Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 47% (+2%)
No - 53% (-2%)

[You kip if you want to...]

Panelbase - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 47% (+2%)
No - 53% (-2%)

#the53%

[afleitch]

Survation (constituency/list)

SNP 56/45
LAB 20/19
CON 14/12
LIB 7/8
OTH 4
GRN -/11
UKIP -/5

Seat projection:

SNP 71
LAB 24
CON 14
GRN 12
LD 7
UKIP 1

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could the Socialists get in?

Also does the Scottish pensioners party still exist?

[Clyde1998]

Could the Socialists get in?

Also does the Scottish pensioners party still exist?

Possibly - I don't know if they have polling figures or not though - and Yes.

Westminster:
SNP - 51% (+1% on 2015 Election)
Lab - 21% (-3%)
Con - 17% (+2%)
Lib - 7% (-1%)

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 48% (+3% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 52% (-3%)

If there was to be another referendum on Scottish independence when, if at all, do you think this referendum should take place?
Within 10 years?
Yes - 60%
No - 40%

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union? (respondents in Scotland only)
Yes - 66%
No - 34%

[Clyde1998]

TNS Poll:
Constituency ballot
SNP - 60% (+15% on 2011)
Lab - 20% (-12%)
Con - 14% (n/c)
Lib - 5% (-3%)

Regional list ballot
SNP - 51% (+7% on 2011)
Lab - 21% (-5%)
Con - 13% (+1%)
Grn - 7% (+3%)
Lib - 5% (n/c)

[rpryor03]

TNS Poll:
Constituency ballot
SNP - 60% (+15% on 2011)
Lab - 20% (-12%)
Con - 14% (n/c)
Lib - 5% (-3%)

Regional list ballot
SNP - 51% (+7% on 2011)
Lab - 21% (-5%)
Con - 13% (+1%)
Grn - 7% (+3%)
Lib - 5% (n/c)

Polls show the following in the election calculators:
SNP - 75
Labour - 27
Tories - 15
Green - 7
LD - 5

[afleitch]

TNS (Constituency)

SNP 62%
LAB 20%
CON 12%
LIB 3%

[Clyde1998]

TNS (Constituency)

SNP 62%
LAB 20%
CON 12%
LIB 3%

List:

SNP - 54%
Lab - 20%
Con - 12%
Grn - 8%
Lib - 4%
UKIP - 1%
SSP - 1%

[Frodo]

TNS Poll:
Constituency ballot
SNP - 60% (+15% on 2011)
Lab - 20% (-12%)
Con - 14% (n/c)
Lib - 5% (-3%)

Regional list ballot
SNP - 51% (+7% on 2011)
Lab - 21% (-5%)
Con - 13% (+1%)
Grn - 7% (+3%)
Lib - 5% (n/c)

Polls show the following in the election calculators:
SNP - 75
Labour - 27
Tories - 15
Green - 7
LD - 5

So the SNP gain an additional ten seats at the expense of Labour -where would these seats come from?

[joevsimp]

So the SNP gain an additional ten seats at the expense of Labour -where would these seats come from?

Labour hold 15 constitunecy seats, none of which can really be considered safe anymore, they could quite feasably lose all of them but gain an extra 5 list seats to bring them up to 27

[afleitch]

Some of the largest swings in 2015 were found in seats that Labour held in 2011. The SNP's 'base' has shifted somewhat.

[bore]

Some of the largest swings in 2015 were found in seats that Labour held in 2011. The SNP's 'base' has shifted somewhat.

Maybe the SNP base has shifted (although I'm not so sure shifted is the right word, as it's more that they've added more supporters as opposed to lost some and gained some others), but I don't think larger swings in the 2011 labour seats show that.

Those seats, at westminster, tend to be areas where labour previously racked up huge majorities, so for the SNP to win them there had to be a massive swing, whereas in seats labour got less in a swing on the level of glasgow northeast would have led to banana republic level of SNP support, which just couldn't happen because while (current) support for the SNP and independence is fairly well distributed so is opposition.

[rpryor03]

Firstly, the updated election calculator with the newest polls show the following:
SNP-78
LAB-25
CON-15
LD-2
GRN-9

As to the gains, the SNP gains all constituencies except for Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire (CON HOLD) and Shetland (LD HOLD).

