Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #150 on: April 22, 2016, 02:51:51 PM »


Oddly, the Cutbot calculator shows the Greens winning constituency seats in Glasgow and Edinburgh... Undecided

we really ought to start standing in constituency seats, if we're hitting 8 to 10% then we'll be saving enough deposits.  not in Wales yet though, maybe Cardiff and Ceredigion.
I think Patrick Harvie said that this will probably be the last election where the Greens don't stand in most constituencies. It will be very interesting to see the difference between the constituency and list vote for the Greens in the three constituencies that they are standing in.

The Greens have a constituency candidates in Kelvin, where they came 3rd on the list last time, Edinburgh Central, where they came 4th last time (coming within 1,500 votes of coming 2nd) and Coatbridge (the candidate being John Wilson, who came 2nd with the SNP in 2011).

Using the 2011 List Vote as a guide to show how may deposits each party would retain if all parties stood in each constituency (although, obviously, people don't always vote the same way on each ballot):
SNP - 73
Lab - 73
Con - 66
Lib - 22
Grn - 19

Given that the Greens are on, likely, double what they got in 2011, the case can be made that the Greens probably should stand constituency candidates, even if they do lose a couple of deposits here and there.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #151 on: April 22, 2016, 03:45:33 PM »

I think that the strategy this time seems to be sound: focus on the list except in the places where we have a shot of winning.  Those three seats are probably the best for the Greens in the country (Coatbridge only because of the candidate really; the other two are city seats with very large student votes: a good thing for the Greens).  I think that Pat comes close in Kelvin; there's lots of enthusiasm there and he's one of the more popular politicians in Scotland - probably the most popular outside of the SNP - and he's standing in a seat where the Greens should be able to pick up a decent number of votes.  I'm not willing to say about Edinburgh Central because I've not been there: in Coatbridge I think that third is probably the best that we'd manage: the SNP will win and Labour will finish second unless something odd happens.

It probably doesn't actually matter if we win a constituency in terms of our total representation: it might make it easier to get a second Glasgow seat on the list but I did the maths on that a while back and it was negligible (about half a percent I think).  It'd be of huge symbolic value though, and that's a good thing!

One thing that I'd like them to consider before they start standing constituency seats more often is whether people are sure about what both votes mean exactly: I've met people that think that you can't vote for the same party on both bits of the ballot paper and that the second vote is a second preference of some kind - although "Both Votes SNP" might help to shake this slightly.  I wouldn't want people to vote Green on the constituency ballot and think that they can't on the list, which is where we really need all the votes that we can...
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #152 on: April 22, 2016, 04:15:04 PM »

I think that the strategy this time seems to be sound: focus on the list except in the places where we have a shot of winning.  Those three seats are probably the best for the Greens in the country (Coatbridge only because of the candidate really; the other two are city seats with very large student votes: a good thing for the Greens).  I think that Pat comes close in Kelvin; there's lots of enthusiasm there and he's one of the more popular politicians in Scotland - probably the most popular outside of the SNP - and he's standing in a seat where the Greens should be able to pick up a decent number of votes.  I'm not willing to say about Edinburgh Central because I've not been there: in Coatbridge I think that third is probably the best that we'd manage: the SNP will win and Labour will finish second unless something odd happens.

It probably doesn't actually matter if we win a constituency in terms of our total representation: it might make it easier to get a second Glasgow seat on the list but I did the maths on that a while back and it was negligible (about half a percent I think).  It'd be of huge symbolic value though, and that's a good thing!

One thing that I'd like them to consider before they start standing constituency seats more often is whether people are sure about what both votes mean exactly: I've met people that think that you can't vote for the same party on both bits of the ballot paper and that the second vote is a second preference of some kind - although "Both Votes SNP" might help to shake this slightly.  I wouldn't want people to vote Green on the constituency ballot and think that they can't on the list, which is where we really need all the votes that we can...
What was interesting in 2011 is that the polls showed the SNP 7% lower on the list than the constituency vote, but when polling day came - they were only 1% lower on the list than they were on constituency vote. The only downside to the Greens not running in both ballots is that people may decide to vote for a single party (ie. same party on both constituency and list votes), but would vote Green in both if they ran a candidate in their constituency.

