Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[afleitch]

In that poll, the SNP wins support from 91% of Yes supporters. Amongst No supporters, Labour get 40% to the Tories 33%. With Corbyn, I don't see much continued 'lending' of votes by Tories/Liberals to Labour.

In terms of how 'left wing' someone is;

Corbyn -74
Sturgeon -44
Salmond -35
Dugdale -22
Davidson +56

However, SNP voters think Corbyn is less left wing that than anyone else (-65) Labour have him at -84 and Tories at -90.

[Clyde1998]

First opinion poll since Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader:

TNS-BMRB
Constituency ballot:
SNP - 56% (-2)
Lab - 21% (-2)
Con - 12% (n/c)
Lib - 6% (n/c)
Oth - 5% (+3)

Regional list ballot:
SNP - 52% (+1)
Lab - 23% (-1)
Con - 11% (n/c)
Lib - 6% (n/c)
Grn - 5% (-1)
UKIP - 3% (+2)
SSP - <1% (n/c)
Oth - 1% (n/c)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

First opinion poll since Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader:

TNS-BMRB
Constituency ballot:
SNP - 56% (-2)
Lab - 21% (-2)
Con - 12% (n/c)
Lib - 6% (n/c)

Regional list ballot:
SNP - 52% (+1)
Lab - 23% (-1)
Con - 11% (n/c)
Lib - 6% (n/c)
Grn - 5% (-1)

As we can clearly see, Corbyn will as predicted reconquer Scotland to the Labour fold... 

[afleitch]

Yougov (constituency/region/seats)

SNP 51/45 = 70
LAB 21/20 = 25
CON 19/19 = 25
LIB 5/5 = 4
GRN -/6 = 5

[Clyde1998]

Yougov (constituency/region/seats)

SNP 51/45 = 70
LAB 21/20 = 25
CON 19/19 = 25
LIB 5/5 = 4
GRN -/6 = 5

Conservatives beating Labour to second would be interesting...

Additionally: UKIP and SSP on 3% on the list and independence: as you were last month (48% Yes).

[Phony Moderate]

Conservatives beating Labour to second would be interesting...

Corbyn would probably be a goner if that happened, let alone Dugdale.

[politicus]

Conservatives beating Labour to second would be interesting...

Corbyn would probably be a goner if that happened

Really? It wouldn't be his fault. The decline of Labour in Scotland is caused by a realignment, not something any individual Labour leader can be held responsible for.

[afleitch]

Conservatives beating Labour to second would be interesting...

Corbyn would probably be a goner if that happened

Really? It wouldn't be his fault. The decline of Labour in Scotland is caused by a realignment, not something any individual Labour leader can be held responsible for.

To an extent yes. But the re-alignment happened four years ago and the election in May simply confirmed it. 2011 (Scotland and mediocre English local election results in 2011) should have been a sign that something was wrong, but Miliband stayed the course. Political parties have an inbuilt ability to keep making the same mistakes.

[politicus]

Conservatives beating Labour to second would be interesting...

Corbyn would probably be a goner if that happened

Really? It wouldn't be his fault. The decline of Labour in Scotland is caused by a realignment, not something any individual Labour leader can be held responsible for.

To an extent yes. But the re-alignment happened four years ago and the election in May simply confirmed it. 2011 (Scotland and mediocre English local election results in 2011) should have been a sign that something was wrong, but Miliband stayed the course. Political parties have an inbuilt ability to keep making the same mistakes.

But would anything Labour could have realistically done really have prevented the Scottish realignment? Scottish politics has historically had a tendency to always center around a dominant party. I fail to see how Labour could have prevented SNP from becoming the dominant party. I suppose a different handling of the referendum could have made a minor difference and halted the trend, but not really reversed it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A few months before the referendum Labour topped the poll in Glasgow and much of the rest of the Central Belt in the European elections and in prior to that had been doing decently in by-elections; yes, Euro elections are a low turnout joke and yes by-elections are what they are, but I think not so much that we can't say this is indicative that something pretty substantial changed as a result of the referendum campaign. Obviously long term problems contributed heavily and obviously there were also seriously important medium term political changes, but...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbh, Scottish Labour needs to keep Dugdale whatever happens (unless a super heavyweight wants the job). The revolving leadership in Scotland is becoming increasingly part of the toxic nature of the current party.

[afleitch]

A few months before the referendum Labour topped the poll in Glasgow and much of the rest of the Central Belt in the European elections and in prior to that had been doing decently in by-elections; yes, Euro elections are a low turnout joke and yes by-elections are what they are, but I think not so much that we can't say this is indicative that something pretty substantial changed as a result of the referendum campaign. Obviously long term problems contributed heavily and obviously there were also seriously important medium term political changes, but...

2010 aside, the SNP have bested Labour in every national election (including European and council) since 2007. The movement in 2015 was simply an extension of the movement that had already happened in 2011 (the polls showed that the SNP carried their 2011 voter base with them, while fragmentation in the other parties was along similar, but stronger lines)

It's been somewhat incorrect for pundits to consider 2010 as a 'base' which was then affected by the referendum result from which to measure voting behaviour. The Yes base were the voters who had backed the SNP in 2011; it just took the next four years for that base to be brought voting Yes (in part reinforced by leaning SNP anyway)

The only significant shift in voters between 2011 and 2015 that has so far been measured was the shift in Catholic voters from being one of the weakest pools of support for the SNP to being the strongest (overtaking the Nones). This was Labour's fault. The Labour Party has never called itself or framed itself as a 'unionist' party. The fact we had a Labour Party in the early part of the 20th century effectively saved Scotland from the threat of Ulster style party political sectarianism. In one campaign (which it shockingly allowed itself to lead) Labour (unintentionally) alienated it's century old Catholic base without really thinking about the language it was using.

