Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[afleitch]

The election doesn't feel very 'electiony'. Oh and Edinburgh's schools are falling down.

[ilikeverin]

SNP - 26
Green - 25
Lib Dems - 21
Labour - 20
Cons - -4
UKIP - -14

SNP/Green swing voter sounds about right for me.

[Slow Learner]

Got the LibDems for some reason. Probably because I bollocked a few of the questions.

[joevsimp]

UKIP Scotland launched their manifesto today, its especially thin on the ground for actual policies on things that matter.  Basically; a tax cut for those earning over £46,000/year, repealing the public smoking ban in pubs, moving the drink drive limit up to what it was, and apparently pushing councils to provide free town centre parking.  I don't think that its a set of policies that will expand UKIP past their Scottish base.

UKIP - the party of British hedonism.....

going after those vital votes now that the Beer, Baccy and Crumpet party have disbanded


anyhoo, I appear to be in good company so far

Green - 46
SNP - 38
LAB - 37
LIB - 30
UKIP - -15
CON - -16

[Vosem]

UKIP 54
Tories 28
LibDems -4
Labour -5
Greens -30
SNP -39

Would probably vote Tory if I actually lived in Scotland; UKIP is far too focused on the issues of immigration and EU withdrawal for my tastes, and they also seem to be a bit of a joke party in Scotland anyway. Makes sense that I'm the closest to them ideologically, though.

[Phony Moderate]

UKIP 54
Tories 28
LibDems -4
Labour -5
Greens -30
SNP -39

Would probably vote Tory if I actually lived in Scotland; UKIP is far too focused on the issues of immigration and EU withdrawal for my tastes, and they also seem to be a bit of a joke party in Scotland anyway. Makes sense that I'm the closest to them ideologically, though.

You could of course vote for both if you wanted to.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Greens 39
SNP 30
Liberal Democrats 25
Labour 22
UKIP -17
Conservatives -18

[afleitch]

http://vote.cutbot.net/

A new seat forecaster. Also gives projected constituency results (now we actually know who's standing there)

[bore]

The election doesn't feel very 'electiony'. Oh and Edinburgh's schools are falling down.

I think that's the natural result of an election where the party that is in power with a huge majority will win with a similarly huge majority. And you've got the EU referendum sucking up any UK wide coverage.

Also my primary school (built in 2005) is one of the most seriously affected schools. That said its by no means just the PFI schools which are atrocious. Liberton High School (built sometime in the 60s IIRC) is probably the most notorious as a wall actually fell down in the girls changing room killing an S1, with a similar incident involving a pupil being seriously injured falling down the lift shaft. It's largely a case of wrecks replacing wrecks (My own secondary which is new but pre PFI seems fine but it's early days) As is often the case though, pretty much anything built after the war was a shoddy job. Maybe it's time to fire everyone involved and replace them with Victorians.

[Illiniwek]

Lib Dems - 26
Labour - 18
Green - 14
SNP - 10
UKIP - 2
Conservatives - 1

This checks out. SNP is actually a good party for me, except for the whole independence thing... But I think I am solidly a Lib Dem, which makes sense considering my ties to Scotland like in Lord Campbell of Pittenweem's constituency. Kind of surprised how low the Conservatives are though...

[afleitch]

What is worth saying is that we may have a legitimate battle for second place. Labour in third would be devastating for them.

[Oak Hills]

Vote Match thingy

http://www.scotvote16.com/#!/

Quite good because it, rightly, placed a lot of focus on constitutional issues.

Be sure to check out the drop down 'matrix', as it measures not only social-economic issues but constitutional issues v social/economic ones.

Lib Dems 28
Labour 19
SNP 17
Greens 17
Tories 5
UKIP 4

[jaichind]

UKIP 38
Tories 23
Labour -9
LibDems -13
Greens -22
SNP -26

If I could vote I will still vote Tories.  In many ways I like UKIP over Tories but for tactical reasons getting Tories into second place over Labour would be great. 

