Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[afleitch]

Much drama within Scottish Labour presently, which is hardly surprising given everything.

Because Chernenko Murphy won't go. And Labour (not Scottish Labour) seems to be insistent on him staying and they all filed into a meeting and told the world they loved him. Except those that said nothing. And those that resigned from the Shadow Cabinet at Holyrood where the power should lie and have always lain. And those who dedicated themselves at Holyrood from 1999-2011 and expected to have another pop in 2016 might now be thrown under the bus so that the MP's that people secretly loved (and this was all just a 'horrendous mistake by the public who don't hate them personally you see') like Magrit and Sarwar can be welcomed back. And the list MSP's who didn't think they'd get in through the back door but have worked there socks off as non career politicians often do, will also have to be thrown under the bus.

That's the perception/fear anyway.

[afleitch]

No Parliament can be bound by its predecessors so what was being proposed was dead letter.

The principle of Parliamentary sovereignty has no counterpart in Scots Law.

While it has not been effectively tested (though in the current climate it might be), the provisions of the Scotland Act 1998 (in particular the relationship between parliament, law making and the Court of Session) have complicated this further.

[afleitch]

Survation (constituency/list)

SNP 56/45
LAB 20/19
CON 14/12
LIB 7/8
OTH 4
GRN -/11
UKIP -/5

Seat projection:

SNP 71
LAB 24
CON 14
GRN 12
LD 7
UKIP 1

[afleitch]

TNS (Constituency)

SNP 62%
LAB 20%
CON 12%
LIB 3%

[afleitch]

Some of the largest swings in 2015 were found in seats that Labour held in 2011. The SNP's 'base' has shifted somewhat.

[afleitch]

Hopefully the Tories can close the gap. I imagine with a Corbyn led Labour party they might not be so keen to tactically vote Labour.

[afleitch]

I might put money on the Tories beating Labour on the regional vote next year.

[afleitch]

If the SNP does lose its majority (not likely of course) will they draft the Greenies as coalition partners or go at it alone in a minority?

Go it alone. They did it when they had only one more seat than Labour.

On the poll front we have this from YouGov

Constituency

SNP 51 (+2)
LAB 22 (-3)
CON 18 (+3)
LIB 4 (-3)

Regional

SNP 45 (+2)
LAB 20 (-4)
CON 18 (+2)
LIB 4 (-2)
GRN 6 (-1)
UKIP 3 (+1)
LEFT 3

Seats

SNP 71 (+2)
LAB 26 (-9)
CON 24 (+9)
LIB 3 (-2)
GRN 5 (+3)

[afleitch]

In that poll, the SNP wins support from 91% of Yes supporters. Amongst No supporters, Labour get 40% to the Tories 33%. With Corbyn, I don't see much continued 'lending' of votes by Tories/Liberals to Labour.

In terms of how 'left wing' someone is;

Corbyn -74
Sturgeon -44
Salmond -35
Dugdale -22
Davidson +56

However, SNP voters think Corbyn is less left wing that than anyone else (-65) Labour have him at -84 and Tories at -90.

[afleitch]

Yougov (constituency/region/seats)

SNP 51/45 = 70
LAB 21/20 = 25
CON 19/19 = 25
LIB 5/5 = 4
GRN -/6 = 5

[afleitch]

Conservatives beating Labour to second would be interesting...

Corbyn would probably be a goner if that happened

Really? It wouldn't be his fault. The decline of Labour in Scotland is caused by a realignment, not something any individual Labour leader can be held responsible for.

To an extent yes. But the re-alignment happened four years ago and the election in May simply confirmed it. 2011 (Scotland and mediocre English local election results in 2011) should have been a sign that something was wrong, but Miliband stayed the course. Political parties have an inbuilt ability to keep making the same mistakes.

[afleitch]

A few months before the referendum Labour topped the poll in Glasgow and much of the rest of the Central Belt in the European elections and in prior to that had been doing decently in by-elections; yes, Euro elections are a low turnout joke and yes by-elections are what they are, but I think not so much that we can't say this is indicative that something pretty substantial changed as a result of the referendum campaign. Obviously long term problems contributed heavily and obviously there were also seriously important medium term political changes, but...

