Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Phony Moderate]

Also worth noting that 78% in that poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote....which suggests that turnout could be over 60%, by far a record for the Scottish Parliament.

[Clyde1998]

Also worth noting that 78% in that poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote....which suggests that turnout could be over 60%, by far a record for the Scottish Parliament.

The TNS poll suggested around 65% would vote - which is probably the most accurate figure we are going to get pre-election given that TNS conduct their polls face-to-face. It'll be up 15% if that's the case.

TNS showed the EU membership referendum turnout to be heading towards 85%, as well, in Scotland. That would be touch and go for beating the independence referendum turnout...

[reciprocity]

I am a bit confused at how a majority of scots support a new Independence ref but the majority would just vote against it again. Do Scots now have passion of electoral type things?

[bore]

I am a bit confused at how a majority of scots support a new Independence ref but the majority would just vote against it again. Do Scots now have passion of electoral type things?

Presumably the thinking among the No voters who'd want a referendum is if it happens again and No wins the Yes voters will have to shut up about it, as they promised to do before the last one, for the next 20 or 30 years at least.

[afleitch]

I am a bit confused at how a majority of scots support a new Independence ref but the majority would just vote against it again. Do Scots now have passion of electoral type things?

Presumably the thinking among the No voters who'd want a referendum is if it happens again and No wins the Yes voters will have to shut up about it, as they promised to do before the last one, for the next 20 or 30 years at least.

We promised nothing

[Clyde1998]

YouGov Poll (2-4 May)
SNP 48/41 (-2/-4)
Lab 22/19 (+1/NC)
Con 19/20 (+1/+2)
Lib 7/6 (+2/+1)
Grn 2/9 (-1/+1)
UKIP 2/4 (NC/+1)
RISE 0/1 (NC/NC)

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 50.3/44.2 (-0.3/-0.7 on last average)
Lab 21.3/19.8 (+0.2/NC)
Con 17.7/18.7 (NC/+0.3)
Lib 6.5/5.7 (+0.3/+0.2)
Grn -/7.8 (-/+0.2)
UKIP -/2.4 (-/+0.2)
RISE -/0.8 (-/NC)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 70 (NC on last average/+1 on 2011)
Con 23 (-1/+8)
Lab 22 (-2/-15)
Grn 8 (+1/+6)
Lib 6 (+2/+1)

[Clyde1998]

YouGov
Independence: Yes 41; No 48; WNV 3; DK 9 (Yes 46; No 54)
EU Membership: Remain 49; Leave 32; WNV 4; DK 15 (Remain 61; Leave 39)

Approval Ratings:
Sturgeon +26
Davidson +8
Dugdale -18
Corbyn -32
Cameron -42

Government Approval:
Overall +7
Justice +10
NHS +9
Education +7
Economy +7
Police -7

Thinking back over the election campaign, do you think <Party>'s election campaign has been mostly positive, or mostly negative? (Net Positive)
SNP +22
Con -13
Lab -16

And do you think <Party> election campaign has been mostly honest, or mostly dishonest? (Net Honest)
SNP +12
Lab -2
Con -7

Which of the following do you think should be the main priorities for the next Scottish government? Please tick up to three.
Improving Health Service - 51
Boosting the Economy - 43
Creating Jobs - 38
Improving Education/Schools - 35
Fighting UK Gov's Austerity - 23
Providing More Affordable Housing - 23
Reducing Taxes - 13
Reducing Crime - 12
Getting Rid of Trident - 12
Making Case for Independence - 10
Protecting Environment - 8

[Clyde1998]

I'm going to predict the SNP will lose their majority, but will form minority government.

(I'm an SNP member, btw)

[jaichind]

I assume BBC is covering this live at 5pm.  Will they come out with exit polls at 5pm for  Scottish Parliament (and I assume Welsh Parliament and London Mayor)?

[Phony Moderate]

I assume BBC is covering this live at 5pm.  Will they come out with exit polls at 5pm for  Scottish Parliament (and I assume Welsh Parliament and London Mayor)?

It starts at 6:45PM Eastern time. No, there won't be any exit polls as such; they are only done for general elections nowadays. Sad as back in the day they were even done for by-elections.

[jaichind]

I assume BBC is covering this live at 5pm.  Will they come out with exit polls at 5pm for  Scottish Parliament (and I assume Welsh Parliament and London Mayor)?

It starts at 6:45PM Eastern time. No, there won't be any exit polls as such; they are only done for general elections nowadays. Sad as back in the day they were even done for by-elections.

Thanks.  Also when will results start tricking in ? I assume around 11pm?

[Phony Moderate]

I assume BBC is covering this live at 5pm.  Will they come out with exit polls at 5pm for  Scottish Parliament (and I assume Welsh Parliament and London Mayor)?

It starts at 6:45PM Eastern time. No, there won't be any exit polls as such; they are only done for general elections nowadays. Sad as back in the day they were even done for by-elections.

Thanks.  Also when will results start tricking in ? I assume around 11pm?

Not sure what time, but I recall Rutherglen (which Labour won) being the first in 2011.

Worth noting that the results in the UK as a whole will trickle in over the next three days due to the sheer number of different elections; the PCC elections will probably come in last.