You need (roughly) 10/11% in a region to win two seats in that region - I would think that Glasgow would be strong for the Greens on the list, so I think they should win two seats there.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #153 on: April 22, 2016, 04:28:24 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2016, 04:36:06 PM by Clyde1998 »

Survation Net Favourably Ratings (Excluding Don't Knows)Sad
Nicola Sturgeon +24% (3% don't know)
Patrick Harvie -3% (36% DK)
Ruth Davidson -12% (22% DK)
Willie Rennie -13% (12% DK)
Jeremy Corbyn -15% (19% DK)
Kezia Dugdale -16% (6% DK)
Tim Farron -24% (39% DK)
David Cameron -47% (2% DK)

Survation Trust on EU (Excluding Don't Knows)Sad
Nicola Sturgeon +18% (3% DK)
Jeremy Corbyn -13% (5% DK)
Gordon Brown -14% (3% DK)
Boris Johnson -24% (3% DK)
Alistair Darling -25% (7% DK)
Tim Farron -27% (33% DK)
David Cameron -44% (2% DK)
Nigel Farage -49% (5% DK)
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Hifly
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« Reply #154 on: April 27, 2016, 07:40:38 AM »

Ipsos MORI 18-25 April

Constituency:

SNP: 51%
Labour: 19%
Tory: 18%
Lib: 6%
Other: 6%

Regional:

SNP: 45%
Tory: 19%
Labour: 17%
Green: 10%
Lib: 7%
Other: 2%

Here's the forecast:

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Clyde1998
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« Reply #155 on: April 27, 2016, 09:43:25 AM »

Following the aforementioned Ipsos Mori poll:

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 52.3/45.5 (-0.7/-0.7 compared to last polling average)
Lab 19.5/18.7 (-0.2/-0.3)
Con 17.2/17.5 (+0.4/+0.7)
Lib 5.8/5.8 (NC/-0.2)
Grn -/8.7 (-/+0.7)
UKIP -/2.7 (-/NC)
RISE -/0.8 (-/NC)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 71 (-1 on last average*/+2 on 2011)
Con 22 (+3/+7)
Lab 21 (-3/-16)
Grn 9 (+1/+7)
Lib 6 (NC/+1)

*I didn't post the seat calculation last time.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #156 on: April 27, 2016, 09:48:44 AM »




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reciprocity
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« Reply #157 on: April 27, 2016, 05:46:00 PM »

Is Sturgeon the best party leader in the UK today? She seems pretty competent in comparison to the others. She has actually managed to make anti-austerity policies popular.
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« Reply #158 on: April 27, 2016, 05:54:13 PM »

She's a good politician. Not necessarily a compliment, mind.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #159 on: April 27, 2016, 06:54:49 PM »

Is Sturgeon the best party leader in the UK today? She seems pretty competent in comparison to the others. She has actually managed to make anti-austerity policies popular.

It's easy to make anti-austerity policies popular; it's another thing to get people to vote for such policies.
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reciprocity
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« Reply #160 on: April 27, 2016, 09:52:02 PM »

Is Sturgeon the best party leader in the UK today? She seems pretty competent in comparison to the others. She has actually managed to make anti-austerity policies popular.

It's easy to make anti-austerity policies popular; it's another thing to get people to vote for such policies.

Tell that to Corbyn. Plus people are voting for her.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #161 on: April 28, 2016, 04:11:52 AM »

Is Sturgeon the best party leader in the UK today? She seems pretty competent in comparison to the others. She has actually managed to make anti-austerity policies popular.

It's easy to make anti-austerity policies popular; it's another thing to get people to vote for such policies.

Tell that to Corbyn. Plus people are voting for her.

Many people do generally like the idea of anti-austerity policies, but many of them (at least in rUK, and that was my point) just don't (for a variety of reasons) vote for such policies come election time. Hardline immigration policy has also long been popular, yet UKIP has never won more than a single seat in a general election and the BNP never placed higher than third in a parliamentary seat.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #162 on: April 28, 2016, 05:19:56 AM »
« Edited: April 28, 2016, 06:25:22 AM by joevsimp »

I think I've worked out where cutbot is getting the Greens winning Glasgow Kelvin and/or Edinburgh Central from. Latest poll says 6% for Others, but there is not really anyewher for that to go: 3 Greens, 6 TUSC candidates, 8 indies and 3 parties running one candidate each.  Then it's algorithm is assigning most of that to the Greens based on the regional vote.

