Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Illiniwek]

Not sure if this has been discussed here, but is there any opinion on why Scottish Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems should/should not gather within one, somewhat progressive, party to oppose the SNP? Frankly, I just see the handwriting on the wall that Scotland will effectively be a one party state until they force independence. I get that politics, especially in Europe, does not have to fit into a neat, two party system. But would Scottish Labour and Conservatives really prefer letting SNP dominate for the foreseeable future rather than working together in a big tent coalition?

[Cassius]

Not sure if this has been discussed here, but is there any opinion on why Scottish Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems should/should not gather within one, somewhat progressive, party to oppose the SNP? Frankly, I just see the handwriting on the wall that Scotland will effectively be a one party state until they force independence. I get that politics, especially in Europe, does not have to fit into a neat, two party system. But would Scottish Labour and Conservatives really prefer letting SNP dominate for the foreseeable future rather than working together in a big tent coalition?

The short answer is yes.

To flesh that out a bit, quite apart from the uncertainty of the political positioning of such an arrangement (which party south of the border does a 'Unionist' party align itself with, and what kind of policies does a party that is an amalgam of the traditional three main parties of the UK put forth), most Labour and Conservative politicians and members would rather eat glass than be part of the same political party. The fact is, ultimately, aside from so-called swing voters, each party really and truly caters to a different type of person, and such people are not going to be comfortable with the idea of being forced into an artificial new party. Quite apart from that, campaigning on an explicitly 'unionist' platform, as the Labour party has, has certainly not done it any electoral favours, with the possible exception of gaining a handful of loan votes from the other anti-nationalist parties in a desperate attempt to stop the SNP juggernaut. I simply can't see a unionist party, one that would be riven by internal uncertainty over its policy direction and probably divided along old party lines doing any better than Labour is. It would probably be doing even worse.

[Illiniwek]

Not sure if this has been discussed here, but is there any opinion on why Scottish Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems should/should not gather within one, somewhat progressive, party to oppose the SNP? Frankly, I just see the handwriting on the wall that Scotland will effectively be a one party state until they force independence. I get that politics, especially in Europe, does not have to fit into a neat, two party system. But would Scottish Labour and Conservatives really prefer letting SNP dominate for the foreseeable future rather than working together in a big tent coalition?

The short answer is yes.

To flesh that out a bit, quite apart from the uncertainty of the political positioning of such an arrangement (which party south of the border does a 'Unionist' party align itself with, and what kind of policies does a party that is an amalgam of the traditional three main parties of the UK put forth), most Labour and Conservative politicians and members would rather eat glass than be part of the same political party. The fact is, ultimately, aside from so-called swing voters, each party really and truly caters to a different type of person, and such people are not going to be comfortable with the idea of being forced into an artificial new party. Quite apart from that, campaigning on an explicitly 'unionist' platform, as the Labour party has, has certainly not done it any electoral favours, with the possible exception of gaining a handful of loan votes from the other anti-nationalist parties in a desperate attempt to stop the SNP juggernaut. I simply can't see a unionist party, one that would be riven by internal uncertainty over its policy direction and probably divided along old party lines doing any better than Labour is. It would probably be doing even worse.

I guess I need to accept that this is the case. But I have no doubt then that that a strongly Conservative UK and an entirely SNP Scotland just spells inevitable independence. Labour is screwwwwwwwwed.

[Phony Moderate]

Scottish independence would happen within a couple of years of any unionist coalition/pact being formed.

[Clyde1998]

TNS Poll (16 Nov-14 Dec)


SNP 58 / 54 (NC / +2)
Lab 21 / 20 (-3 / -5)
Con 12 / 12 (NC / +1)
Grn -- / 9 (-- / +4)
Lib 4 / 4 (NC / -1)
UKIP -- / <1 (-- / -1)

[Clyde1998]

Wasn't expecting this: http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/14183055.Nicola_Sturgeon_pledges__quot_renewed_debate_quot__on_independence/

Does Sturgeon know something about support for independence that the rest of us don't know?

[afleitch]

I think they know their activist base are very hyped for independence, and they don't want to dissipate it by officially rejecting a referendum in the next parliament.

Is there any chance this RISE coalition will enter parliament?

