Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Linus Van Pelt]

Here is the map for Special Voting Rules, Group 1, which groups together:
- Canadian Forces voters away on duty from their ordinary residence: 28,431 (47.5%)
- voters who are incarcerated in prison: 20,673 (34.6%)
- voters who live outside Canada: 10,707 (17.9%). Note that these are cut off from voting after 5 years abroad unless they are diplomats (or UN/NATO officials etc.)

Unfortunately, these categories are not broken down by riding. In theory, the military voters vote at their home address, but it's clear that many actually use an address near the base. The average is about 177 votes per riding, but you often see 500-1000 in ridings with bases. One question I wonder about is to what extent career officers - who might vote differently from enlisted troops - are more likely to use a base address, but I don't know.

As you can see, this vote is mostly Liberal, but with some strange regional patterns. This seems to suggest that expats and prisoners together form a very Liberal category. But basically this is a strange and hard to interpret map.

In the Atlantic, the vote is actually a bit less Liberal than the general electorate. My guess about this would be that the category is more military here, with high enlistment and low crime rates. Gagetown (army) outside Fredericton and Greenwood (air force) in West Nova show up clearly in vote numbers and Conservative voting. The navy bases at St. John's and Halifax also show up in numbers, but the ridings are Liberal; one interesting thing the map seems to suggest overall is that the navy is more Liberal than the other two services.

In Quebec, the vote is strongly Liberal with a few exceptions. Valcartier (army) just northwest of Quebec City shows up hugely in total votes and Conservative % in surrounding ridings, and Bagotville (air force) in the Saguenay can also be seen. There's an army base in eastern Montreal but it looks maybe like a lot of the staff commute from the south shore. The area around Beauce is one of the few areas of the country where the Conservatives win without a military presence.

The Ontario pattern is pretty similar to Quebec, with Conservative+turnout clusters from Borden (army) in Simcoe-Grey, Petawawa (army) in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, and Trenton (army) and Kingston (air force base + Royal Military College) along the Lake Ontario shore. In Ottawa, meanwhile, turnout is also high in all ridings. It looks maybe like diplomats live closer the city core while National Defence HQ commutes in more from the suburbs? Meanwhile, the Toronto NDP vote holds up reasonably well here - maybe more lefty young adult expats whose last address was in the city?

In the west, meanwhile, the vote is much more Liberal than the general electorate, making for some ridiculous results. The west has higher crime rates, and very disproportionate Aboriginal incarceration. But still, why exactly it should be so Liberal rather than NDP I'm not sure. Aside from a handful of rural Alberta ridings, the only Conservative wins are around Shilo (army) outside Brandon MB, a tie in Moose Jaw (air force), Cold Lake (air force) in Fort-McMurray-Cold Lake, Edmonton (army) drawing on northern Edmonton suburbia, and Comox (air force) on Vancouver Island. Esquimalt (navy) is in a narrowly Liberal riding but probably affects the close result as well as the Conservative win in the neighboring Cowichan riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Very interesting! Thanks for this. (BTW, you didn't colour in Gatineau or Hull-Aylmer)

It might be curious to see how prisoners vote. Do they vote at their last address or their address of their prison?

Here is a list of prisons I pulled from Corrections Canada's site, coloured by how their riding's special votes went as per your map:

Atlantic Inst. (Miramichi)
Dorchester Pen. (Beausejour)
Springhill Inst. (Cumberland-Colchester)
Nova Inst. for Women (Cumberland-Colchester)
Donnacona Inst. (Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier)
Port-Cartier Inst. (Manicouagan)
Cowansville Inst. (Brome--Missisquoi)
Archambault Inst. (Mirabel)
La Macaza Inst. (Laurentides--Labelle)
Drummondville Inst. (Drummond)
Federal Training Centre (Alfred-Pellan)
Joliette Inst. (Joliette)
Waseskun Healing Center [sic] (Joliette)
Millhaven Inst. & Bath Inst. (Hastings--Lennox and Addington)
Collins Bay Inst. (Kingston and the Islands)
Beaver Creek Inst. (Parry Sound--Muskoka)
Joyceville Inst. (Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston)
Warkworth Inst. (Northumberland--Peterborough South)
Grand Valley Inst. for Women (Kitchener South--Hespeler)
Edmonton Inst. (Edmonton Manning)
Saskatchewan Pen. (Prince Albert)
Stony Mountain Inst. (Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman)
Bowden Inst. & Annex (Red Deer--Mountain View)
Drumheller Inst. (Battle River--Crowfoot)
Grande Casche Inst. (Yellowhead)
Grierson Inst. (Edmonton Griesbach)
Pê Sâkâstêw Centre (Red Deer--Lacombe)
Regional Psychiatric Centre (Saskatoon--University)
Willow Cree Healing Centre (Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek)
Edmonton Inst. for Women (Edmonton West)
Okimaw Ohci Healing Lodge (Cypress Hills--Grasslands)
O-chi-chak-ko-sipi First Nation Healing Lodge (Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa)
Pacific Inst. / Matsqui Inst./Fraser Valley Inst. for Women (Abbotsford)
Kent Inst./Mountain Inst. (Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon)
Mission Inst. (Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon)
William Head Inst. (Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke)
Kwìkwèxwelhp Healing Village (Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon)

I guess prisoners don't vote NDP; Indeed they vote overwhelmingly Liberal most likely. Most of the Tory seats on this list also have Military bases.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... I suppose when you think about it for a moment it makes sense that the criminal vote would be massively Liberal.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Prisoners vote by their last home address, not at the prison. And there are no vote clusters around prisons, unlike with military bases.

[Hatman 🍁]

Prisoners vote by their last home address, not at the prison. And there are no vote clusters around prisons, unlike with military bases.

I believe they can vote in the prison's riding if they want, no? That's certainly what I would do. Especially if I were in there for life.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do politicians canvass jail cells?

[Hatman 🍁]

Do politicians canvass jail cells?

I've never heard of this happening; and if most vote in the riding they're from, canvassing a jail would be pointless, as there wouldn't be many inmates you would be voting in your district.

[adma]

Do politicians canvass jail cells?

Well, anyplace one feels they belong, I guess ;-)