Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Clyde1998]

How early can we put these threads up...?

Scottish Parliament election
Date: Thursday 5th May 2016

Recent Polling:
Constituency:
YouGov (29 Apr-1 May 15): SNP - 49%; Lab - 25%; Con - 15%; Lib - 7%; Others - 4%
Survation (22-27 Apr 15): SNP - 54%; Lab - 24%; Con - 13%; Lib - 5%; Others - 4%

Regional List:
YouGov (29 Apr-1 May 15): SNP - 43%; Lab - 24%; Con - 16%; Grn - 7%; Lib - 6%; Others - 5%
Survation (22-27 Apr 15): SNP - 44%; Lab - 21%; Con - 11%; Grn - 10%; Lib - 6%; Others - 6%

Seat Predictor - http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood/i]
Using averages of the two recent polls. Should be more accurate the straight FPTP, due to regional list.

SNP - 70 (+1)
Lab - 29 (-8)
Con - 16 (+1)
Grn - 8 (+6)
Lib - 6 (+1)
Ind - 0 (-1)
65 seats needed for majority

[Harry Hayfield]

UK-Elect's forecast gives: SNP 65, Lab 32, Con 16, Green 8, Lib Dem 6, Ind 2 (SNP short by 4)

And no, you are not too early in the slightest.

[Vosem]

Is there a chance the Liberal Democrats will end up with more members of the Scottish Parliament than at Westminster?

[Clyde1998]

I doubt we'll see swings like this during this election - as the shift has happened during a number of Scottish Parliament elections.

Is there a chance the Liberal Democrats will end up with more members of the Scottish Parliament than at Westminster?

Plausibly. The Lib Dems had between 15-20 MSPs between 1999 and 2011. If the Lib Dems get around 8% of the List Vote - it could happen.

[Andrea]

IIRC SLAB still have to decide the selection rules for list candidates....it will be fun..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A year is a long time in politics (as I think the past year in Scottish politics demonstrates pretty clearly) and who knows what might change, but the SNP will obviously be re-elected.

[Clyde1998]

A year is a long time in politics (as I think the past year in Scottish politics demonstrates pretty clearly) and who knows what might change, but the SNP will obviously be re-elected.

I think the biggest questions - right now anyway - are:

Will the SNP be a majority government or not?
Could UKIP get an MSP?
How many seats with Labour lose?
How many Green MSPs will there be?

Although - as you say - a year is a very long time in politics. If the SNP perform badly at Westminster - then who knows what could happen...

[joevsimp]

IIRC SLAB still have to decide the selection rules for list candidates....it will be fun..

will they run many of the now-unemployed former MPs or not do you think?

[Clyde1998]

IIRC SLAB still have to decide the selection rules for list candidates....it will be fun..

will they run many of the now-unemployed former MPs or not do you think?

Unless they've left politics - Labour would be mad not to run people such as Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran in this election. Murphy is "running for First Minister"...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Much drama within Scottish Labour presently, which is hardly surprising given everything.

[afleitch]

Much drama within Scottish Labour presently, which is hardly surprising given everything.

Because Chernenko Murphy won't go. And Labour (not Scottish Labour) seems to be insistent on him staying and they all filed into a meeting and told the world they loved him. Except those that said nothing. And those that resigned from the Shadow Cabinet at Holyrood where the power should lie and have always lain. And those who dedicated themselves at Holyrood from 1999-2011 and expected to have another pop in 2016 might now be thrown under the bus so that the MP's that people secretly loved (and this was all just a 'horrendous mistake by the public who don't hate them personally you see') like Magrit and Sarwar can be welcomed back. And the list MSP's who didn't think they'd get in through the back door but have worked there socks off as non career politicians often do, will also have to be thrown under the bus.

That's the perception/fear anyway.

[Donerail]

Elation followed by mild disappointment among SNP supporters today; Jim Murphy narrowly survived a vote of no confidence, but has said he will resign next month.

[Clyde1998]

Elation followed by mild disappointment among SNP supporters today; Jim Murphy narrowly survived a vote of no confidence, but has said he will resign next month.

Labour have got through a leader every two years since devolution in 1999...

I can't see anyone, who could become leader, who can challenge the SNP, at this early stage...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hopefully whoever replaces him has less of a sweaty salesman vibe when under pressure. As I've said before, that really can't have helped.

[Phony Moderate]

TNS has the SNP on 60% in the constituency vote, 50% in the regions (due to the Greens taking 10%). All other parties below 20%.

http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/support-for-snp-rises-again-ahead-of-2016-holyrood-election

[Clyde1998]

TNS has the SNP on 60% in the constituency vote, 50% in the regions (due to the Greens taking 10%). All other parties below 20%.

http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/support-for-snp-rises-again-ahead-of-2016-holyrood-election

Apparently if that vote share happens - the Parliament will look something like this:
SNP - 73 (+4)
Lab - 25 (-12)
Con - 17 (+2)
Grn - 10 (+8)
Lib - 4 (-1)

How the constituency vote splits on the list:
SNP - 81% SNP; 10% Grn; 5% Lab; 3% Con; 1% Lib
Lab - 80% Lab; 6% SNP; 6% Grn; 4% Lib; 3% Con
Con - 80% Con; 5% Lib; 5% UKIP; 4% SNP; 3% Lab; 3% Grn
Lib - 84% Lib; 4% Lab; 2% Grn
Oth - 58% Grn; 22% UKIP; 8% Lab; 6% SSP
Und - 31% SNP; 23% Grn; 18% Lib; 12% UKIP; 11% Lab; 3% Oth

[Dan the Roman]

I think there is a non-zero chance of the Tories being the surprise story of the campaign. With the SNP almost certain to form the government, and Labour in a state of advanced dissolution, the media is going to be desperate for any sort of narrative to make the campaign interesting. Given Ruth Davidson's personal popularity, and the fact that Labour really serves no purpose(if you want left-wing vote SNP, if you want Unionist you can go Tory, if you want an alternative government your out of luck) I could see a "Scottish Tory Surge" narrative developing with the Tories touching 20%, and perhaps polling marginally above Scottish Labour.

