State Legislatures 1993-2017 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 01, 2024, 05:17:29 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  State Legislatures 1993-2017 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: State Legislatures 1993-2017  (Read 14378 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« on: October 07, 2017, 02:13:41 PM »

Democrats have to win close to 70% of the popular vote to get majorities in the WI state congress. It's just that lopsidedly gerrymandered.

That is why the gubernatorial elections are so important. This is going to have to be a multi-cycle effort, and fortunately for Democrats, 2018 leaves Republicans over-extended in Govs offices, with many term-limited. 2020 hopefully will give them an opportunity to build on that in a more limited number of states, such as Indiana, Missouri, etc.

If Democrats do well, they can have a much less painful round of redistricting in 2021-2022.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2017, 02:45:04 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2017, 02:46:35 PM by Virginia »

Yes, winning governorships in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio will not give Democrats control of redistricting in those states (the legislatures are way too gerrymandered), but it will give them a seat at the redistricting table where they can force fair congressional and legislative maps.  I've long said that fair maps in those states would almost automatically result in Democrats picking up six House seats.

Funny enough, because Democrats completely swept the state Supreme Court races in 2015, they now have control of the legislative redistricting process due the way PA handles those maps. The commission is bipartisan, but the Supreme Court picks the tie breaker. It's not guaranteed for Democrats, but with a 5-2 majority, it's about as good a shot as they will get. Further, if Governor Wolf holds on, that gives them veto power over anything they don't like, including Congressional maps. It might even be enough to force Republicans to give in to redistricting reform before 2021.

On top of that, there is another Republican-held state Supreme Court seat up in November, and the other one is up for a retention vote. Democrats could deepen their bench further to a 6-1 majority.

And if that wasn't good enough, there is a lawsuit being heard in PA state courts challenging the Congressional map I believe as a partisan gerrymander. It might be possible that the PA Supreme Court starts throwing out gerrymanders as a violation of their constitution. With such a big Democratic majority on the court, I'm feeling relatively good about that.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 12 queries.