Democratic Party still bleeding White voters?
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  Democratic Party still bleeding White voters?
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Author Topic: Democratic Party still bleeding White voters?  (Read 4794 times)
aktheden
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« on: May 09, 2015, 11:19:33 PM »
« edited: May 11, 2015, 04:33:47 PM by Small Business Owner of Any Repute »

I think the defection of white voters from the Democrats to the GOP will continue at a steady pace come 2016. Discuss
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2015, 11:21:03 PM »

Most polls show Hillary doing better among the white vote than Obama in 2012.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2015, 11:22:08 PM »

Nothing to discuss since you declined to explain why you think this hypothetical will happen. If you want a discussion then start one.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2015, 01:22:42 AM »

It's possible that Democrats could continue to shed white voters in midterm years, though it's hard to imagine exactly where it has left to shed them outside of white liberals who I have a hard time seeing voting for Republicans. But in presidential election years for the past 30 years, Democratic share of the white vote has fluctuated above and below 40%. Some candidates do substantially better, some do much worse, but there isn't really much of a trend. Perhaps one could exert itself in the future, but there isn't any data now that suggests Democrats are going to drop to say 30% of the white vote.
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King
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2015, 01:52:57 AM »

there's a clear hard floor of artists, musicians, vegans, social workers, mommy bloggers, standup comics, alternative medicine practictoners, enviro activists,  and gays that prevent the GOP from going much further with whites
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2015, 02:15:30 AM »

Bernie Sanders can't win rural whites. Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2015, 11:06:49 AM »

Source, please?
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2015, 11:24:19 AM »

there's a clear hard floor of artists, musicians, vegans, social workers, mommy bloggers, standup comics, alternative medicine practictoners, enviro activists,  and gays that prevent the GOP from going much further with whites

Unfortunately that doesn't help Democrats increase their numbers in Congress. Sad
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2015, 05:47:53 PM »


Rural whites in Vermont are an entirely different beast from most rural whites.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2015, 05:59:37 PM »


Rural whites in Vermont are an entirely different beast from most rural whites.

Here's what a bunch or rural whites are doing in the itsy-bitsy county seat (population 6,400), of "rural" Columbia County, NY, in a parade which is one of the premier events of the year in the county, with politicians all in attendance. I and my partner will be in the parade this year. The Pub Mayor officiates sometimes at gay weddings. It can get a bit more complicated. Smiley

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Bacon King
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2015, 06:04:28 PM »

Exit polling. Obama's approval rating among whites. Didn't you do a polling thread, lol?

The fact that a trend in occurring doesn't imply that the trend will continue unabated in the future. This is called the fallacy of extrapolation
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2015, 06:16:56 PM »

Exit polling. Obama's approval rating among whites. Didn't you do a polling thread, lol?

The fact that a trend in occurring doesn't imply that the trend will continue unabated in the future. This is called the fallacy of extrapolation

You question whether 110% of whites will be voting Pub at some point?
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Hydera
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2015, 07:29:09 PM »


But but but.... democraticsalonatlanticgroundkosaltercrooksfinggtonpost told me that bernie sanders will win a landslide just by screaming about the banks!!! /s
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2015, 11:00:38 PM »

I think the defection of white voters from the Democrats to the GOP will continue at a steady pace come 2016. Discuss

I pray so. Democrats entire campaign strategy is about racial demagoguery. Their race card strategy should turn off white voters - but only if the Republicans make people aware of it. Republican response to race issues has been to sit with hands folded
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2015, 11:21:05 PM »

I think the defection of white voters from the Democrats to the GOP will continue at a steady pace come 2016. Discuss

I pray so. Democrats entire campaign strategy is about racial demagoguery. Their race card strategy should turn off white voters - but only if the Republicans make people aware of it. Republican response to race issues has been to sit with hands folded
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Alcon
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2015, 12:04:32 AM »

Exit polling. Obama's approval rating among whites. Didn't you do a polling thread, lol?

