congress.

Results
US Governors: Republican 32 (+5) Democrat 18 (-3) Independent 0 (-2)   
US Senate: Republican 55 (+4) Democrat 45 (-4)   
US House: Republican 335 (+14) Democrat 199 (-14) Independent 1

- December Republicans look at Gore as a vulnerable target and many candidates prepare to enter the race. liberal Democrats start looking for a candidate to replace Gore in 2004.   

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627 - Part 3

2003
-January-FebruaryThe new Republican Congress passes a 20% tax cut and passes a budget that is balanced by cutting domestic spending and increases spending on defense. President Gore vetos the bill. Congress fail to overturn the veto. Gore's approval drops to 40% as voters seem to side with the GOP on this issue. A compromise bill for a 10% tax cut ultimately passes, and a budget with a small deficit passes. Gore's approval with Democrats goes up, but drops with general electorate.      

-March-MayDennis Kucinich and Carol Moseley Braun enters the Democratic Primaries against Gore. Republicans line up to challenge Gore. Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush are the early front-runners.

-June-July

RCP Democratic Polling Average (June 1, 2003)
Pres Al Gore (TN)............................53%
Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)...11%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH).................5%
Undecided......................................31%

The large number of undecideds cause many to doubt Gore's chances of winning. Calls from Democrats emerge for him to step aside.

RCP Republican Polling Average (June 1, 2003)
Fmr Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)........33%
Gov Jeb Bush (FL).........................21%
Sen George Allen (VA).....................9%
Gov Bill Owens (CO)........................5%
Fmr Gov Tommy Thompson............5%
Sen Chuck Hagel (NE).....................4%
Sen Rick Santorum (PA)..................4%
Undecided.....................................23%

Giuliani and Bush are running on being most electable. Allen and Santorum are running as the "passionate conservative" alternatives.  Hagel, Owens, and Thompson are running as the "compassionate conservative" alternatives.

-August

Bush wins the Ames Straw Poll with 24%. Allen and Santorum are close behind. Thompson finishes forth and drops out of the race. Bush's lower than expected total makes him look weak.

RCP Democratic Polling Average (August 31, 2003)
Pres Al Gore (TN)............................58%
Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)....9%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH).................5%
Undecided......................................28%

Gore stabilizes his numbers but still is worried about Iowa.

RCP Republican Polling Average (August 31, 2003)
Fmr Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)........30%
Gov Jeb Bush (FL).........................18%
Sen George Allen (VA)...................10%
Sen Rick Santorum (PA)..................8%
Gov Bill Owens (CO)........................7%
Sen Chuck Hagel (NE).....................5%
Undecided.....................................22%

Santorum and Allen makes gains on Bush and Giuliani. Owens and Hagel are both hoping for an upset in New Hampshire.

[MATTROSE94]

To be honest, I can actually see a mirror image of what happened during George W. Bush's Presidency if Al Gore was elected in 2000 and reelected in 2004 (with the exception of the Bush Tax Cuts, the Invasion of Iraq and the results in the 2002-2008 Congressional elections). I also see John Kerry's term mirroring George W Bush's second term if he won in 2004 as well. In both scenarios, Mitt Romney/Rick Santorum (who would have been reelected in 2006 in the TL due to it being a far better year for the Republicans) would have been the Republican ticket in 2008 and easily defeated either Vice President Joe Leiberman or President John Kerry if all the events remained the same as they were in RL. In 2012, Mitt Romney would have been reelected over Hillary Clinton and the 2016 election would currently be shaping up to be between Vice President Rick Santorum and Barack Obama, who would be finishing up his second Senate term by now.

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627 - Part 4

2003
-September-December

Gore holds his lead through the fall but most undecideds swing towards Braun and Kucinich.   

RCP Democratic Polling Average (December 31, 2003)
Pres Al Gore (TN)............................52%
Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)...17%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH).................7%
Undecided......................................24%

George Allen make a racially charged gaffe on the campaign trail and drops like a stone. Santorum picks up the banner and by late December is tied for first in Iowa.