The SNP has also moved visibly to the left in the last few years, something that became evident in the referendum where Westminster SNP areas that had previously been Tory went No. In stealing Scottish Labour's base, its possible the SNP will have alienated a portion(5-7%) of its center-right electorate.

In reality the difference between a 45-22-19 SNP-Tory-Lab and a 45-25-16 result will be marginal in policy terms, but it would be enormous in terms of media narrative.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I think there is a non-zero chance of the Tories being the surprise story of the campaign. With the SNP almost certain to form the government, and Labour in a state of advanced dissolution, the media is going to be desperate for any sort of narrative to make the campaign interesting. Given Ruth Davidson's personal popularity, and the fact that Labour really serves no purpose(if you want left-wing vote SNP, if you want Unionist you can go Tory, if you want an alternative government your out of luck) I could see a "Scottish Tory Surge" narrative developing with the Tories touching 20%, and perhaps polling marginally above Scottish Labour.

The SNP has also moved visibly to the left in the last few years, something that became evident in the referendum where Westminster SNP areas that had previously been Tory went No. In stealing Scottish Labour's base, its possible the SNP will have alienated a portion(5-7%) of its center-right electorate.

In reality the difference between a 45-22-19 SNP-Tory-Lab and a 45-25-16 result will be marginal in policy terms, but it would be enormous in terms of media narrative.

Perhaps but there is one problem with this theory and it's that we are talking about the Scottish Tories here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think maybe you're confusing what you'd like to happen with what is likely to happen (of course sometimes the two do converge). The reality is that while the Scottish Conservatives have a very solid base vote they have almost no capacity for expansion: for Scots who do not already vote Tory (at least some of the time) the party is beyond the pale. Not because it is right wing, but because it is seen as opposing Scottish interests (however defined). I mean it's kind of hard to overlook the fact that the thing that did the most damage to Scottish Labour was the apparently minor transgression of campaigning alongside - and celebrating alongside after the results - the Tories during the Referendum.

[Dan the Roman]

I think maybe you're confusing what you'd like to happen with what is likely to happen (of course sometimes the two do converge). The reality is that while the Scottish Conservatives have a very solid base vote they have almost no capacity for expansion: for Scots who do not already vote Tory (at least some of the time) the party is beyond the pale. Not because it is right wing, but because it is seen as opposing Scottish interests (however defined). I mean it's kind of hard to overlook the fact that the thing that did the most damage to Scottish Labour was the apparently minor transgression of campaigning alongside - and celebrating alongside after the results - the Tories during the Referendum.

Oh I agree Tory support is capped. I just believe it is capped in the mid to low 20s, not in the teens, and that with Scottish Labour incumbents gone, a disorganized party with no prospect of winning, and an actively left-wing SNP which has embraced Labour's traditional Scottish base to the exclusion of older Pre-1997 Tory/SNP supporters, there is potential for it to rise from the 15% or so to 22%.

I mean if we look at the European elections you have the Tories+UKIP getting 28%, which is close to recent polls showing 28% favoring the UK leaving the EU. With no tactical voting, a popular leader, and favorable coverage I think they could make gains. Obviously less likely, and almost certainly less impressive ones than if Miliband was at Number 10 supported by the SNP.

[Clyde1998]

The United Kingdom Parliament have voted down an amendment to the Scotland Bill made by the SNP:



This breaks the first five words of the 'vow' that the three party leaders made during the referendum campaign - "the Scottish Parliament is permanent" - and means that the United Kingdom Parliament can dissolve the Scottish Parliament when it suits them...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No Parliament can be bound by its predecessors so what was being proposed was dead letter.

[afleitch]

No Parliament can be bound by its predecessors so what was being proposed was dead letter.

The principle of Parliamentary sovereignty has no counterpart in Scots Law.

While it has not been effectively tested (though in the current climate it might be), the provisions of the Scotland Act 1998 (in particular the relationship between parliament, law making and the Court of Session) have complicated this further.

[Andrea]

Retirements announced so far

Nanette Milne (Con)
Alex Fergusson (Con)
Gavin Brown (Con)

Malcolm Chisholm (Lab)

Kenny MacAskill (SNP)
Marco Biagi (SNP)
Tricia Marwick (SNP)
Adam Ingram (SNP)
Dave Thompson (SNP)
Rob Gibson (SNP)
Margaret Burgess (SNP)
Fiona McLeod (SNP)

I suppose Salmon and Annabel Goldie are leaving Holyrood too.

[Clyde1998]

The Scottish Parliament has voted unanimously to reduce the voting age in Scotland to 16 (from 18) and will come into affect for this election - this will only affect the voting age for elections that are exclusively Scottish (ie not UK/EU elections).