Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Clyde1998]

How early can we put these threads up...?

Scottish Parliament election
Date: Thursday 5th May 2016

Recent Polling:
Constituency:
YouGov (29 Apr-1 May 15): SNP - 49%; Lab - 25%; Con - 15%; Lib - 7%; Others - 4%
Survation (22-27 Apr 15): SNP - 54%; Lab - 24%; Con - 13%; Lib - 5%; Others - 4%

Regional List:
YouGov (29 Apr-1 May 15): SNP - 43%; Lab - 24%; Con - 16%; Grn - 7%; Lib - 6%; Others - 5%
Survation (22-27 Apr 15): SNP - 44%; Lab - 21%; Con - 11%; Grn - 10%; Lib - 6%; Others - 6%

Seat Predictor - http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood/i]
Using averages of the two recent polls. Should be more accurate the straight FPTP, due to regional list.

SNP - 70 (+1)
Lab - 29 (-8)
Con - 16 (+1)
Grn - 8 (+6)
Lib - 6 (+1)
Ind - 0 (-1)
65 seats needed for majority

[Clyde1998]

I doubt we'll see swings like this during this election - as the shift has happened during a number of Scottish Parliament elections.

Is there a chance the Liberal Democrats will end up with more members of the Scottish Parliament than at Westminster?

Plausibly. The Lib Dems had between 15-20 MSPs between 1999 and 2011. If the Lib Dems get around 8% of the List Vote - it could happen.

[Clyde1998]

A year is a long time in politics (as I think the past year in Scottish politics demonstrates pretty clearly) and who knows what might change, but the SNP will obviously be re-elected.

I think the biggest questions - right now anyway - are:

Will the SNP be a majority government or not?
Could UKIP get an MSP?
How many seats with Labour lose?
How many Green MSPs will there be?

Although - as you say - a year is a very long time in politics. If the SNP perform badly at Westminster - then who knows what could happen...

[Clyde1998]

IIRC SLAB still have to decide the selection rules for list candidates....it will be fun..

will they run many of the now-unemployed former MPs or not do you think?

Unless they've left politics - Labour would be mad not to run people such as Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran in this election. Murphy is "running for First Minister"...

[Clyde1998]

Elation followed by mild disappointment among SNP supporters today; Jim Murphy narrowly survived a vote of no confidence, but has said he will resign next month.

Labour have got through a leader every two years since devolution in 1999...

I can't see anyone, who could become leader, who can challenge the SNP, at this early stage...

[Clyde1998]

TNS has the SNP on 60% in the constituency vote, 50% in the regions (due to the Greens taking 10%). All other parties below 20%.

http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/support-for-snp-rises-again-ahead-of-2016-holyrood-election

Apparently if that vote share happens - the Parliament will look something like this:
SNP - 73 (+4)
Lab - 25 (-12)
Con - 17 (+2)
Grn - 10 (+8)
Lib - 4 (-1)

How the constituency vote splits on the list:
SNP - 81% SNP; 10% Grn; 5% Lab; 3% Con; 1% Lib
Lab - 80% Lab; 6% SNP; 6% Grn; 4% Lib; 3% Con
Con - 80% Con; 5% Lib; 5% UKIP; 4% SNP; 3% Lab; 3% Grn
Lib - 84% Lib; 4% Lab; 2% Grn
Oth - 58% Grn; 22% UKIP; 8% Lab; 6% SSP
Und - 31% SNP; 23% Grn; 18% Lib; 12% UKIP; 11% Lab; 3% Oth

[Clyde1998]

The United Kingdom Parliament have voted down an amendment to the Scotland Bill made by the SNP:



This breaks the first five words of the 'vow' that the three party leaders made during the referendum campaign - "the Scottish Parliament is permanent" - and means that the United Kingdom Parliament can dissolve the Scottish Parliament when it suits them...

[Clyde1998]

The Scottish Parliament has voted unanimously to reduce the voting age in Scotland to 16 (from 18) and will come into affect for this election - this will only affect the voting age for elections that are exclusively Scottish (ie not UK/EU elections).