RCP Republican Polling Average (December 31, 2003)
Fmr Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)........31%
Gov Jeb Bush (FL).........................19%
Sen Rick Santorum (PA)................13%
Gov Bill Owens (CO)........................7%
Sen George Allen (VA).....................5%
Sen Chuck Hagel (NE).....................3%
Undecided.....................................22%

[Thunderbird is the word]

Gore 627 - Part 4

2003
-September-December

Gore holds his lead through the fall but most undecideds swing towards Braun and Kucinich.   

RCP Democratic Polling Average (December 31, 2003)
Pres Al Gore (TN)............................52%
Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)...17%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH).................7%
Undecided......................................24%

George Allen make a racially charged gaffe on the campaign trail and drops like a stone. Santorum picks up the banner and by late December is tied for first in Iowa.

RCP Republican Polling Average (December 31, 2003)
Fmr Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)........31%
Gov Jeb Bush (FL).........................19%
Sen Rick Santorum (PA)................13%
Gov Bill Owens (CO)........................7%
Sen George Allen (VA).....................5%
Sen Chuck Hagel (NE).....................3%
Undecided.....................................22%

Why isn't McCain running ITTL? Did he get appointed defense secretary in the Gore administration?

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627 - Part 4

2003
-September-December

Gore holds his lead through the fall but most undecideds swing towards Braun and Kucinich.   

RCP Democratic Polling Average (December 31, 2003)
Pres Al Gore (TN)............................52%
Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)...17%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH).................7%
Undecided......................................24%

George Allen make a racially charged gaffe on the campaign trail and drops like a stone. Santorum picks up the banner and by late December is tied for first in Iowa.

RCP Republican Polling Average (December 31, 2003)
Fmr Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)........31%
Gov Jeb Bush (FL).........................19%
Sen Rick Santorum (PA)................13%
Gov Bill Owens (CO)........................7%
Sen George Allen (VA).....................5%
Sen Chuck Hagel (NE).....................3%
Undecided.....................................22%

Why isn't McCain running ITTL? Did he get appointed defense secretary in the Gore administration?

Giuliani had most of the moderate Republicans already and there are still a lot of people who are angry at McCain from 2000.

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627 - Part 5

2004
-January 1-23

Braun wins D.C. Primary in a big upset over Gore.

Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)...46%
Pres Al Gore (TN)............................43%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH)...............11%

Gore wins Iowa, but with less than half the vote.  

Pres Al Gore (TN)............................49%
Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)...32%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH)...............19%

Santorum wins Iowa by a surprisingly strong margin over Bush.

Sen Rick Santorum (PA)................34%
Gov Jeb Bush (FL).........................26%
Fmr Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)........13%
Sen George Allen (VA)...................11%
Gov Bill Owens (CO)........................9%
Sen Chuck Hagel (NE).....................7%

Hagel and Allen dropout after their poor showings. In a surprise to many, both Allen and Hagel endorse Santorum, giving him a further surge going into New Hampshire.

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627 - Part 6

2004
-January 24-31

Gore wins New Hampshire, but again by a much smaller margin than he should have. Since the Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally, Gore needs to start winning by bigger margins to be sure of an early victory.  

Pres Al Gore (TN)............................50%
Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)...40%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH)...............10%

Giuliani suffers from a wave a negative ads from the Bush campaign while Owens benefits from the lack of attention by Bush.

On election day, there is a anti-Bush surge which causes Jeb to finish last behind even Santorum, who had been campaigning mostly in the South since Iowa.

Fmr Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)........29%
Gov Bill Owens (CO)......................27%
Sen Rick Santorum (PA)................22%
Gov Jeb Bush (FL).........................22%

Bush now aims to win South Carolina to save his campaign.

[Clark Kent]

Hypothetically, what if Bush wins the popular vote in 2004, like he did in real life, but barely loses Ohio and the electoral vote to Kerry? In that case, Bush would've won an election that he lost (2000) and lost an election that he won (2004).

[Mister Mets]

If Gore holds the White House from 2001-2005, and McCain takes over in 2005, will the great recession occur at the same timetable?