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos MORI - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 53% (+8% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 44% (-11% on 2014 Referendum)
DK - 3%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 54.6% (+9.9%)
No - 45.4% (-9.9%)

That's one hell of a swing!

[Clyde1998]

List Vote:
SNP - 50%
Lab - 20%
Con - 12%
Grn - 8%
Lib - 7%
Oth - 3%

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos MORI - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 53% (+8% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 44% (-11% on 2014 Referendum)
DK - 3%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 54.6% (+9.9%)
No - 45.4% (-9.9%)

That's one hell of a swing!

It's also the first time ever that independence has been over 50% in a poll, including undecided voters.

[Clyde1998]

48% of people believe that the SNP have the best policies on Health and the NHS, compared to 18% for Labour. DK 15%; Con 9%; Lib 4%; Grn 3%; Oth 1%.

49% of people believe that the SNP have the best policies on Education, compared to 16% for Labour. DK 17%; Con 10%; Lib 4%; Grn 2%; Oth 1%.

40% of people believe that the SNP have the best policies on Crime and anti social behaviour, compared to 15% for the Tories. DK 23%; Lab 14%; Lib 4%; Grn 2%; Oth 2%.

36% of people believe that the Greens have the best policies on the environment, compared to 28% for the SNP. DK 16%; Lab 9%; Con 6%; Lib 4%; Oth 1%.

Net Approval Ratings:
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) +48%
Patrick Harvie (Grn) +31%
John Swinney (SNP) +18%
Ruth Davidson (Con) +9%
Kezia Dugdale (Lab) +1%
Willie Rennie (Lib) -5%
David Cameron (Con) -40%

Thinking about the possibility of holding another referendum on Scottish independence, please tell me whether you support or oppose another referendum being held in the event of each of the following circumstances...
One being held in the next five years: 50% Support; 46% Oppose
One being held in the next ten years: 58% Support; 37% Oppose
The UK leaving the EU after a referendum when voters in Scotland voted to stay in the EU: 52% Support; 39% Oppose
The UK voting in favour of "English votes for English Laws": 50% Support; 41% Oppose
The UK parliament voting of renewing the Trident nuclear deterrent: 41% Support; 47% Oppose

[afleitch]

Hopefully the Tories can close the gap. I imagine with a Corbyn led Labour party they might not be so keen to tactically vote Labour.

[Frodo]

Ipsos MORI - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 53% (+8% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 44% (-11% on 2014 Referendum)
DK - 3%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 54.6% (+9.9%)
No - 45.4% (-9.9%)

That's one hell of a swing!

I presume much of that is due to generational turnover, assuming most younger Scots are more supportive of independence than their elders.  It may therefore be to Sturgeon's advantage to hold off on a second independence referendum (maybe 2020?) until after the EU referendum -among other reasons.  

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos MORI - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 53% (+8% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 44% (-11% on 2014 Referendum)
DK - 3%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 54.6% (+9.9%)
No - 45.4% (-9.9%)

That's one hell of a swing!

I presume much of that is due to generational turnover, assuming most younger Scots are more supportive of independence than their elders.  It may therefore be to Sturgeon's advantage to hold off on a second independence referendum (maybe 2020?) until after the EU referendum -among other reasons.  

The biggest change in vote is among the over 55s - maybe due to the UK government saying "if Scotland becomes independent, you'll get a lower pension" and then cutting people's pensions anyway.

The over 55s independence support has increased by around 15% since the referendum - although it remains the most pro-union age category - whereas the other age groups are broadly similar to the referendum date (but has increased slightly).

[Clyde1998]

[afleitch]

I might put money on the Tories beating Labour on the regional vote next year.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If the SNP does lose its majority (not likely of course) will they draft the Greenies as coalition partners or go at it alone in a minority?

[afleitch]

If the SNP does lose its majority (not likely of course) will they draft the Greenies as coalition partners or go at it alone in a minority?

Go it alone. They did it when they had only one more seat than Labour.

On the poll front we have this from YouGov

Constituency

SNP 51 (+2)
LAB 22 (-3)
CON 18 (+3)
LIB 4 (-3)

Regional

SNP 45 (+2)
LAB 20 (-4)
CON 18 (+2)
LIB 4 (-2)
GRN 6 (-1)
UKIP 3 (+1)
LEFT 3

Seats

SNP 71 (+2)
LAB 26 (-9)
CON 24 (+9)
LIB 3 (-2)
GRN 5 (+3)