Edit: it seems that I am completely wrong.  They are using the list vote from 2011 in the three seats we are contesting as a baseline and calculating the fptp vote by extrapolating it from the list vote

Come election night I think the Other vote for constituencies will drop much closer to the 1.1% that it was last time and Harvie will take a respectable second place
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #163 on: April 28, 2016, 05:11:07 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2016, 05:19:17 PM by Clyde1998 »

Come election night I think the Other vote for constituencies will drop much closer to the 1.1% that it was last time and Harvie will take a respectable second place
This. I think a lot of people are saying they'll vote for another party with their constituency vote, but will get to the polling station and release that they can only vote for one of four parties.

TNS Poll (1-24 April)Sad
SNP 52/45 (-4/-2 on last TNS Poll)
Lab 22/22 (+3/+1)
Con 17/18 (+2/+3)
Lib 7/5 (+1/-1)
Grn -/8 (-/NC)
RISE -/1 (-/-1)
UKIP -/0 (-/-1)

This completes TNS's move in line with other pollsters. As happens with every election in the UK everyone is now showing pretty much the same thing: SNP on around 51-53%, Labour and Conservatives in a close battle for second (with Labour slightly ahead) and the Greens and Lib Dems in a race for fourth (with the Greens slightly ahead).

It's worth noting that the early data from TNS's poll is from nearly a month ago.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #164 on: April 28, 2016, 05:15:07 PM »

Following the aforementioned TNS poll:

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 51.7/45.2 (-0.7/-0.3 on last average)
Lab 20.0/18.8 (+0.5/+0.2)
Con 17.5/18.0 (+0.3/+0.5)
Lib 6.0/5.7 (+0.2/-0.2)
Grn -/8.7 (-/NC)
UKIP -/2.5 (-/-0.2)
RISE -/0.6 (-/-0.2)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 70 (-1 on last average/+1 on 2011)
Con 23 (+1/+87)
Lab 21 (NC/-16)
Grn 9 (NC/+7)
Lib 6 (NC/+1)
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #165 on: May 01, 2016, 05:33:50 PM »

Panelbase/Sunday Times (23-28 Apr)
SNP 49/44 (-2/-3)
Lab 23/22 (+4/+3)
Con 17/19 (-1/NC)
Lib 6/4 (+1/NC)
Grn 3/6 (-1/-2)
UKIP -/3 (-/NC)
RISE -/2 (-/+1)

Very interesting...

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 51.3/44.7 (-0.4/-0.5 on last average)
Lab 20.7/19.5 (+0.7/+0.7)
Con 17.3/18.0 (-0.2/NC)
Lib 6.2/5.7 (+0.2/NC)
Grn -/8.3 (-/-0.4)
UKIP -/2.6 (-/+0.1)
RISE -/0.8 (-/+0.2)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 70 (NC on last average/+1 on 2011)
Con 23 (NC/+8)
Lab 22 (+1/-15)
Grn 8 (-1/+6)
Lib 6 (NC/+1)
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reciprocity
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« Reply #166 on: May 02, 2016, 05:43:00 AM »

Is Sturgeon the best party leader in the UK today? She seems pretty competent in comparison to the others. She has actually managed to make anti-austerity policies popular.

It's easy to make anti-austerity policies popular; it's another thing to get people to vote for such policies.

I agree with you but it seems that Sturgeon has fought off any desire to make immigration the issue in Scotland. In England, that isn't the case.

Tell that to Corbyn. Plus people are voting for her.

Many people do generally like the idea of anti-austerity policies, but many of them (at least in rUK, and that was my point) just don't (for a variety of reasons) vote for such policies come election time. Hardline immigration policy has also long been popular, yet UKIP has never won more than a single seat in a general election and the BNP never placed higher than third in a parliamentary seat.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #167 on: May 02, 2016, 06:47:35 AM »

I agree with you but it seems that Sturgeon has fought off any desire to make immigration the issue in Scotland. In England, that isn't the case.

That's because Scotland is the whitest part of Great Britain. Emigration has made a bigger mark on Scottish society over the past century than immigration...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #168 on: May 02, 2016, 06:57:35 AM »

Anyway, Sturgeon is a tremendously talented bullsh!tter (even better than Salmond was) capable of making cardboard look like gold (and what she can do that Salmond couldn't is somehow give off the impression that even she herself believes that, yes, that cardboard is gold, why on earth would you suggest that it is cardboard?) and clearly has solid tactical instincts (a lot of politicians don't). In terms of actual governance she does not impress, but happily for her and the SNP the opposition is such a joke that this does not actually matter.
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reciprocity
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« Reply #169 on: May 02, 2016, 07:15:41 AM »

I agree with you but it seems that Sturgeon has fought off any desire to make immigration the issue in Scotland. In England, that isn't the case.