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 47% (+2%)
No - 53% (-2%)

[Clyde1998]

Could the Socialists get in?

Also does the Scottish pensioners party still exist?

Possibly - I don't know if they have polling figures or not though - and Yes.

Westminster:
SNP - 51% (+1% on 2015 Election)
Lab - 21% (-3%)
Con - 17% (+2%)
Lib - 7% (-1%)

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 48% (+3% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 52% (-3%)

If there was to be another referendum on Scottish independence when, if at all, do you think this referendum should take place?
Within 10 years?
Yes - 60%
No - 40%

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union? (respondents in Scotland only)
Yes - 66%
No - 34%

[Clyde1998]

TNS Poll:
Constituency ballot
SNP - 60% (+15% on 2011)
Lab - 20% (-12%)
Con - 14% (n/c)
Lib - 5% (-3%)

Regional list ballot
SNP - 51% (+7% on 2011)
Lab - 21% (-5%)
Con - 13% (+1%)
Grn - 7% (+3%)
Lib - 5% (n/c)

[Clyde1998]

TNS (Constituency)

SNP 62%
LAB 20%
CON 12%
LIB 3%

List:

SNP - 54%
Lab - 20%
Con - 12%
Grn - 8%
Lib - 4%
UKIP - 1%
SSP - 1%

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos MORI - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 53% (+8% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 44% (-11% on 2014 Referendum)
DK - 3%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 54.6% (+9.9%)
No - 45.4% (-9.9%)

That's one hell of a swing!

[Clyde1998]

List Vote:
SNP - 50%
Lab - 20%
Con - 12%
Grn - 8%
Lib - 7%
Oth - 3%

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos MORI - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 53% (+8% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 44% (-11% on 2014 Referendum)
DK - 3%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 54.6% (+9.9%)
No - 45.4% (-9.9%)

That's one hell of a swing!

It's also the first time ever that independence has been over 50% in a poll, including undecided voters.

[Clyde1998]

48% of people believe that the SNP have the best policies on Health and the NHS, compared to 18% for Labour. DK 15%; Con 9%; Lib 4%; Grn 3%; Oth 1%.

49% of people believe that the SNP have the best policies on Education, compared to 16% for Labour. DK 17%; Con 10%; Lib 4%; Grn 2%; Oth 1%.

40% of people believe that the SNP have the best policies on Crime and anti social behaviour, compared to 15% for the Tories. DK 23%; Lab 14%; Lib 4%; Grn 2%; Oth 2%.

36% of people believe that the Greens have the best policies on the environment, compared to 28% for the SNP. DK 16%; Lab 9%; Con 6%; Lib 4%; Oth 1%.

Net Approval Ratings:
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) +48%
Patrick Harvie (Grn) +31%
John Swinney (SNP) +18%
Ruth Davidson (Con) +9%
Kezia Dugdale (Lab) +1%
Willie Rennie (Lib) -5%
David Cameron (Con) -40%

Thinking about the possibility of holding another referendum on Scottish independence, please tell me whether you support or oppose another referendum being held in the event of each of the following circumstances...
One being held in the next five years: 50% Support; 46% Oppose
One being held in the next ten years: 58% Support; 37% Oppose
The UK leaving the EU after a referendum when voters in Scotland voted to stay in the EU: 52% Support; 39% Oppose
The UK voting in favour of "English votes for English Laws": 50% Support; 41% Oppose
The UK parliament voting of renewing the Trident nuclear deterrent: 41% Support; 47% Oppose

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos MORI - Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 53% (+8% on 2014 Referendum)
No - 44% (-11% on 2014 Referendum)
DK - 3%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 54.6% (+9.9%)
No - 45.4% (-9.9%)

That's one hell of a swing!

I presume much of that is due to generational turnover, assuming most younger Scots are more supportive of independence than their elders.  It may therefore be to Sturgeon's advantage to hold off on a second independence referendum (maybe 2020?) until after the EU referendum -among other reasons.  

