Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Kingpoleon]

I'm telling you...the Scotland will effectively be a one party state unless the Scottish unionists get together. Not enough Conservatives, and no need for Labour anymore....

It might work better in theory than in practice. When the "Scottish Unionists" divide up into the more pro-Scotland, more pro-Nationalist camps, the left side and the right side, the SNP can be a left-libertarian sort which focuses on Scottish independence first and foremost. Only in a very autonomous Scotland is there any chance of Scotland no longer having the SNP as a major issue.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...the SNP can be a left-libertarian sort...

[Aboa]

Besides it's not like one party dominance is some kind of novel state of affairs in Scotland.

[IceAgeComing]

There's also the fact that lots of current Labour voters - or those that switched in 2011 or 15 for that matter - wouldn't vote for a "Scottish Unionist Party" whatever it'd be called.  My Dad is as close to a Labour tribalist as you can get and if that happened he'd vote SNP because for him the independence issues matters less than standard political issues, and on those even the Centrist Populist SNP would be better than some weird right-Labour/Tory mix up party.  You'd get an alternative centre-left party formed that'd take lots of the Labour vote, the rest probably goes between the Greens, the SNP or simply not voting and so you'd have spent loads of time and money entrenching the position of the SNP.  Labour may not be very popular in Scotland at the moment but I'd still say that the dislike of the Conservative Party is a lot deeper - that's why the silly "Red Tories!!" line worked so well - and there's a sizeable number of unionists that'd probably vote SNP if the main alternative was this frankenstein party: they'd just keep voting No in any independence referendum.  Its not a proposal that anyone with any knowledge of Scottish politics deeper than the independence issue would come up with!

Its important to remember that its only been eighteen months since the bloody referendum and the new Scotland Act hasn't even passed yet and that's going to play a role in the next Parliament.  The SNP will likely increase their majority in May but past that who knows: who'd have guessed five years ago that Labour "winning" the independence referendum would lead to them being basically wiped out at Westminster and relying on list votes in Holyrood!  Sure, Scotland could end up as a dominant party system for a long time: or we could be like Quebec and have semi-regular government changes, just that rather than relatively small changes the whole country goes together and you end up with majorities or large minorities very regularly.  The fact that the parliament is PR makes total rule unlikely since they'd lose their majority at some point in time and at that point they'd have to deal with the other parties - they technically could all come together and defeat them at that point but I don't think it would happen, with how badly Labour were hurt after collaborating with the Tories in the independence referendum, god only knows how few seats they'd have if they went into coalition with them...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the real (perhaps final) test for Scottish Labour may come in 2017 when the councils are up. I mean the (near-certain) loss of Glasgow would be the most symbolic, but if Labour councilors across the nation are routed the party is finished as an activist force.

[IceAgeComing]

They'll benefit a load from STV; if we still had FPTP for Council elections then they'd be wiped out in large parts of the country while with STV they will probably retain at least one councillor in wards that they won in 2012.  In Glasgow the SNP will probably put up some impressive numbers but I don't see how they'll be able to get the votes required to elect all the councillors in any ward without some weird preference flows or lots of exhausted ballots.  If Labour manage to get one per ward then that'd give them 22 councillors which would be a terrible result (five less than the SNP got last time), but they'd at least have a base of support to build on for the future...

[Phony Moderate]

So it seems that, by law, Scottish Labour leaders have to be utterly useless: http://youtu.be/qZAq3DeZFVY

[IceAgeComing]

Yeah she managed to answer that question in the worst possible way, saying "no!" .  Its a hard question for a Labour leader to answer, she'd have been panned in the unionist press had she been seen to be soft on the issue.  Perhaps just saying "The Labour manifesto will rule out another independence referendum for the next five years" by itself might have helped avoid the question, U dunno.  I didn't actually watch the debate (the STV player decided to not work when it was on, and I honestly don't have the time to watch a three hour election debate unless its something special) and I'm inclined to distrust anything posted from Wings but it doesn't seem like they took that out of context at all. 

Just before the debate the Greens announced their tax policies - basically it'd reduce income tax rates at the bottom and raise them significantly at the top, plus replacing the council tax with some other system of property tax which would lower rates at the bottom but significantly raise them at the top: plus apparently also implementing a system that would make it easier to introduce LVT in the future.  The Greens aren't very likely to be forming the government, but in the unlikely event that the SNP do badly and need to rely on Green votes on matters of supply they could shift SNP policy slightly to the left - although unfortunately I'm pretty sure they'd be just as likely to rely on Tory votes and concede some things to them...  It is interesting that they apparently admit that the 60p rate wouldn't actually increase revenue which suggests that they only put it in as a vote-getter: although the increased basic rate would probably increase revenue with people that would be less willing to leave (factoring in the first rate before it, people who earn over £26,000 would pay more, anyone under would pay less because of the lower rate).  I don't think that its important from the perspective of future Scottish government policy, it'll be interesting to see whether this helps them strip some of the more left-wing SNP support that might not like their less radical tax proposals...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Apparantly Tommy Sheridan's outfit is collapsing. Lol.

[Slow Learner]

Apparantly Tommy Sheridan's outfit is collapsing. Lol.

STOP TALKING TOMMY DOWN

[Phony Moderate]

So Kezia Dugdale just stated that she's in a relationship with a woman, which makes Labour the fourth major party in Scotland to currently have an LGBT leader (others being the Tories' Ruth Davidson, the Greens' Patrick Harvie and UKIP's David Coburn).