[DC Al Fine]

Afleitch, could you please elaborate on the language used that alienated Labour's Catholic base?

[afleitch]

Afleitch, could you please elaborate on the language used that alienated Labour's Catholic base?

Union. Flag. Queen. Tradition. British.

[DC Al Fine]

Afleitch, could you please elaborate on the language used that alienated Labour's Catholic base?

Union. Flag. Queen. Tradition. British.

Thank you.

[Phony Moderate]

Afleitch, could you please elaborate on the language used that alienated Labour's Catholic base?

Union. Flag. Queen. Tradition. British.

Thank you.

Most of those would alienate the average secularist, frankly.

[Clyde1998]

A few months before the referendum Labour topped the poll in Glasgow and much of the rest of the Central Belt in the European elections and in prior to that had been doing decently in by-elections; yes, Euro elections are a low turnout joke and yes by-elections are what they are, but I think not so much that we can't say this is indicative that something pretty substantial changed as a result of the referendum campaign. Obviously long term problems contributed heavily and obviously there were also seriously important medium term political changes, but...

There was a Panelbase poll conducted on the 29th Sep - 1st Oct last year that showed the SNP at 34% and Labour at 32% - nationally. The next Panelbase poll, a month later, showed a 45%-28% margin.

I believe that the short term aftermath of the referendum caused many people to move to the SNP - from all parties (Lab -4%; Con -3%; Lib -2% compared to the September poll). However, it didn't happen instantly; it appeared to happen after Lamont resigned - when she exposed the internal issues within the Scottish Labour Party.

[Clyde1998]

A new TNS poll was released quietly today.

Constitutency:
SNP - 58% (+2)
Lab - 24% (+3)
Con - 12% (N/C)
Lib - 4% (-2)
 
List:
SNP - 52% (N/C)
Lab - 25% (+2)
Con - 11% (N/C)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
Lib - 5% (-1)
 
Approval Ratings:
Nicola Sturgeon +19% (5% don't know who they are)
Kezia Dugdale -16% (46% don't know who they are)
Jeremy Corbyn -21% (21% don't know who they are)
Ruth Davidson -24%  (30% don't know who they are)
David Cameron -47% (2% don't know who they are)

Seats (using ScotlandVotes)
SNP - 77 (+8)
Lab - 33 (-4)
Con - 11 (-4)
Lib - 5 (N/C)
Grn - 3 (+1)
SNP Majority of 24.

[Phony Moderate]

So 98% of the Scottish electorate plans to vote for either an anti-austerity party, a party led by a lesbian or a social liberal party. Someone ought to tell Ben Carson to bomb the place.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

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Man, some leftist true disciples I know will have their heads explode if they see that result.

[Clyde1998]

So 98% of the Scottish electorate plans to vote for either an anti-austerity party, a party led by a lesbian or a social liberal party. Someone ought to tell Ben Carson to bomb the place.

They're pretty much your only options though.

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Man, some leftist true disciples I know will have their heads explode if they see that result.

There is a Panelbase poll that's going to be released over the weekend, and YouGov, Ipsos Mori and Survation are due a poll this month (based on the current cycles) - so we'll be able to check if that is backed up.

[afleitch]

Ipsos MORI (Con/List)

SNP 50/46
LAB 20/19
CON 18/16
LIB 7/8
GRN 3/7
UKIP 1/1
OTH 1/2

EU Referendum

REMAIN 65
LEAVE 22
DK 13

[IceAgeComing]

Labour being statistically tied with the Tories in Scotland is concerning: as much as I'm not a huge fan of Scottish Labour them potentially finishing behind the Tories isn't a good thing at all for Scotland.  .  I might vote for them on the constituency vote if they stand a good candidate but I don't trust my local Labour party to do anything good while I like my local MSP so it'll probably be an SNP/Green vote again although I've gone off the SNP in recent months.

I think we have a real shot at finishing in fourth in the list vote and a wee chance at equalling the Lib Dems number of MSPs, or getting incredibly close at least.  The Greens are putting up good candidates as number 1 in the list at least: we have a habit of occasionally standing... odd candidates but we don't seem to be doing that for the important places on the list this time!

[afleitch]

I think it's worth noting that the 24% Labour got in May included a lot of lent votes. This balances itself out somewhat with those votes moving to the Conservatives. I would be surprised if the Tories bested Labour in the constituency vote, though they might win more constituency seats. I can't see Labour falling below 20%; I think that is their floor. But if they are caught in terminal decline, and their vote share amongst under 60's remains abysmal, then they might start to shift southwards.

[IceAgeComing]

I don't think we can talk of terminal decline quite yet; every bold prediction I've seen in recent Scottish political history ("Losing the referendum will hurt the SNP!" + "The SNP will not win in 2011") were totally wrong, I don't . They're going to struggle sure especially as the SNP has taken most of the young talent and what remains is with the Greens in some places; and the Corbyn thing doesn't seem to have helped the grassroots in Scotland as it has elsewhere.  Labour could make a remarkable recovery a la the Canadian Liberals, although I don't see anyone in Scottish Labour who could be the Trudeau figure: it certainly isn't going to be Kezia.  Perhaps going all-in as a party of Unionism wasn't such a good idea after all...

20% seems like the right number for their floor: I also think that's the current ceiling for the Scottish Tories.  I don't see them winning many constituencies so losing out there wouldn't be too bad provided they hold up on the list: although it would be incredibly embarrassing.