RISE aren't registering in polls; Generic Socialists are getting less than 1%.

[Hnv1]

Scottish tories...who are they?

[Phony Moderate]

Scottish tories...who are they?

All ten of its members:

[afleitch]

Survation 8-12 January

The changes on the last poll is from September

Constituency/Region

SNP 52/42 (-1,0)
LAB 21/20 (-1,-1)
CON 16/16 (+2,+3)
LIB 7/8 (+1,+2)
GRN -/9 (-2)

[DC Al Fine]

I was wondering if any of the Brits could answer this question:

Afleitch mentioned the Scottish Episcopal Church in another thread. Anglicans are typically seen as the Tories at prayer, while non-conformists and Catholics have historically favoured the Liberals and Labour respectively.

However, in Scotland, the Anglicans are not the state church. Has this affected their voting patterns? I assume Anglicans of English origin tend to vote Tory, but what about the Scottish ones? Are they hardcore Tories, or do they tend towards other parties? I assume they don't like the SNP very much.

[tpfkaw]

I was wondering if any of the Brits could answer this question:

Afleitch mentioned the Scottish Episcopal Church in another thread. Anglicans are typically seen as the Tories at prayer, while non-conformists and Catholics have historically favoured the Liberals and Labour respectively.

However, in Scotland, the Anglicans are not the state church. Has this affected their voting patterns? I assume Anglicans of English origin tend to vote Tory, but what about the Scottish ones? Are they hardcore Tories, or do they tend towards other parties? I assume they don't like the SNP very much.

I'm not sure there are that many Scottish Anglicans. In one of history's great moments of irony, during the Jacobite controversy Parliament made it an act of treason for a Scot to be an Anglican.

[Hifly]

YouGov Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (1-4 Feb, changes from October)

Constituency:

SNP: 50% (-1)
CON: 20% (+1)
LAB: 19% (-2)

List:

SNP: 42% (-3)
CON: 20% (+1)
LAB: 20% (-)
 
Place your bets.

[Kingpoleon]

Not sure if this has been discussed here, but is there any opinion on why Scottish Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems should/should not gather within one, somewhat progressive, party to oppose the SNP? Frankly, I just see the handwriting on the wall that Scotland will effectively be a one party state until they force independence. I get that politics, especially in Europe, does not have to fit into a neat, two party system. But would Scottish Labour and Conservatives really prefer letting SNP dominate for the foreseeable future rather than working together in a big tent coalition?

Perhaps a Scottish Federalist Party is possible for Conservatives and Labour. The Liberal Democrats' best chance here is a pro-referendum, pro-autonomy SLDP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

lol

[afleitch]

TNS poll for completeness

Constituency ballot :


SNP 57% (-2)
Labour 21% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 3% (-1)


Regional list ballot :


SNP 52% (-1)
Labour 19% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (+6)
Greens 6% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)

[Clyde1998]

Independence
Yes - 43% (-2%)
No - 51% (+2%)
DK - 7% (+1%)

This is outside of YouGov's normal range since the referendum, so it could be a blip, or they've picked up an actual decline in independence support.

EU Membership
Remain - 55% (+4%)
Leave - 28% (-3%)
DK - 18% (+2%)

Around 2:1 majority for the Remain side at this stage, although the actual campaign would probably affect these figures.

Approval Ratings
David Cameron (Con) - Good 29%; Bad 64%; Net -35%
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) - Good 61%; Bad 31%; Net +30%
Kezia Dugdale (Lab) - Good 26%; Bad 44%; Net -18%
Ruth Davidson (Con) - Good 40%; Bad 36%; Net +4%

[Clyde1998]

How well or badly do you think the current Scottish government is handling the issue of...
Education/Schools - Good 51%; Bad 36%; Net +15%
Justice - Good 47%; Bad 39%; Net +8%
Economy - Good 47%; Bad 42%; Net +5%
NHS - Good 48%; Bad 44%; Net +4%
Police* - Good 40%; Bad 50%; Net -10%

*Question regarding Police was "And thinking about Police Scotland, do you think they are currently doing well or badly?"