[IceAgeComing]

I can't be arsed to do it again but when I did that I basically had three groups of two parties - the Greens and the SNP first, then Labour and the Lib Dems followed by the Tories and UKIP well behind (I'm pretty sure both got quite big negative numbers) which isn't too surprising: I'm left wing and vaguely pro-independence (voted Yes in the referendum, but its not an issue that I see as particularly important although I think that if the UK votes to leave the EU that will change) and

I'm definitely voting Green on the list because they need every vote that they can get to guarantee an MSP in the region; I'm still unsure for the constituency and really need to look into the local Labour candidate to see if she's a good egg or not; Bruce Crawford is definitely going to win so its not exactly going to change anything, but if Labour did better in seats where they stood more left-wing candidates it might send a message to the party.  Not likely to happen really, but oh well...

[MaxQue]

I'm definitely voting Green on the list because they need every vote that they can get to guarantee an MSP in the region; I'm still unsure for the constituency and really need to look into the local Labour candidate to see if she's a good egg or not; Bruce Crawford is definitely going to win so its not exactly going to change anything, but if Labour did better in seats where they stood more left-wing candidates it might send a message to the party.  Not likely to happen really, but oh well...

She seems to be an environmentalist, working as a sustainability officer for Clackmannanshire Council.

[Clyde1998]

Vote Match thingy

http://www.scotvote16.com/#!/

Quite good because it, rightly, placed a lot of focus on constitutional issues.

Be sure to check out the drop down 'matrix', as it measures not only social-economic issues but constitutional issues v social/economic ones.

I got:
SNP 66
Grn 60
Lab 20
Lib 18
Con -34
UKIP -45

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (7-11 Apr):
SNP 50/45 (+5/+1 on 2011)
Lab 21/19 (-11/-7)
Con 19/18 (+5/+6)
Lib 5/5 (-3/NC)
Grn -/8 (-/+4)
UKIP -/3 (-/+2)
RISE -/1 (-/+1)

Panelbase (6-15 Apr):
SNP 51/47 (+6/+3 on 2011)
Lab 19/18 (-13/-8)
Con 18/19 (+4/+7)
Lib 5/4 (-3/-1)
Grn -/8 (-/+4)
UKIP -/3 (-/+2)
RISE -/1 (-/+1)

BMG (11-15 Apr):
SNP 53/46 (+8/+2 on 2011)
Lab 21/20 (-11/-6)
Con 16/16 (+2/+4)
Lib 6/6 (-2/+1)
Grn -/7 (-/+3)
UKIP -/4 (-/+3)
RISE -/0 (-/NC)

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 52.5/46.3 (+7.1/+2.3)
Lab 20.2/19.3 (-11.5/-7.0)
Con 16.7/16.5 (+2.8/+4.1)
Lib 5.7/6.0 (-2.2/+0.8)
Grn -/7.8 (-/+3.4)
UKIP -/2.7 (-/+1.8)
RISE -/0.8 (-/+0.4)

[afleitch]

[MaxQue]

Ah, af, I see that you only post polls good for Tories/bad for Labour.

[Hifly]

Ah, af, I see that you only post polls good for Tories/bad for Labour.

What's your prediction for May 5th?

[MaxQue]

Ah, af, I see that you only post polls good for Tories/bad for Labour.

What's your prediction for May 5th?

Ask me closer to election date, it's in 13 days.

[Clyde1998]

For the record, this is a Survation poll for the Daily Record.

In terms of seats, the ScotlandVotes calculator suggests:
SNP - 70 (+1)
Con - 21 (+6)
Lab - 20 (-17)
Grn - 12 (+10)
Lib - 6 (+1)
Oth - 0 (-1)

Oddly, the Cutbot calculator shows the Greens winning constituency seats in Glasgow and Edinburgh...

[Clyde1998]

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 53.0/46.2 (+0.5/-0.1 compared to last polling average)
Lab 19.7/19.0 (-0.5/-0.3)
Con 16.8/16.8 (+0.1/+0.3)
Lib 5.8/6.0 (+0.1/NC)
Grn -/8.0 (-/+0.2)
UKIP -/2.7 (-/NC)
RISE -/0.8 (-/NC)

[afleitch]

Ah, af, I see that you only post polls good for Tories/bad for Labour.

Err. The polls are all saying the same thing. And I've not voted Tory in 5 years.

[joevsimp]

Oddly, the Cutbot calculator shows the Greens winning constituency seats in Glasgow and Edinburgh...

we really ought to start standing in constituency seats, if we're hitting 8 to 10% then we'll be saving enough deposits.  not in Wales yet though, maybe Cardiff and Ceredigion.