Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Hifly]

Perhaps it's not the most efficient thing to simply repeat what everyone has been expecting throughout the night.

[Clyde1998]

Orkney turnout: 62% (+13%)

[Clyde1998]

Rutherglen turnout: 54.5% (+6.8%)

[afleitch]

Scotland rundown

Labour being hammered in Glasgow and Fife. Labour also apparently 'neck and neck' with the Greens on the Lothian list vote. Edinburgh West close. Morningside Scottish Labour might take Edinburgh Southern.

Labour probably out of contention in Dumfriesshire and in Eastwood where it's an SNP/Tory fight

Tories think they might take 2 seats on the Glasgow List

Greens (Harvie) running ahead of Labour in Glasgow Kelvin

[afleitch]

Edinburgh Southern apparently a three way tussle

Edinburgh Central between SNP/Tories (Ruth Davidson)

[jaichind]

Edinburgh Southern 3 way Tory SNP Labour according to Sky. About the only constituency Labour can win in Scotland 

[Clyde1998]

Edinburgh Southern 3 way Tory SNP Labour according to Sky. About the only constituency Labour can win in Scotland 

Pretty much - they won the equivalent Westminster seat last year.

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Decides (‏@ScotDecides)
STV CALL: SNP are set to GAIN Rutherglen #sp16

[Clyde1998]

Orkney
Lib - 7,096 (67.4%; +31.6)
SNP - 2,562 (24.3%; -0.8)
Con - 435 (4.1%; -4.3)
Lab - 304 (2.9%; -2.7)
Ind - 137 (1.3%; +1.3)

Swing - 16% from SNP to Lib

[Phony Moderate]

SNP gain Rutherglen, 4,000 odd majority.

[Clyde1998]

Rutherglen
SNP - 15,222 (46%; +7)
Lab - 11,479 (35%; -11)
Con - 3,718 (11%; +4)
Lib - 2,533 (8%; +3)

Swing - 9% from Lab to SNP

[seb_pard]

Labour gain Edinburgh South from the SNP according to twitter

[jaichind]

Labour gain Edinburgh South from the SNP according to twitter

If so there must have been LD tactical voting for LAB.

[reciprocity]

This is getting interesting. Edinburgh South, Patrick Harvie's supposed second placing in his constituency vote and Con's gaining on Lab in Eastwood.

[jaichind]

Things are looking pretty good for the CON to emerge as the second largest party over LAB.

[jaichind]

I assume the dynamic of the CON vote share will over perform LAB vote share on the list vote relative to the constituency vote is related to Scottish Green list vote will vote LAB in the constituency vote.   

[IceAgeComing]

most of the Greens list vote will be from the SNP, some from Labour.  Although the Tories will probably lose a fair amount of constituency votes to UKIP

[reciprocity]

WOW Willie Rennie wins his constituency vote! This is such a strange election.

[MaxQue]

So did...

Iain Gray, of all people.

[Illiniwek]

WOW Willie Rennie wins his constituency vote! This is such a strange election.

Yay Lib Dem for North East Fife!

I'm satisfied for this election.

[JerryArkansas]

Labour is collapsing in their constituency's.  Haven't look at vote totals, but they are losing seats left and right to the Conservatives.  Lib Dems doing much better than I would have expected.

[Illiniwek]

Wow Edinburgh is not feeling SNP this year.

[joevsimp]

three regions declared so far, Tories comfortably ahead of Labour in Lothian and Mid/Fife, Greens safely ahead of Lib Dems and gaining a seat in each of those and holding our seats we had already in Glasgow and Lothian

[freefair]

Opposition report
CON GAIN  Aberdeenshire West from SNP-
CON GAIN Edinburgh Central (Ruth Davidson) fron SNP
CON GAIN Eastwood from Labour
CON GAIN Dumfries from Labour
LibDem GAIN Edinburgh West from SNP
LibDem GAIN North East Fife from SNP
Labour GAIN Edinburgh Southern from SNP

I also predict the LibDems will take "Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale"

Con holds all other seats, they are incredibly close second to the SNP throughout the rural North- East of Scotland ie the Grampian region. Take a look at places like Banff and Buchan, Perthshire North, et al.

[afleitch]

So SNP vote looks like it will be up on both constituency and region, but they may lose their majority. It's the wonder of maths. If anything, the SNP governed better when they didn't have a majority back in 2007 (and were only one seat ahead of Labour) A more fractured opposition also helps.

Very pleased to see the Conservatives come second, simply because Scotland has suffered from an drifting and unfocused opposition. Hopefully the print media adjusts to this reality.