State Legislatures 1993-2017

[smoltchanov]

Really great work. And, really, VERY depressing for partisan Democrats...

[smoltchanov]

Very depressing. Thanks Obama.

This is the result of the DNC tearing down the 50 state strategy. That 2010 election is going to haunt Democrats for a long time, much like 1958 had affects for Republicans for decades. 

To continue that policy Democrats needed to run in the South a lot of candidates with views ranging from simply conservative to very conservative. That wouldn't please main Democratic donors from NYC, Los Angeles, Bay Area and so on. And, most important, they needed to "isolate" somehow, say, Alabama's and Mississipi's Democratic parties from national Obama's Administration. That worked half century ago, when conservative candidate could run as "Mississippi's Democrat, not national Democrat", but became more and more difficult with years. Changes in the state Democratic parties were also substantial: for example - the above mentioned southern Democratic parties became more liberal and much more black with years (in some Deep south states every new black vote after initial explosion in late 60-th - early 70th probably cost Democrats 2-3 white votes). That "white bleeding" made Democratic parties almost irrelevant in the South outside black, or (as in Texas or Florida) hispanics areas. Now, the only hope Democrats have in that states are demographic changes, but they happen VERY slowly. So, strategically (say, by 2065) Democrats may have upper hand even in the South, but all "tactical initiative", most likely, belongs to Republicans.

And many members of "hardworking working class" in Appalachian (and similar) areas feel that Democratic partiy cares much more about minorities then about them (a feeling they didn't have in FDR or even LBJ time) and vote ... acoordingly. Many of them were Democrats strictly because of economy, and they don't have (or, at least, they think so) that reason now.

[smoltchanov]

The Republican domination of state legislatures in the country is due to Republicans' very successful organization of these districts and their work has pushed many state legislatures from the Democratic column to the Republican column. Blaming President Obama for this is ignoring the fact that Democrats have completely ignored state legislatures for far too long and never recognized the importance of keeping these chambers for the Democrats.

Of course. No one would dispute that. Nevertheless, both Obama's personality and his politics played an important role: he is, surely, not among the strongest (and smartest) presidents. FDR will remain an ideal for me on both counts. Obama is not FDR.... (remember "Senator, you are not Jack Kennedy"?)

[smoltchanov]

So, even without South, number of Democratic legislatures fell from 38 in 1993 to 29 in 2015. Not especially good... Though - better then 22 in 1995

[smoltchanov]

Somewhat interesting that Florida was the first Southern legislature to go Republican, considering that it was the most Democratic at the presidential level in 2000 and 2004.  I guess the influx of Northerners that made it one of the more GOP-friendly Southern states initially would eventually make it one of the more liberal (in presidential elections) in the 1990s and 2000s.

IMHO - not so surprising as it seems. Because of constant influx of the Northerners Florida's legislature was more Republican (though still majority Democratic)  then other southern legislatures since late 60th. In first election after "one man one vote" redistricting of 1966-67 Florida elected 28 Democrats and 20 Republicans to it's (then) 48-member state Senate. At that time Alabama, Mississipi, Louisiana and Arkansas had barely 1-3 Republican state legislators. At the same time this northern influx made Florida one of the least "Southern" (politically) states in the South - at least since the above mentioned redistricting and complete demise of ultraconservative "Pork chop gang" in state legislature. So, it's voting patterns are very different from "typical South". The addition of lot of Cubans, and weakness of Florida's state Democratic party helped too: Republicans now occupy a lot of Democratic-leaning (on most levels) districts now, while "vice versa" is almost nonexistent.

[smoltchanov]

^ Filing deadline in Louisiana is very late (September 10th), so we don't even know now who will run there. But most likely yes: in Louisiana we still have considerable number of white Democrats elected to House from solid Republican (on Presidential level) districts (especially - in Cajun country, which turned solid right recently). The "big wave" in the state was in 2007, when term limits first came into effect, so - next one is expected in 2019, but even this year Republicans can gain 1-2 seats in Senate (Nevers's and, may be, LaFleur's) and 3-4 in House. The only chance Democrat have is to tie Republicans candidates to unpopular Jindal.

P.S. (for comparison). 7 state Senators and 14 House members are term-limited this year, 19 state Senators (almost half of chamber) and 47 House members (about 45% of chamber) - in 2019. After 2019 it may happen that "conservative-leaning" (and mostly white) faction of Democratic caucus will be reduced to 2-3 persons, and caucus (already majority Black) will become overwhelmingly Black... Usual political polarization of Deep South: white-majority district voting for white Republicans (usually - very conservative), black-majority - for black Democrats (usually - more or less liberal), and no one else...

[smoltchanov]

There is plenty of room for improvements in the House, many red seat Democrats.

Of course. There is even a Democrat in Louisiana's House sitting in a seat that gave Obama about 16% of votes, and another about 19% Obama seat with unopposed in 2011 Democrat. Plus - about 22%, about 25% and about 29% seats. I will not even mention 30-36% Obama seats here...... Mostly in Acadiana or nearby...

[smoltchanov]

I use the same source..

Some Details:

"Blue seat Republican" is a conservative Black, running now for Lt. Governor. He was elected as a Democrat (the only way to be elected in this district) in 2011, and switched later. This district will go Democratic in October or November. But another seat, SD-12, will almost surely go Republican (even very socially conservative (but - at least somewhat populist) Democrat Nevers barely won it then). So, it will, most likely, be a wash (or +1 Republican) in state Senate, but at least +3 - 5 Republican in House (unless Democrats will find locally popular conservative candidates)

[smoltchanov]

This map progression is incredibly depressing.

Well, not too surprising at all. Southern legislatures finally followed Presidential and Congressional South - one. Rural areas (less socially liberal, pro-gun and so on) mostly followed - two. Self-packing of Democrats in relatively few districts, where they get 80-90 (and more) percentages of vote, but which doesn't change the final result (number of districts won) even a iota (you could win the same districts with 55% and get the same result) - three. Gerrymandering (yes, in 2010 - mostly Republican) - four. Possibly also VRA, which leads to creation of relatively small number of very reliable minority-majority Democratic districts and very big number of Republican (or, at least, Republican-leaning) majority white districts - five. General ideologization of parties (and there are still more conservatives then liberals) - six. And so on.....

In about 2040, when whites will become a minority in the country, all that will be mostly mitigated by changing demography, but until then - .......