If the run on the banks doesn't happen on September 2008, A President McCain could easily get reelected.

[Kingpoleon]

If Kerry wins in 2004, he loses 2008.

John McCain/Rudy Guiliani, anyone?

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627 - Part 7

2004
-February 1-3

Braun leads in South Carolina for a time and only the day is it clear that Gore won South Carolina, but again by a much smaller margin than he should have. Braun gets a big boost out of this and many Democrats now openly call on Gore to drop out in favor of Vice President Lieberman or Congressman Gephardt.

Pres Al Gore (TN)............................48.6%
Fmr Sen Carol Moseley-Braun (IL)...48.3%
Rep Dennis Kucinich (OH).................3.1%

Bush and Santorum fight it out in the Palmetto State.

In the end, Santorum wins by a solid six points.

Sen Rick Santorum (PA)................40%
Gov Jeb Bush (FL).........................34%
Fmr Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)........14%
Gov Bill Owens (CO)......................12%

[Leinad]

If Kerry wins in 2004, he loses 2008.

John McCain/Rudy Guiliani, anyone?

I think that's fairly likely.

I'd guess:

Gore 2000:

Al Gore 2001-2005
John McCain 2005-2009
Barack Obama 2009-

Or, maybe:

Al Gore 2001-2009
Mitt Romney 2009-2013 (McCain lost in the general to Gore in 2004)
John Edwards? 2013- (Obama lost in the 2008 general)

Kerry 2004:

George W. Bush 2001-2005
John Kerry 2005-2009
John McCain 2009-2013
Barack Obama 2013-

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Both would probably serve just one term.

1. After 12 years of Democratic administration, there would be a substantial fatigue, costing Gore reelection.

2. Kerry would have become a victim of the recession. Recession, although might have been "not that bad" under someone else than Bush, would still have happened.

[Mr. Morden]

Kerry 2004:

George W. Bush 2001-2005
John Kerry 2005-2009
John McCain 2009-2013
Barack Obama 2013-

I don't know about McCain.  McCain 2008 was a weird phenomenon.  While he tried to run as the (sort of) establishment candidate for a while, it didn't really fit.  I think part of his ultimate success in the primaries came because there was a large mass of disaffected Republicans out there, who were disaffected in large part because of the failures of Bush.  If Kerry was president in 2008 rather than Bush, would McCain still have been able to pull it off?  I don't know about that.

In this alt-version of 2008, depending on what the political environment looked like, you may have seen a completely different cast of characters in the 2008 race, like Frist, Owens, Pawlenty…I don't know who would have won though.

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Gore 627 - Part 8

2004
-February 3-28

Just 3 days after South Carolina, six states cast their ballots.

DEMOCRATIC WINNERS
Gore.................6 (Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Oklahoma)
Braun...............0
Kucinich............0

Gore wins all six states with 60% or more in all the contests but one (NM).

REPUBLICAN WINNERS
Santorum.......4 (Arizona, Missouri, North Dakota, and Oklahoma)
Owens............1 (New Mexico)
Giuliani...........1 (Delaware)
Bush..............0

Santorum emerges as the clear winner of Mini-Tuesday and unites the conservative base of the party, as opposed to the divided moderate conservative vote between Bush, Owens, and Giuliani.

Bush drops out on February 5 without endorsing anybody.

On February 7, Gore wins Michigan with 61% and Washington with 54%.

Santorum wins the Michigan caucus by a wide margin and the Washington caucus by a small margin.

Gore does on to win Maine narrowly over Kucinich (45%-38%-17%) while easily wining Tennessee and Virginia. Braun wins DC and Kucinich wins Hawaii, while Gore wins Idaho Utah, and Wisconsin.

Giuliani wins Maine and DC and Santorum wins Nevada, Tennessee, and Virginia. Giuliani and Santorum have a showdown in Wisconsin where Giuliani pro-abortion record proves his downfall. Santorum bests Rudy by five points and builds needed momentum for Super Tuesday.