The biggest change in vote is among the over 55s - maybe due to the UK government saying "if Scotland becomes independent, you'll get a lower pension" and then cutting people's pensions anyway.

The over 55s independence support has increased by around 15% since the referendum - although it remains the most pro-union age category - whereas the other age groups are broadly similar to the referendum date (but has increased slightly).

[Clyde1998]

[Clyde1998]

First opinion poll since Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader:

TNS-BMRB
Constituency ballot:
SNP - 56% (-2)
Lab - 21% (-2)
Con - 12% (n/c)
Lib - 6% (n/c)
Oth - 5% (+3)

Regional list ballot:
SNP - 52% (+1)
Lab - 23% (-1)
Con - 11% (n/c)
Lib - 6% (n/c)
Grn - 5% (-1)
UKIP - 3% (+2)
SSP - <1% (n/c)
Oth - 1% (n/c)

[Clyde1998]

Yougov (constituency/region/seats)

SNP 51/45 = 70
LAB 21/20 = 25
CON 19/19 = 25
LIB 5/5 = 4
GRN -/6 = 5

Conservatives beating Labour to second would be interesting...

Additionally: UKIP and SSP on 3% on the list and independence: as you were last month (48% Yes).

[Clyde1998]

A few months before the referendum Labour topped the poll in Glasgow and much of the rest of the Central Belt in the European elections and in prior to that had been doing decently in by-elections; yes, Euro elections are a low turnout joke and yes by-elections are what they are, but I think not so much that we can't say this is indicative that something pretty substantial changed as a result of the referendum campaign. Obviously long term problems contributed heavily and obviously there were also seriously important medium term political changes, but...

There was a Panelbase poll conducted on the 29th Sep - 1st Oct last year that showed the SNP at 34% and Labour at 32% - nationally. The next Panelbase poll, a month later, showed a 45%-28% margin.

I believe that the short term aftermath of the referendum caused many people to move to the SNP - from all parties (Lab -4%; Con -3%; Lib -2% compared to the September poll). However, it didn't happen instantly; it appeared to happen after Lamont resigned - when she exposed the internal issues within the Scottish Labour Party.

[Clyde1998]

A new TNS poll was released quietly today.

Constitutency:
SNP - 58% (+2)
Lab - 24% (+3)
Con - 12% (N/C)
Lib - 4% (-2)
 
List:
SNP - 52% (N/C)
Lab - 25% (+2)
Con - 11% (N/C)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
Lib - 5% (-1)
 
Approval Ratings:
Nicola Sturgeon +19% (5% don't know who they are)
Kezia Dugdale -16% (46% don't know who they are)
Jeremy Corbyn -21% (21% don't know who they are)
Ruth Davidson -24%  (30% don't know who they are)
David Cameron -47% (2% don't know who they are)

Seats (using ScotlandVotes)
SNP - 77 (+8)
Lab - 33 (-4)
Con - 11 (-4)
Lib - 5 (N/C)
Grn - 3 (+1)
SNP Majority of 24.

[Clyde1998]

So 98% of the Scottish electorate plans to vote for either an anti-austerity party, a party led by a lesbian or a social liberal party. Someone ought to tell Ben Carson to bomb the place.

They're pretty much your only options though.

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Man, some leftist true disciples I know will have their heads explode if they see that result.

There is a Panelbase poll that's going to be released over the weekend, and YouGov, Ipsos Mori and Survation are due a poll this month (based on the current cycles) - so we'll be able to check if that is backed up.

[Clyde1998]

TNS Poll (16 Nov-14 Dec)


SNP 58 / 54 (NC / +2)
Lab 21 / 20 (-3 / -5)
Con 12 / 12 (NC / +1)
Grn -- / 9 (-- / +4)
Lib 4 / 4 (NC / -1)
UKIP -- / <1 (-- / -1)

[Clyde1998]

Wasn't expecting this: http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/14183055.Nicola_Sturgeon_pledges__quot_renewed_debate_quot__on_independence/

Does Sturgeon know something about support for independence that the rest of us don't know?