[IceAgeComing]

Results are very late for the Scottish Parliament elections; first one was 2am (all times BST, pretty sure the conversion is five hours for EDT but I don't know for certain) last time, can't imagine that it'll be any quicker this year.  The regional votes are even longer; I'm pretty sure Glasgow was the first at past 5am five years ago; the Highlands region is usually last and declares the next morning.  Probably longer if turnout is up much.  Apparently the reason for this is because they have to verify the constituency and list votes at the same time to make sure that they catch votes that have been put in the wrong box; and because of our brilliant way of counting the votes they can't start actually counting the votes until they've completed verification, separated the votes and mixed them both: they do that to prevent anyone from working out how any individual polling place voted, I'm pretty sure its something unique to the UK.

In terms of TV coverage; the UK wide stuff starts after question time at 11:45 on BBC1; Scotland and Wales have their own coverage (Scotland's is 10:30 on BBC 1 Scotland, I'm not sure about Wales), I don't think that NI does because they usually count the Assembly elections the day after since hand counting STV takes days anyway.  STV's political stuff has gotten a lot better recently (pre-referendum it was basically non-existent), they're doing election coverage as well and that might be worth keeping an eye on.  Sky have coverage from the close of the polls; but the first few hours of that won't have any major results to talk about, so I'd skip it.  I'm probably going to watch Question Time and switch to BBC Scotland after that, I'm happy skipping an hour of useless chit chat...

[Illiniwek]

I love to watch the BBC Scotland coverage. I'll be watching through the night while most of Scotland sleeps i(including my fiancée who's visiting)

[afleitch]

I'm going to predict the SNP will lose their majority, but will form minority government.

(I'm an SNP member, btw)

Bear in mind, if the SNP win 65 of the 73 constituencies they have a majority without the list votes even being counted.

[Phony Moderate]

I'm going to predict the SNP will lose their majority, but will form minority government.

(I'm an SNP member, btw)

Bear in mind, if the SNP win 65 of the 73 constituencies they have a majority without the list votes even being counted.

And then there's the Greenies too.

[bore]

Scattered predictions and hot takes to brag about if I'm right and never mention if I'm wrong:

Labour will gain my seat of Edinburgh Southern, and lose every other seat.  Though they will be close in East Lothian, Edinburgh North and Leith and Coatbridge and Chryston (this is the odd one out because the SNP candidate is so terrible.

The Conservatives will have the night they always have in scotland and get about 20 seats. Labour will be comfortably ahead with roughly 27, the SNP will get around 70, the lib dems around 7 and the greens around 7. UKIP will be almost non existent and RISE (lol) will be even worse.

The SNP will hold Edinburgh Central (due to a split field) and Glasgow Kelvin comfortably (although Harvie will be in a strong 2nd place)

The Greens will gain 2 seats on the glasgow list and only 1 on the edinburgh list they will get 1 in most other areas of the country too.

The Lib Dems will gain Edinburgh West and hold orkney and shetland.

The tories will hold all their constituencies apart from Ayr.

[IceAgeComing]

The Lib Dems will not gain Edinburgh West: they'll probably struggle to hold both of Orkney and Shetland

[bore]

The Lib Dems will not gain Edinburgh West: they'll probably struggle to hold both of Orkney and Shetland

The whole point of bold predictions is if you're wrong then everyone forgets but if you're right you're hailed as a genius.

Anyway the Edinburgh West SNP is wildly unpopular for obvious reasons, the lib dems are really active in Edinburgh West, they did much better in the westminster constituency than anyone expected and it is, like the rest of edinburgh, after all, a unionist stronghold so there will probably be a squeeze on the tories and labour.

[Clyde1998]

I'm going to predict the SNP will lose their majority, but will form minority government.

(I'm an SNP member, btw)

Bear in mind, if the SNP win 65 of the 73 constituencies they have a majority without the list votes even being counted.

I know. I feel that the SNP will fall short in some constituencies and the "tactical voting on the list" will backfire - the SNP may pick up almost no seats on the list.

We'll see though.

[Clyde1998]

Labour will gain my seat of Edinburgh Southern

You may well be right. It is a three-way marginal though (between SNP [29.4% in 2011], Labour [27.4%] & Lib Dem [24.6%]), so any unionist tactical voting could be interesting there.

[Clyde1998]

BBC suggesting that Rutherglen may declare around midnight.

[bore]

By the way me and others will be discussing the election in IRC tonight, link here: client02.chat.mibbit.com

Type in your username next to nick and "#atlasforum" next to channel

Labour will gain my seat of Edinburgh Southern

You may well be right. It is a three-way marginal though (between SNP [29.4% in 2011], Labour [27.4%] & Lib Dem [24.6%]), so any unionist tactical voting could be interesting there.

Yes. My thinking is the lib dem vote will crater due to them no longer running a popular incumbent, with labour picking up most of that vote, the tories staying roughly where they are and the SNP increasing by a bit but not by enough.

[Clyde1998]

ITV Border are suggesting that Labour will lose Dumfries (currently their safest seat in Scotland).

By the way me and others will be discussing the election in IRC tonight, link here: client02.chat.mibbit.com

Type in your username next to nick and "#atlasforum" next to channel

I'll join you guys later - when we start getting some results in.

[Clyde1998]

Labour insiders are reporting that Rutherglen has been gained by the SNP.