State Legislatures 1993-2017

[Mr.Phips]

Very depressing. Thanks Obama.

This is the result of the DNC tearing down the 50 state strategy. That 2010 election is going to haunt Democrats for a long time, much like 1958 had affects for Republicans for decades. 

[Mr.Phips]

Thanks for putting this together.  It basically tells us that the McCain Democrats have finally been wiped out.  It's worth noting that much of this trend happened on maps that were influenced by and even outright controlled by Democrats.  As best I can tell, this is what control of redistricting looked like in 2001.  Note that the one Southern chamber where Democrats have managed to hold on reasonably well, the VA state senate, was drawn by Republicans in 2001.  Green is split control or a deal by the party in control, yellow is non-partisan, 60% shading means one-party control due to veto-proof majority or other special circumstances:

Clearly, redistricting isn't everything.  I fully expect that the bottom will fall out for the downballot GOP in a similar manner in the Bush-Obama states the next time Republicans have full federal control.  The realignment just isn't complete quite yet.

Well 2001 had a lot more "fair fight" maps than 2011 and Dems got lucky when the GOP drew a crummy map in.PA.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats have to win close to 70% of the popular vote to get majorities in the WI state congress. It's just that lopsidedly gerrymandered.

That is why the gubernatorial elections are so important. This is going to have to be a multi-cycle effort, and fortunately for Democrats, 2018 leaves Republicans over-extended in Govs offices, with many term-limited. 2020 hopefully will give them an opportunity to build on that in a more limited number of states, such as Indiana, Missouri, etc.

If Democrats do well, they can have a much less painful round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

Yes, winning governorships in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio will not give Democrats control of redistricting in those states (the legislatures are way too gerrymandered), but it will give them a seat at the redistricting table where they can force fair congressional and legislative maps.  I've long said that fair maps in those states would almost automatically result in Democrats picking up six House seats.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats have to win close to 70% of the popular vote to get majorities in the WI state congress. It's just that lopsidedly gerrymandered.

That is why the gubernatorial elections are so important. This is going to have to be a multi-cycle effort, and fortunately for Democrats, 2018 leaves Republicans over-extended in Govs offices, with many term-limited. 2020 hopefully will give them an opportunity to build on that in a more limited number of states, such as Indiana, Missouri, etc.

If Democrats do well, they can have a much less painful round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

Yeah. Those gubernatorial races in places like Florida, PA, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Virginia will go a long way towards making the chambers and congressional maps much more competitive.

Chambers that Dems should target for takeover prior to redistricting are:
VA Senate (this should be the easiest)
CO Senate
VA House (if they gained about ten seats or so this year it puts them in position for 2019)
FL Senate (Probably heaviest lift on this list. Would probably take good D years in 2018 and 2020)
MI House
MN Senate
NY Senate
NH House
NH Senate
ME Senate
CT Senate
AZ Senate

MN House

Surely Maine and New Hampshire are pretty low priority from a redistricting perspective since they only have 2 CDs each and thus little room for gerrymandering? 

AZ Senate doesn't matter for redistricting either do to the non-partisan commission.