That's because Scotland is the whitest part of Great Britain. Emigration has made a bigger mark on Scottish society over the past century than immigration...

If that was the case then why is UKIP making inroads in Wales and not Scotland? Wales has very similar demographics to Scotland. I have no idea about Welsh emigration in comparison to Scotland though so maybe that is a factor.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #170 on: May 02, 2016, 07:26:01 AM »

If that was the case then why is UKIP making inroads in Wales and not Scotland?

Because Wales isn't Scotland. Amongst other things (and there are a lot of things) it is integrated (socially, economically, culturally etc) with England to an infinitely greater extent and while it does have a nationalist party it doesn't have one that's a massive catch-all affair that polled 50% of the vote in a General Election.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #171 on: May 02, 2016, 09:22:03 AM »

I also think that UKIPs type of nationalism (the "British" part rather than the more ethnically focused approach; the latter is more present among grass-roots SNP people even though it isn't really among the leadership of the SNP) is not something that's ever going to work very well in Scotland, if only because for a majority of Scots the British identity is either a secondary one or non existent.  Add in UKIPs primary policy positions either not being very important for Scots voters (immigration) or unpopular (Brexit) and sprinkle in two unpopular leaders (especially Coburn who no one likes, not even UKIP members) and you get the reason why UKIP are polling at around 2% in Scotland while in the rest of Great Britain they are in the teens.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #172 on: May 02, 2016, 04:55:43 PM »

If that was the case then why is UKIP making inroads in Wales and not Scotland?

Because Wales isn't Scotland. Amongst other things (and there are a lot of things) it is integrated (socially, economically, culturally etc) with England to an infinitely greater extent and while it does have a nationalist party it doesn't have one that's a massive catch-all affair that polled 50% of the vote in a General Election.
National Identity: English Only (2011 Census)
Scotland - 2.3%
Wales - 11.2%

There are more people in Wales who would associate with England than there would be in Scotland. Wales seems somewhat less detached from London politics than Wales, as a result - hence why UKIP are able to do as well as they are in Wales.
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afleitch
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« Reply #173 on: May 02, 2016, 05:23:44 PM »

North Wales isn't South Wales. English Wales isn't Welsh Wales.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #174 on: May 03, 2016, 05:42:30 AM »
« Edited: May 03, 2016, 06:14:49 AM by Clyde1998 »

Survation/Daily Record Telephone Poll (1-2 May)
SNP 49/44 (-4/+1)
Lab 21/19 (+3/+2)
Con 19/20 (+2/+2)
Lib 7/6 (NC/+1)
Grn -/7 (-/-4)
UKIP -/2 (-/-2)

It's important to note that Survation haven't, to my knowledge, conducted a telephone poll for this election before. The changes are compared to the previous Survation online opinion poll and, therefore, should be taken with caution.

What is interesting is this is the third poll this year to show the SNP below 50% on the constituency ballot, and the second in the space of 48 hours.

EDIT: Additionally, Survation have changed the wording of the list vote question from Your second vote will be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of Scotland by a form of proportional representation. If the election were tomorrow, which party would you be most likely to vote for with your second, regional list vote? to Your other vote will be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of Scotland by a form of proportional representation. If the election were tomorrow, which party would you be most likely to vote for with your regional list vote? - which would explain the rise in the SNP, Labour and Conservative list vote, as some people may have thought previously that they were being asked about a second preference vote.

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 50.7/44.8 (-0.7/+0.2 on last average)
Lab 21.2/19.8 (+0.5/+0.3)
Con 17.7/18.3 (+0.3/+0.3)
Lib 6.2/5.5 (NC/-0.2)
Grn -/7.7 (-/-0.7)
UKIP -/2.3 (-/-0.3)
RISE -/0.8 (-/NC)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 70 (NC on last average/+1 on 2011)
Lab 24 (+2/-13)
Con 24 (+1/+9)
Grn 7 (-1/+5)
Lib 4 (-2/-1)
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