The fact that a trend in occurring doesn't imply that the trend will continue unabated in the future. This is called the fallacy of extrapolation

Strongly agreed.  Even worse, voters who were recently gained are more vulnerable to being lost, because they were recently voting differently.  That's not to say the trend can't continue (see the 2000->2012 whiteslide in some areas), but generally it's not even probable, let alone certain.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2015, 12:15:07 AM »

I think the defection of white voters from the Democrats to the GOP will continue at a steady pace come 2016. Discuss

I pray so. Democrats entire campaign strategy is about racial demagoguery. Their race card strategy should turn off white voters - but only if the Republicans make people aware of it. Republican response to race issues has been to sit with hands folded

Agreed. I also hope the GOP 2016 strategy is to run on the pro-white side of race relations, I'd love to see that.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2015, 12:15:24 AM »

there's a clear hard floor of artists, musicians, vegans, social workers, mommy bloggers, standup comics, alternative medicine practictoners, enviro activists,  and gays that prevent the GOP from going much further with whites

The true progressive activists are only 25-30% or so, though.  I could see a Dem that managed to alienate both unions and the coastal suburbs falling to 30%.  Not likely, but that's probably the true liberal self-ID floor.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2015, 12:20:05 AM »

there's a clear hard floor of artists, musicians, vegans, social workers, mommy bloggers, standup comics, alternative medicine practictoners, enviro activists,  and gays that prevent the GOP from going much further with whites

The true progressive activists are only 25-30% or so, though.  I could see a Dem that managed to alienate both unions and the coastal suburbs falling to 30%.  Not likely, but that's probably the true liberal self-ID floor.

McGovern still got 37%, probably the floor for a situation like that.
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2015, 08:49:38 AM »

I think the defection of white voters from the Democrats to the GOP will continue at a steady pace come 2016. Discuss

I pray so. Democrats entire campaign strategy is about racial demagoguery. Their race card strategy should turn off white voters - but only if the Republicans make people aware of it. Republican response to race issues has been to sit with hands folded

This is both wrong AND gross, but I think it's grosser than it is wrong.
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TNF
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« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2015, 09:00:25 AM »

It's a tend that's only likely to continue, something pretty strongly evidenced by election results elsewhere in the advanced democracies. Without anything resembling a real political left existing in the US today, political trends are going to necessarily imitate the extreme identitarianism that has substituted itself for meaningful politics since at least 1947. When Taft-Hartley was enacted, the unions and civil society purged of the left, and left-wing organizations banned or proscribed, political struggle moved from the realm of multiracial, multiethnic, multinational class politics to hyper-individualized identity politics. The fact that this remains unchallenged even on the left is why you're going to see America increasingly resemble South Africa in terms of political coalitions and outcomes.

The Democratic Party may emerge as the majority party over the course of the next generation, but it won't do so as a 'progressive' party in the traditional sense. Much like the ANC, the Democrats will become (even moreso than they already are) a party with a progressive veneer enacting more and more pro-capitalist policies. The trend has existed within the Democratic Party since the 1960s (Kennedy was the first more or less post-New Deal president), and has gained steam as the traditional class coalition that underpinned the old Democratic Party collapsed and was replaced by a frankenstein coalition of ultra-rich financiers and tech magnates and the utterly destitute. As the Republicans play up their own identity politics (white, male, Christian, rural, and suburban identity politics), the Democrats will respond with their own and the coalitions will be increasingly racially, rather than socioeconomically, based.

I'd say we can expect the Republicans to start winning an overwhelming majority of the white vote at some point in the future. Granted, they already win a majority of it, but I'm talking about 2/3rds of it, which may very well doom the Democratic Party to another four decades in opposition, as was the case between the 1970s and now. Barring the re-emergence of a left committed to class politics, we will continue to slide down the identitarian rabbit hole, where politics is less about who should be commanding and controlling the economy (capitalists or the rest of us) and more about things like whether or not video games are anti-feminist, or whether or not the Democrats are planning 'white genocide' or whatever the lunatic far-right identitarians are going off on these days.
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aktheden
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« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2015, 12:07:27 PM »

It's a tend that's only likely to continue, something pretty strongly evidenced by election results elsewhere in the advanced democracies. Without anything resembling a real political left existing in the US today, political trends are going to necessarily imitate the extreme identitarianism that has substituted itself for meaningful politics since at least 1947. When Taft-Hartley was enacted, the unions and civil society purged of the left, and left-wing organizations banned or proscribed, political struggle moved from the realm of multiracial, multiethnic, multinational class politics to hyper-individualized identity politics. The fact that this remains unchallenged even on the left is why you're going to see America increasingly resemble South Africa in terms of political coalitions and outcomes.