The Scottish Government is expected to have full control over income tax by 2017. Would you support or oppose the following?
Increase rate of income tax, use money to improve public services - Support 53%; Oppose 37%; Net +17%
Increase rate of income tax, use money to increase benefits and tax credits - Support 26%; Oppose 62%; Net -26%
Cut rate of income tax, fund by reducing the money spent on public services -  Support 12%; Oppose 76%; Net -64%
Cut rate of income tax, fund by cutting benefits and tax credits - Support 27%; Oppose 62%; Net -35%

All things considered, do you think Scotland should accept more or fewer refugees than it is currently or is the number about right?
More - 24%
Fewer - 41%
About Right - 26%
Don't Know - 9%

Although responsibility for setting council tax levels rests with local authorities in Scotland, the Scottish Government has worked with authorities to freeze council tax since 2007. Do you think the Scottish Government should or should not have power to freeze council tax?
Should have power - 63%
Should not have power - 24%
Don't Know - 13%

Would you support or oppose the following?
Increase rate of council tax, use the money to improve local services - Support 54%; Oppose 36%; Net +18%
Cut rate of council tax, funded by reducing the money spent on local services - Support 12%; Oppose 73%; Net -61%

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos Mori/STV Poll:
Constituency ballot:
SNP 53% (+3)
Lab 20% (n/c)
Con 16% (-2)
Lib 6% (-1)

Regional list:
SNP 49% (+3)
Lab 19% (n/c)
Con 15% (-1)
Lib 8% (n/c)
Grn 6% (-1)

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 52.1% (-2.8)
No 47.9% (+2.8)

Imagine that the UK as a whole votes to leave the European Union in the referendum when voters in Scotland vote to remain in the European Union.  If this led to another Scottish independence referendum being held, how would you vote in response to the question ''Should Scotland be an independent country''?
Yes 57.7%
No 42.3%

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain 62% (-3)
Leave 26% (+4)
DK 12% (-1)

UK-wide
Remain 55% (-3)
Leave 36% (+4)
DK 9% (-1)

[Clyde1998]

TNS Poll:
Constituency: SNP 60% (+3), Lab 21% (±0), Con 13% (-4), Lib 4% (+1)
Regional: SNP 55% (+3), Lab 21% (+2), Con 13% (-4), Lib 4% (-2), Grn 6% (±0)

Survation Poll:
Constituency: SNP 54% (+1), Lab 21% (-1), Con 16% (n/c), Lib 5% (-1)
Regional: SNP 43% (-2), Lab 19% (+1), Con 14% (-1), Grn 9% (±0), Lib 7% (+1), UKIP 6% (±0)

Survation's Regional Vote Question has been criticized by John Curtice for making it sound like it's a second preference vote: "Your second vote will be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of Scotland by a form of proportional representation. If the election were tomorrow, which party would you be most likely to vote for with your second, regional list vote?"

[afleitch]

YouGov - trolololol?

Constituency ballot :

SNP 49% (-1)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Labour 19% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 43% (+1)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Labour 17% (-3)
Greens 8% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (+1)

Seat forecast.

SNP 70
CON 25
LAB 20
GRN 9
LIB 5

[afleitch]

Survation





Seat Projection

SNP 70
CON 22
LAB 21
GRN 9
LIB 6
UKIP 1

[Illiniwek]

I'm telling you...the Scotland will effectively be a one party state unless the Scottish unionists get together. Not enough Conservatives, and no need for Labour anymore....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's as much a 'need' for Labour as there ever was (SNP populism can only ever go so far), just evidently no place for Scottish Labour as it developed after the mid 1980s. Which is a significant problem; I honestly think the thing for them to do is mentally start from scratch.

Anyway you couldn't guarantee that even a majority of the remaining Labour vote would stay loyal to a United Unionist (urgh) party. Come to think of it, could you even be certain of a significant minority staying loyal?

Besides Scotland's future is going to be increasingly with these elections (whether in an independent state or some kind of semi-independent statelet) which are PR affairs anyway. The logic of UNITE THE ETC doesn't really apply so much.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm telling you...the Scotland will effectively be a one party state unless the Scottish unionists get together. Not enough Conservatives, and no need for Labour anymore....

err for one thing, although Labour is a unionist party they are certainly not a Unionist Party. Merging the "Better Together" parties would be disastrous and probably kill off the union for good.