Hey, are those Christian Party nutters with that leader who stood a lot in Scotland still around?

[Slow Learner]

So Kezia Dugdale just stated that she's in a relationship with a woman, which makes Labour the fourth major party in Scotland to currently have an LGBT leader (others being the Tories' Ruth Davidson, the Greens' Patrick Harvie and UKIP's David Coburn).

Hey, are those Christian Party nutters with that leader who stood a lot in Scotland still around?

lmao did not know this

[IceAgeComing]

means that a majority of scotland's major political parties have lgbt leaders, I'd be interested in hearing whether or not that's a world first.  its nice that I can say that without having to count UKIP Scotland as a major party: because they aren't!

I do think that its nice that a statement like that which a couple of years ago would be a headline making statement is instead hidden in an article that focuses on her status on independence (apparently she'd support independence if the UK left the EU provided that Scotland was guaranteed EU membership, at least that's my reading of what she said), its nice that we can talk about actual important issues and not what sort of people our major world leaders want to screw

e: actually that's probably slightly less important that the other thing covered in the interview - apparently kezia could support independence if the uk left the EU, provided that scotland was guaranteed EU membership

[Phony Moderate]

So Kezia Dugdale just stated that she's in a relationship with a woman, which makes Labour the fourth major party in Scotland to currently have an LGBT leader (others being the Tories' Ruth Davidson, the Greens' Patrick Harvie and UKIP's David Coburn).

Major Party? How many elected representatives does UKIP have in Scotland?

Alright, parties who are represented in the televised debates.

[joevsimp]

was somebody supposedly putting around rumours and innuendos about her during the leadership campaign last year or am I misremembering something?

[afleitch]

I've known about Kezia for years in part because I am in social circles that in some edges overlap with hers. Good for her for being upfront about it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

was somebody supposedly putting around rumours and innuendos about her during the leadership campaign last year or am I misremembering something?

Yes

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

So Kezia Dugdale just stated that she's in a relationship with a woman, which makes Labour the fourth major party in Scotland to currently have an LGBT leader (others being the Tories' Ruth Davidson, the Greens' Patrick Harvie and UKIP's David Coburn).

Major Party? How many elected representatives does UKIP have in Scotland?

David Coburn, er, that's it.

[IceAgeComing]

Yeah, Coburn is the only UKIP elected person in Scotland, I'm pretty sure that's the only reason that they haven't replaced him with someone else at this point because I can't see how anyone could be attracted to UKIP by him,

There's an outside chance that they might be able to elect a list MSP this year (probably from the Highlands, I think that's where UKIP have done "well" in the past), although most polls are still in the 3-4% threshold where they'd be shut out unless there's a really localised swing.  I don't know whether the overlap of the referendum campaign and the Parliament elections will help or hurt them; I think that it might actually cost them votes if they decide to focus on the referendum instead of the May elections

[Phony Moderate]

Pretty sure I'm going to stick to BBC Scotland on election night; IIRC last time they actually gave some attention to the numbers, which is something that is getting rarer on the UK-wide BBC (both on general and local election nights). Plus it'll mean avoiding Jeremy Vine and his OTT graphics.

[Illiniwek]

Pretty sure I'm going to stick to BBC Scotland on election night; IIRC last time they actually gave some attention to the numbers, which is something that is getting rarer on the UK-wide BBC (both on general and local election nights). Plus it'll mean avoiding Jeremy Vine and his OTT graphics.

I had so much fun watching the referendum results on BBC Scotland, that last year I flipped back and forth between BBC and BBC scotland for the general. It was tough because I wanted results from across the uk, but I much preferred BBC Scotland's coverage. So I know who I'll be watching in May, June though I have no idea.

[IceAgeComing]

there'll only be the national coverage in June; I don't see why BBC Scotland would run their own for that referendum.  I never saw 2014 because I was in the pub all referendum night (despite the result it was fun, they had the results on but it was STV and on mute most of the time bar when something declared) but I thought that was a national BBC thing; at least they had Hew Edwards hosting the thing...

UKIP Scotland launched their manifesto today, its especially thin on the ground for actual policies on things that matter.  Basically; a tax cut for those earning over £46,000/year, repealing the public smoking ban in pubs, moving the drink drive limit up to what it was, and apparently pushing councils to provide free town centre parking.  I don't think that its a set of policies that will expand UKIP past their Scottish base.

[afleitch]

Vote Match thingy

http://www.scotvote16.com/#!/

Quite good because it, rightly, placed a lot of focus on constitutional issues.

Be sure to check out the drop down 'matrix', as it measures not only social-economic issues but constitutional issues v social/economic ones.

[Phony Moderate]

Greens 39
SNP  29
Labour 15
Lib Dems 13
UKIP -16
Tories -31

[reciprocity]

UKIP Scotland launched their manifesto today, its especially thin on the ground for actual policies on things that matter.  Basically; a tax cut for those earning over £46,000/year, repealing the public smoking ban in pubs, moving the drink drive limit up to what it was, and apparently pushing councils to provide free town centre parking.  I don't think that its a set of policies that will expand UKIP past their Scottish base.

UKIP - the party of British hedonism.....

Scotvote16 (P.S. The site may not work on Chrome browsers)

Green - 25
SNP - 18
LAB - 16
LIB - 11
UKIP - -6
CON - -8