The Democratic Party may emerge as the majority party over the course of the next generation, but it won't do so as a 'progressive' party in the traditional sense. Much like the ANC, the Democrats will become (even moreso than they already are) a party with a progressive veneer enacting more and more pro-capitalist policies. The trend has existed within the Democratic Party since the 1960s (Kennedy was the first more or less post-New Deal president), and has gained steam as the traditional class coalition that underpinned the old Democratic Party collapsed and was replaced by a frankenstein coalition of ultra-rich financiers and tech magnates and the utterly destitute. As the Republicans play up their own identity politics (white, male, Christian, rural, and suburban identity politics), the Democrats will respond with their own and the coalitions will be increasingly racially, rather than socioeconomically, based.

I'd say we can expect the Republicans to start winning an overwhelming majority of the white vote at some point in the future. Granted, they already win a majority of it, but I'm talking about 2/3rds of it, which may very well doom the Democratic Party to another four decades in opposition, as was the case between the 1970s and now. Barring the re-emergence of a left committed to class politics, we will continue to slide down the identitarian rabbit hole, where politics is less about who should be commanding and controlling the economy (capitalists or the rest of us) and more about things like whether or not video games are anti-feminist, or whether or not the Democrats are planning 'white genocide' or whatever the lunatic far-right identitarians are going off on these days.

I agree 100%
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2015, 12:48:10 PM »

TNF, class warfare politics (I mean real class warfare politics, rather than cosmetic or lip service class warfare politics), just doesn't work in a global economy.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2015, 01:30:36 PM »

TNF, class warfare politics (I mean real class warfare politics, rather than cosmetic or lip service class warfare politics), just doesn't work in a global economy.

Yes, businesses and middle class jobs can easily "go where they are wanted" today in a way that they just couldn't from 1930-1970.  And US policy really has very little to do with why things have changed.
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TNF
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« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2015, 01:31:28 PM »

TNF, class warfare politics (I mean real class warfare politics, rather than cosmetic or lip service class warfare politics), just doesn't work in a global economy.

I disagree. A genuine politics of class struggle is an internationalist politics, because the working classes of every country have more in common with one another than they do the respective ruling classes of their countries. Past approaches will not work, that I will concede to you. We cannot, for example, think that we have any shot of restoring the 'Great Compromise' of the 1940s-1970s, because we never will. The only solution for a genuine class politics is to reach across national borders and construct a truly international working class party that can combat Capital anywhere and everywhere. Capital is mobile and organized on an international basis, and so must be the working class.

I don't think that's impossible, either. Liberals might because they don't believe in the agency of the working class, but the historical record proves them wrong. Time after time, workers from many different countries, speaking many different languages, of many different colors and religions and ethnic backgrounds, have come together and influenced politics in a big way. What was the CIO but a miniature version of what I'm proposing here? If a group of half-literate, half-starved immigrants from every corner of the globe (along with the native born) could get together and bring corporations like General Motors to the bargaining table 80 years ago, who's to say that we, in our more connected society, with fewer international barriers between us, couldn't do the same to Google, Microsoft, etc?

The identitarian struggle benefits no one but the ruling classes of each country. They have a vested interest in the division of the population on racial, ethnic, or religious lines because it helps them maintain their rule over the mass of people. In the old days, they did that with Jim Crow and the exclusion of non-white immigrants. Today, they do it by manipulating our better impulses, our inclinations toward anti-racism. They tell us that whites and blacks and browns and everyone else and in between cannot ever understand one another, because the experience of that particular group overrides any universality the human experience might bring. And because of that, they tell us that any struggles we engage in must be the struggle of the oppressed or marginalized 'community' or individual, who cannot hope to ever really form lasting bonds with others who may be from a different background than they, because they're too racist or too sexist or just don't get it.

And all the while they do that, they also deliberately stoke resentment among other segments of the population. Deprived of full-time employment, living wages, and basic access to the fundamentals of life, is it any surprise that many white Americans would turn to racist or sexist or other kinds of conspiratorial forms of thinking to help them understand why they're making less than their parents did, why they're losing their home, why they're children are growing up as poor as the children of black and brown parents? Combine this with the fact that you have  hyper-segregated society, in which when most white people say they 'have black friends' they're literally meaning one or two people, and you have a recipe for unmitigated hatred, misunderstanding, and the very kind of inability to understand the other that the ruling class tells us already exists.

This is exactly how they want it. They don't want us to go to the same movie theaters, to visit the same shopping malls, to go to the same schools, to eat at the same places, to fall in love with one another and have children together. Because if we do, they know that every barrier that they have thrown up to keep us apart, to confuse us, and to rule over us, begins to shake at its foundations, and they know what that means for them.
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