2010 aside, the SNP have bested Labour in every national election (including European and council) since 2007. The movement in 2015 was simply an extension of the movement that had already happened in 2011 (the polls showed that the SNP carried their 2011 voter base with them, while fragmentation in the other parties was along similar, but stronger lines)

It's been somewhat incorrect for pundits to consider 2010 as a 'base' which was then affected by the referendum result from which to measure voting behaviour. The Yes base were the voters who had backed the SNP in 2011; it just took the next four years for that base to be brought voting Yes (in part reinforced by leaning SNP anyway)

The only significant shift in voters between 2011 and 2015 that has so far been measured was the shift in Catholic voters from being one of the weakest pools of support for the SNP to being the strongest (overtaking the Nones). This was Labour's fault. The Labour Party has never called itself or framed itself as a 'unionist' party. The fact we had a Labour Party in the early part of the 20th century effectively saved Scotland from the threat of Ulster style party political sectarianism. In one campaign (which it shockingly allowed itself to lead) Labour (unintentionally) alienated it's century old Catholic base without really thinking about the language it was using.

[afleitch]

Afleitch, could you please elaborate on the language used that alienated Labour's Catholic base?

Union. Flag. Queen. Tradition. British.

[afleitch]

Ipsos MORI (Con/List)

SNP 50/46
LAB 20/19
CON 18/16
LIB 7/8
GRN 3/7
UKIP 1/1
OTH 1/2

EU Referendum

REMAIN 65
LEAVE 22
DK 13

[afleitch]

I think it's worth noting that the 24% Labour got in May included a lot of lent votes. This balances itself out somewhat with those votes moving to the Conservatives. I would be surprised if the Tories bested Labour in the constituency vote, though they might win more constituency seats. I can't see Labour falling below 20%; I think that is their floor. But if they are caught in terminal decline, and their vote share amongst under 60's remains abysmal, then they might start to shift southwards.

[afleitch]

I think they know their activist base are very hyped for independence, and they don't want to dissipate it by officially rejecting a referendum in the next parliament.

Is there any chance this RISE coalition will enter parliament?

RISE aren't registering in polls; Generic Socialists are getting less than 1%.

[afleitch]

Survation 8-12 January

The changes on the last poll is from September

Constituency/Region

SNP 52/42 (-1,0)
LAB 21/20 (-1,-1)
CON 16/16 (+2,+3)
LIB 7/8 (+1,+2)
GRN -/9 (-2)

[afleitch]

TNS poll for completeness

Constituency ballot :


SNP 57% (-2)
Labour 21% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 3% (-1)


Regional list ballot :


SNP 52% (-1)
Labour 19% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (+6)
Greens 6% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)

[afleitch]

YouGov - trolololol?

Constituency ballot :

SNP 49% (-1)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Labour 19% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 43% (+1)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Labour 17% (-3)
Greens 8% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (+1)

Seat forecast.

SNP 70
CON 25
LAB 20
GRN 9
LIB 5

[afleitch]

Survation





Seat Projection

SNP 70
CON 22
LAB 21
GRN 9
LIB 6
UKIP 1

[afleitch]

I've known about Kezia for years in part because I am in social circles that in some edges overlap with hers. Good for her for being upfront about it.

[afleitch]

Vote Match thingy

http://www.scotvote16.com/#!/

Quite good because it, rightly, placed a lot of focus on constitutional issues.

Be sure to check out the drop down 'matrix', as it measures not only social-economic issues but constitutional issues v social/economic ones.

[afleitch]

The election doesn't feel very 'electiony'. Oh and Edinburgh's schools are falling down.

[afleitch]

http://vote.cutbot.net/

A new seat forecaster. Also gives projected constituency results (now we actually know who's standing there)

[afleitch]

What is worth saying is that we may have a legitimate battle for second place. Labour in third would be devastating for them.