Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[bore]

Some of the largest swings in 2015 were found in seats that Labour held in 2011. The SNP's 'base' has shifted somewhat.

Maybe the SNP base has shifted (although I'm not so sure shifted is the right word, as it's more that they've added more supporters as opposed to lost some and gained some others), but I don't think larger swings in the 2011 labour seats show that.

Those seats, at westminster, tend to be areas where labour previously racked up huge majorities, so for the SNP to win them there had to be a massive swing, whereas in seats labour got less in a swing on the level of glasgow northeast would have led to banana republic level of SNP support, which just couldn't happen because while (current) support for the SNP and independence is fairly well distributed so is opposition.

[bore]

The election doesn't feel very 'electiony'. Oh and Edinburgh's schools are falling down.

I think that's the natural result of an election where the party that is in power with a huge majority will win with a similarly huge majority. And you've got the EU referendum sucking up any UK wide coverage.

Also my primary school (built in 2005) is one of the most seriously affected schools. That said its by no means just the PFI schools which are atrocious. Liberton High School (built sometime in the 60s IIRC) is probably the most notorious as a wall actually fell down in the girls changing room killing an S1, with a similar incident involving a pupil being seriously injured falling down the lift shaft. It's largely a case of wrecks replacing wrecks (My own secondary which is new but pre PFI seems fine but it's early days) As is often the case though, pretty much anything built after the war was a shoddy job. Maybe it's time to fire everyone involved and replace them with Victorians.

[bore]

I am a bit confused at how a majority of scots support a new Independence ref but the majority would just vote against it again. Do Scots now have passion of electoral type things?

Presumably the thinking among the No voters who'd want a referendum is if it happens again and No wins the Yes voters will have to shut up about it, as they promised to do before the last one, for the next 20 or 30 years at least.

[bore]

Scattered predictions and hot takes to brag about if I'm right and never mention if I'm wrong:

Labour will gain my seat of Edinburgh Southern, and lose every other seat.  Though they will be close in East Lothian, Edinburgh North and Leith and Coatbridge and Chryston (this is the odd one out because the SNP candidate is so terrible.

The Conservatives will have the night they always have in scotland and get about 20 seats. Labour will be comfortably ahead with roughly 27, the SNP will get around 70, the lib dems around 7 and the greens around 7. UKIP will be almost non existent and RISE (lol) will be even worse.

The SNP will hold Edinburgh Central (due to a split field) and Glasgow Kelvin comfortably (although Harvie will be in a strong 2nd place)

The Greens will gain 2 seats on the glasgow list and only 1 on the edinburgh list they will get 1 in most other areas of the country too.

The Lib Dems will gain Edinburgh West and hold orkney and shetland.

The tories will hold all their constituencies apart from Ayr.

[bore]

The Lib Dems will not gain Edinburgh West: they'll probably struggle to hold both of Orkney and Shetland

The whole point of bold predictions is if you're wrong then everyone forgets but if you're right you're hailed as a genius.

Anyway the Edinburgh West SNP is wildly unpopular for obvious reasons, the lib dems are really active in Edinburgh West, they did much better in the westminster constituency than anyone expected and it is, like the rest of edinburgh, after all, a unionist stronghold so there will probably be a squeeze on the tories and labour.

[bore]

By the way me and others will be discussing the election in IRC tonight, link here: client02.chat.mibbit.com

Type in your username next to nick and "#atlasforum" next to channel

Labour will gain my seat of Edinburgh Southern

You may well be right. It is a three-way marginal though (between SNP [29.4% in 2011], Labour [27.4%] & Lib Dem [24.6%]), so any unionist tactical voting could be interesting there.

Yes. My thinking is the lib dem vote will crater due to them no longer running a popular incumbent, with labour picking up most of that vote, the tories staying roughly where they are and the SNP increasing by a bit but not by enough.

[bore]

There is no getting around the fact that this was a terrible night for labour and an exceptional one for the tories. But I still think that people are overstating what happened at least from a conservative perspective. Despite everything, for example, labour still received slightly more constituency votes than the tories, the tories did about 3 points better on the list, but even so that doesn't quite fit the narrative. Similarly, 22% is impressive for the tories in scotland, but it's only impressive for tories in scotland (and, like, sunderland) and we shouldn't forget that. Perhaps the most important issue event of the election is the gradual return of the tartan tories to the party in paces like northeast scotland and perthshire, and I think, when the froth of a terrible labour performance and a very popular SNP and Green Party has faded from scottish politics, the lasting impact of this election will be a significantly increased tory share (albeit lower than in most areas in england) based on these votes.

Scattered predictions and hot takes to brag about if I'm right and never mention if I'm wrong:

A mixed bag of predictions, obviously I trusted the polling a bit too much and in particular underestimated tory support in the constituencies.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Right about Edinburgh Southern, wrong about the result but right that East Lothian would be very close unlike most labour seats, wrong about Coatbridge and Chryston and very wrong about Edinburgh North and Leith (Hinds was obviously nowhere near as popular as Lazarowicz). Didn't see Dumbarton coming at all.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I slightly overestimated the SNP and labour (but in seats my prediction wasn't bad), was basically right about the lib dems and the greens, ukip and RISE (lol). The tories were obviously underestimated.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Right about Kelvin, wrong about Central, although a split field does mean anything can happen. While Edinburgh Central is an impressive gain for the tories, 30% is still a very low winning share by most standards.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Switch Glasgow and Edinburgh, but otherwise right. Both votes SNP really screwed the greens in glasgow.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Correct, although I didn't see Northeast Fife (but who did?)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wrong about Ayr, and I didn't see the gains.